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Alex talks about the hottest issue leading up to next week’s election….the 2026 election. California’s Proposition 50 is a power play by Governor Newsom and Democrats to fight back against Republican gerrymandering in Texas, in the hopes of saving Democratic seats in Congress in the midterm elections. Now a firestorm has ignited with states across the country launching redistricting efforts, and both parties have come to play. First, Alex hears about grassroots efforts to tackle the issue from Richard von Glahn, the Executive Director of People Not Politicians in Missouri. Then she speaks to democratic strategist David Plouffe about the moral quandary Democrats find themselves in, and why our hyper partisan political environment necessitates a gloves-off approach.

TRANSCRIPT

[AD BREAK]

Alex Wagner: Hi, everyone. Election Day 2025 is five days away, but perhaps you have noticed that everyone this week is talking about Election Day 2026, the midterm elections. Now, every election matters, even and especially the 2025 elections. Governor’s races are in Virginia and New Jersey. There is Mamdani madness in New York City. But in the age of Donald Trump, elections that determine the balance of power at the national level are crucial. With a president who has spent the last nine months trying to establish himself as a monarch, literally, and has been enabled to do this by a Republican Congress, one of the most powerful bulwarks against Trump crowning himself king and continuing to ride roughshod over our U.S. Constitution is the House of Representatives. If Democrats can flip the House in the 2026 midterms, it would be a significant safeguard for American democracy. Trump could be stopped legislatively, he could be investigated officially and actually, and otherwise just held accountable on a number of fronts. This is not a false hope. Midterm elections, if you remember, often punish the party in power. And right now, the party in power is terrorizing communities with ICE dragnets, storming cities with national guard troops, and oh, by the way, sending the cost of living through the roof. So Democrats taking back the lower chamber is a very, very real possibility, which is exactly why Trump is trying to stop this using every tool he has. But this time, Democrats seem ready to fight fire with fire. I’m Alex Wagner, and this is Runaway Country. In today’s episode, we’ll be talking about Trump’s pressure campaign to gerrymander the hell out of blue votes in red states and how it’s all unfolding on the ground. Back in July, the president convinced lawmakers in Texas to redraw their voting maps, which was not something they were scheduled to do until the year 2030, when there was a new census. And these new Texas maps now guarantee Republicans five more seats in the House. But Trump didn’t stop there. He has now called for partisan redistricting in a number of Republican-controlled states, including Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Nearly all of those states are defying their established redistricting schedules, ones that correspond to the arrival of new census data in order to appease Donald Trump, to basically let Trump run up the score before even a single vote is cast in 2026. It is brazen and it is decidedly undemocratic, but it is what’s happening. The upshot here though, is that public outcry has been tremendous. There have been multiple significant legal challenges. There is likely going to be a citizen-forced referendum, which we’ll have more on in a moment. And then of course, there is California’s Proposition 50, Governor Gavin Newsom’s bold plan to take the fight right to Trump’s doorstep. Prop 50 would reverse the current California state law that uses an independent commission to draw congressional districts. And it would give that power back to the state legislature through 2030, a state legislature that, by the way, is a democratic super majority. In other words, Prop 50 would allow California to gerrymander red districts in order to send more Democrats to Congress, essentially to cancel out the gerrymandering elsewhere in the country where Republicans are eating up Democratic seats. California voters will decide whether they support this measure in less than a week. And it is the first major test of a newly aggressive Democratic playbook and the whole country is watching. Today, we’re gonna talk with David Plouffe. The veteran Democratic strategist, about whether it is time to take the gloves off and start bare-knuckle brawling. Between California’s take no prisoners approach and Congressional Democrats playing hardball on a government shutdown that, as of this recording, remains very much in place, it is a steep slope. And it can be hard to tell whether we are sliding down or finally finding a foothold. But first, we are heading to Missouri to understand how this is all playing out at ground zero. Because the good people of Missouri, at least, are not taking voter suppression lying down. Organizers likeRichard Von Glahn, the executive director of a group called People not Politicians, they’re knocking on doors and visiting libraries, hanging out at farmers markets and trying to collect over 100,000 signatures in time to get a referendum on the 2026 ballot. That would give voters and not Trump fearing Republicans the power to reject Missouri’s newly gerrymandered maps and could be a powerful template for the rest of the country. Not to mention a major shot in the arm for fans of representative democracy. So here’s that conversation. Richard, thank you for giving me a sense of what’s happening in a state that I don’t usually look to [laughs] for hope for democratic ideals, but what you’re doing down there is really interesting. Thanks for your time today.

