DON OFF THE RAILS

Donald Trump isn’t a man known for living up to his promises. But that didn’t stop him from making a lot of them on the campaign trail about his first steps in office. Shudder along with us, as we take just a brief look at what he’s said he’ll do, and the roadblocks he’ll face.

• Deportations: Former President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to conduct the largest mass deportation of immigrants in history, including some who are legally in the United States — using an archaic law from 1798. Trump and his allies are already quietly preparing to secure detention spaces and carry out sweeping arrests. But it’s far from clear how Trump’s big talk will become reality. The plan he’s boasted about would cost billions and severely disrupt industries like construction and agriculture. That may explain why Trump’s team is now talking about focusing on undocumented migrants who have committed crimes, as CNN reported today. One big unresolved question: How the Trump administration will treat “Dreamers,” immigrants brought to the U.S. as kids and have traditionally enjoyed support from both parties. The American Civil Liberties Union and other immigrant advocacy groups are gearing up for intense legal battles to try and stop Trump’s worst impulses.

• Firing career bureaucrats, installing loyalists: Trump and his allies have said he plans a sweeping change that would turn large numbers of federal workers into at-will employees. Technically speaking, that would mean reimposing his schedule F executive order from 2020, which also happens to be a key platform position of the infamous far-right Project 2025 agenda. The result could be that tens of thousands of federal employees lose employment protections, making it far easier for Trump to staff the government with boot-licking loyalists. Impact: Trump loyalty goes way up, and (we assume) general government employee competence goes way down — since loyalty will be the qualification, not, like, being good at your job.

• Economy: Trump promised to build on his past tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, abolish tax on social security benefits (which might be impossible), and slap hefty tariffs on foreign goods — which even billionaire conspiracist Elon Musk admitted would hurt people’s wallets, at least for a while. Economists warn Trump’s tariff plan would likely raise prices and cost workers jobs, which is, of course, ironic, given that anger over inflation helped Trump win this election. Companies like AutoZone and Black & Decker have warned Trump’s plans would mean they’d have to raise prices. Deporting immigrants could create a labor shortage that also helps drive up prices, especially in food and housing. Trump’s deportation plan “would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability problems,” Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, told NBC in October. Sooo, yeah. A fundamentally heartless plan that defeats its own purpose. Sounds like Trump 2.0, alright.

• Healthcare: Trump claimed to have “concepts” of a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act, the healthcare plan that an estimated 50 million Americans have used — and which he tried (and failed) to kill during his first term. Shocker! We still don’t know the concepts, if they exist at all. Because Republicans control the Senate, however, lawmakers could allow the major subsidies to expire. Those same subsidies, which could cost $300 billion if extended over a decade, were key to enrolling a record number of people in the ACA. Over 3 million people would lose insurance coverage if Republicans let the plan sunset and the cost of plans increases, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate.

• Foreign policy: Trump hasn’t given a clear idea of how he plans to handle the world’s most pressing conflicts, including the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza wars. But he has said he wants them to be over very, very soon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already cozying up to Trump, what’s likely an attempt to bolster U.S. support for his devastating war in Gaza, which local health officials estimate has killed over 44,000 people. Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelenskyy has also been trying to stay on Trump’s good side, likely hoping that he will maintain support for Ukraine — and even give Kyiv the weapons it says it needs to win the war. But there are already signs of tension: Zelenskyy argued today that Trump’s plan for a quick peace deal to end Russia’s war with Ukraine would amount to a “loss.” While Trump seems to want a rapid agreement,  “it doesn’t mean that it will happen this way,” Zelenskyy told reporters.

• Climate: Trump promised to gut the Biden administration’s landmark climate policy, the Inflation Reduction Act. The good news is that the White House has already been able to get much of that money out the door, giving tax credits to people and companies that invest in green projects. It would be very difficult for the Trump administration to claw back those funds, but unspent money could potentially be in danger. Experts believe a rollback of the program would be a major blow to progress the U.S. has made to address climate change. Democrats are now pleading for Republicans to keep the law intact, pointing to the huge number of jobs it has created, especially in GOP-controlled areas.

Donald Trump won the White House, and Republicans won the Senate, as expected. But it’s also looking possible that the House could stay in GOP control — a total nightmare scenario for Democrats. But all hope isn’t lost. As ever, there are plenty of ways to plug in at the local level. We’ve been here before, and somehow, America made it through.

NEWS NEWS NEWS

Donald Trump named campaign manager Susan Wiles as his chief of staff, according to the New York Times.

The world’s 10 richest people became richer by a total of $64 billion on the day after Trump’s election win as the stock market surged. The biggest winner was billionaire conspiracist Elon Musk, who saw a $26.5 billion bump, followed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos who got $7.1 billion richer. Champion of the working class!

Ironically, though, Trump’s own media company stock tanked 23 percent on Thursday, after spiking Wednesday in the wake of the election. Don’t worry, it’s Business Genius stuff, you wouldn’t understand.

January 6 insurrectionists are hoping they’ll score pardons, as Trump repeatedly promised on the campaign trail. If Trump keeps his word, it would be a “repudiation of the largest criminal investigation ever undertaken by the Justice Department,” the New York Times writes. Cool cool cool.

President Joe Biden called for the country to “bring down the temperature” today, in a speech promising a peaceful transfer of power. “I’ve said many times: You can’t love your country only when you win,” Biden said. I’ll miss having someone in office who thinks January 6 was a bad thing that shouldn’t be repeated.

The drama in Trump’s inner circle has already begun [insert popcorn emoji] with campaign adviser Chris LaCivita telling fellow adviser Corey Lewandowski that he has “fucked with the wrong person. I’m going to fucking destroy you.” That was LaCivita’s response after Lewandowski, who is rumored to have leaked negative stories about LaCivita in recent months, tried to make amends after Trump’s win. We are so back, in all the worst ways.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) called on Golden State lawmakers to convene a special session to discuss how to safeguard the state’s progressive policies from the incoming Trump administration. California Democrats are ready to “Trump-proof” policies, including those about reproductive rights, immigration and climate change which Trump could target, Newsom’s office told the Associated Press.

A judge gave Trump crony Rudy Giuliani another week to hand his valuables over to the former election workers who sued him for defamation. Giuliani’s lawyers told the judge that they weren’t sure where some of his valuable stuff is — a claim that Judge Lewis J. Liman dismissed as “farcical.” Giuliani was photographed riding in the 1980 Mercedes-Benz he was supposed to hand over in Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday

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