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Alex.

Alex Wagner: Let’s just start at the top, which is, you know, what was your reaction when Missouri announced it was going to redistrict in an off year as a favor to Donald Trump?

Richard Von Glahn: I mean, I think my initial reaction was the same as actually a lot of Republican legislators when Donald Trump suggested this, they said, no, we’ve already done redistricting, we do it once a year, we have never done a mid cycle thing. And so I think everyone was caught off guard by this demand from him. But then, obviously, many of our legislators started folding pretty quickly. And so we knew we had a real problem on our hand, and we had to get mobilizing.

Alex Wagner: So you say initially even if there’s bipartisan concern about it, were you angry? Were you surprised? I mean, just as a citizen and an engaged person in Missouri politics, like what did it feel like?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, I mean, we’ve never done this before. So it’s sort of, you know, I’m engaged in our democracy, but you kind of feel like, you know what the rules are, and you know, what the goalposts are, you can battle within that framework. And sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose, but the rules don’t fundamentally shift and alter. And so this sort of feels like you’re in the middle of a board game with your kid or something, and then all of a sudden the rules are completely different and he automatically wins. And so, you know, it rightfully angered a lot of people.

Alex Wagner: For people who haven’t paid attention. This is all part of the broader effort to kind of claw out Republican seats. And if you could give me a sense of how the new maps compared to the original maps.

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, Missouri is actually already a gerrymandered state. We regularly about 40% of our population votes for Democrats, about 60% vote for Republicans. We our congressional representation is six Republicans and two Democrats. So 60% gets you 75 and 40% gets your 25. So we’re already a gerrymandered state. This would take it from a 6-2 map to a 7-1 map and be one of the most extreme gerrymanders in the country.

Alex Wagner: Wow. And and like you talk about Republicans initially having some trepidation about it. Did you did anybody try and talk to them? I mean, what was it like to watch that watch people fold effectively?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, I mean, we certainly did. And a lot of them just sort of shrugged their shoulders and said, Well, you know, do you know what we’re supposed to do against this man? I mean we got—

Alex Wagner: No, really?

Richard Von Glahn: Of Donald Trump called and was put on speakerphone. And our governor said, you see how hard it is to say no to this guy? It was just really pretty pathetic, honestly, I will say there were, there was a bipartisan no vote in both the house and the Senate. One Republican Senator, a man named Lincoln Hough, who was the chairman of the budget committee voted no because he knows it is wrong. He lost his chairmanship to one of the most powerful committees that exists. So, you know, there are people of conscience out there. There are people who stood up, but of course, when he stood up for what he felt was right, he was punished, and that’s the way that Donald Trump moves his agenda forward.

Alex Wagner: So as these Republicans are folding in large part, except for one of them, you see the moment as an opportunity to start mobilizing. Can you talk a little bit about kind of how you came to that and what your group is doing?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, we weren’t entirely sure how people were going to react. You know, gerrymandering, do people really focus about district lines? And so, you know, we sort of put out a call for some community meetings to see, well, what would happen if we just said, you know, come to the space and let’s talk about it. And, you know, with less than two weeks notice, I mean, we had overflowing capacity in every corner of the state, St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, Columbia, You know, Republican-led districts, Democratic-led districts. It led to us, in less than three weeks time, pulling off what reporters have called the largest rally in Jefferson City in the history of the state. Jefferson City being our state capital, nearly 5,000 people descended on the state capital to say not to do this.

Alex Wagner: So the idea is to try and stop the legislation that the governor signed by getting a ballot measure, right, for next November that would overturn the new maps. And in order to do that, you gotta get a certain number of signatures, is that right?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, it’s part of our state constitution that if our legislature does passes a law or a bill that we don’t like. We can gather, it’s about 110,000 signatures in six of eight congressional districts, so geographic diversity, but if we can gather enough signatures in 90 days, we can put that law on hold until we get a chance to vote for it. It is not an easy undertaking, but it has been done 27 times in the history of our state and we’re going to be the 28th because people are fired up and we are gathering signatures at a historic pace.

Alex Wagner: Yeah, I think the it was the Missouri Independent reported that of the 27 times a referendum has been placed on the ballot in Missouri, the voters have rejected the actions of the General Assembly every single time except for twice. So like 27, 27 efforts, 25 of which were successful. That’s an incredible batting average. Tell me about when you say people are engaged, who’s outraged and just tell me sort of what the emotional tenor of those conversations are when you’re talking to people about them.

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, we’re knocking on doors. We’re outside of libraries. We are at farmer’s markets. I mean, we have people coming out and hugging us, you know, texting their neighbors, hey, the campaign’s in the neighborhood, make sure that you come out and sign. It’s really an amazing response. I think the other thing that we get is we have people who will say to us, You know, I’m a Republican, and I know this is wrong. Because what voters want is political accountability. They don’t want to be used as political pawns in Donald Trump’s game.

Alex Wagner: Is it across age and demographic groups?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, I think it is it is across age. I mean, I saw a note yesterday. We had a woman sign on her 91st birthday. She was very excited. As she said us knocking on our door was like her birthday gift to her. So that’s always heartwarming to see. And we have college students just last week. I was talking to a group of college students who were telling me about how they don’t really feel that we live in a democracy because their voices are not heard. They know gerrymandering, campaign finance, photo IDs, all of these things are designed to manipulate our democracy. And they were really excited to see that there’s actually an opportunity to fight for an ideal. We don’t have to be cynical, we can be visionary. And so that’s where we’re getting help from.

Alex Wagner: The attorney general of your state has a press release calling your group basically an astroturf group funded by outside donors and saying that you guys are the ones who are actually trying to subvert the will of the state. I think the title is of the press release is Attorney General Hanaway fights out of state dark money groups attempting to hijack Missouri’s constitutional authority. Well, what was your response to that?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, I mean, the majority of our donors are in Missouri. Our largest donor is in Missouri, I’ve lived in Missouri for 25 years, the over 150,000 people that have signed this petition are all Missourians. And everyone who’s going to vote on this are going to be Missourian. So we’re excited about that. We’re excited to give Missourians the opportunity to decide what Missouri values are. And seemingly Katherine Hanaway is terrified about that, and is going to try to distract and confuse people and say things that are just untrue. The Secretary of State has spread some mistruths about the signature collection process. And all those actions do is send us more volunteers because it displays their hypocrisy and their arrogance. And that’s what voters are responding to.

Alex Wagner: You said that the Secretary of State is trying to spread misinformation about the signatures. Can you explain that a little bit more?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, he put out a press release saying that he was just arbitrarily not going to count the first 100,000 signatures that had come in. He delayed approving the form that needed to be done, but ultimately he approved the very petition that every single one of our people have signed. He has said, yes, this is the correct form. This is what you should do. But then he just kind of arbitrarily said, um, I’m not going to count the first 100,000 signatures of this. That’s ridiculous. He also went as far to say, you know, if you circulated this ahead of time, this might be a crime. He has an administrative duty only. He has said, yeah, the form that you sent me, this is the correct form. This is what you should gather signatures on. But I’m not going to count the ones before I gave you my blessing. That’s a ridiculous argument. He has no basis in law to make it. But. You know, again, they just try to confuse and intimidate people.

Alex Wagner: You have a limited window in which you can gather these signatures, right? It has to be 90 days. So the more that, you know, they can slow walk the start of that, the harder it makes it for you guys. Is that the idea?

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, we have a 90-day. We have to be done by December 11th. He took 32 days to approve the form. It should take him 15. And I should say the Missouri Supreme Court has stood on the side of voters on this. They have explicitly said politicians do not have the right to interfere or impede what is again our constitutional right. Missourians have a constitutional right to the referendum. It’s not a statutory thing. It is key to the fabric of our democracy. It has been in our state Constitution since 1875. So we are not going to let the actions of a rogue secretary of state diminish what is our constitutional right and heritage.

Alex Wagner: What you’re trying to do is unrig the maps. What governor Newsom in California is doing is something different. He is saying we are going to fight fire with fire. We are going to have a citizen sanctioned. I’m not going to call it gerrymander, but we’re going to redraw the maps in a way that advantage Democrats in order to counter the anti-democratic efforts in red states. It is a different. It is a different position and a different strategy, all part of the same battle, I guess, but it is getting into the mud pit, if you will. Do you have a feeling about that kind of strategy? Is it a good strategy, but a dangerous precedent, or, I mean, how do you think about it? They’re parallel efforts happening at the same time.

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah, I mean, I think you can’t, when you’re engaged in a fight to save democracy, you can’t tie a hand behind your back. Now, you know, I don’t live in California. I’ve never lived in California, I’m pretty focused on Missouri and what Missourians want and how, how we want to respond to this. I think, you look across the country, any polling that you do, people will say partisan gerrymandering is wrong. It is wrong. But at the same time, tying your hand behind your back and allowing one party to engage in it, while the other just says this is wrong, this is wrong, is a good way to end up in a minority. And it’s been made abundantly clear that the Republicans won’t even respect the power of the minority in the House or Senate. And so. You know, you don’t want to be such an absolutist that your values die, you know, but our values here are about political accountability and political accountability for politicians of all stripes.

Alex Wagner: So you see it as the sort of end game of. Defeating anti-democratic forces is going to require the embrace of different strategies.

Richard Von Glahn: Yeah. And I think what California is looking to do, I think, is a temporary measure to say, we have to respond to this crisis. And then, you know, we’re going to get back to doing things the way that we need to be. But I think you look across the country, is the United States in a crisis about democracy? I think we are. I think were the oldest democracy in the world. People would say, and I think we are facing some real existential challenges here over the next couple of years, and this is part of it. And so we really need to fight for the soul of our nation—

Alex Wagner: You know, there’s so much sense, there is such a sense of impending, well, not impending but just doom and a sense, I think, on the part of a lot of citizens, not just Democrats or progressives, but that there is so little to be done and one of the things that’s so extraordinary about what you’re doing is that it’s a real sign of hope and like a real could be, as you say, could be the thing that thwarts this entire 2026 steal that’s being launched in daylight by the Trump administration, as you go about the work, can you tell me how you feel day to day and just what it’s like, you know, in a state where you’re going to be gerrymandered no matter what, but the question is, can you stave off the just injustice enough to get a national outcome that’s fairer?

Richard Von Glahn: Apathy, cynicism, these are the enemies. These are ultimately the things that anti-democratic forces want. It’s not just fighting over a map or different things, but it’s when we begin to believe that democracy doesn’t work. Or that we can’t do it in the United States. But when I see rooms filled, you know, people bringing in petitions, signatures of their neighbors, that really restores my hope. And I get to see that a lot these days. And the thing I left the class with last week, as I said, you know, there’s the famous quote of MLK of the arc of the moral universe is long and bends towards justice, but the point is it doesn’t magically bend. It is our job to actually bend the arc of the moral universe towards justice. We have agency in these fights, and that’s the thing that we have to remember. And when we engage that agency, we win. We win.

Alex Wagner: Well. Lucky you that you get to be in those rooms and lucky us that we as citizens of the same shared democracy get to benefit from your efforts. So Richard, thank you so much for giving us a sense of what’s happening down on the ground in Missouri where things are taking an interesting path. I appreciate your time.

Richard Von Glahn: Thank you. I appreciate it. I encourage people across the country, if you want to follow our campaign, you can go to our website, which is just peoplenotpoliticiansmo.org. Ultimately, we know this is Missourians’ fight, but any support we can get helps us keep printing petitions and getting pens and providing water and doing all of the pieces. So. We appreciate everyone and we look forward to Missouri really being a model for the nation.

Alex Wagner: Thanks, Richard.

Richard Von Glahn: Thank you.

Alex Wagner: After the break, my conversation with David Plouffe.

[AD BREAK]

Alex Wagner: David, thank you for joining me. It’s been a minute. I feel like it was maybe before the election, which is the last time we spoke. [laughs]

David Plouffe: A lot’s happened since then.

Alex Wagner: A lot has happened sir um okay let’s start where we left our audience off um which is the fight that’s happening um over congressional districts the timing’s quite unusual which is not a subtle part of the strategy on donald trump’s part but we were talking with richard von glan who’s an activist and organizer in Missouri about the the work he’s doing there to basically unwind a like shockingly partisan gerrymander all at Trump’s behest so that he can basically run up the score ahead of that anybody even takes a vote in the 2026 midterms. You know for in the recent past the the fight against gerrymandering and the fight to have more fair house districts has been a democratic fight right and though this is citizen led there’s pretty clear partisan lines in Missouri. It’s progressives, Democrats, there’s some Republicans, but they’re fighting against a almost uniformly Republican movement to basically give the state to Trump. And then in your state in California, it’s the opposite where Proposition 50 is basically a corrective measure, but nonetheless it embraces the partisan gerrymander. And I wonder, big picture, does the ethical inversion, we’ll call it, Does that does it concern you?

David Plouffe: I mean, these are unusual times. I don’t think Donald Trump and his MAGA acolytes, you know, in the House and across the country, they’re not doing this to improve their chances of winning the election. They’re basically doing it to make the election irrelevant. The desperation is so clear. He’s easy to read in that way. This is the thing he’s most focused on is making sure he can do everything he can to not have a Democratic House in 26. And so I think you kind of have to suspend the normal ways you think about things. They are trying to maximize their chances of doing everything they can to hold the house, kind of regardless of voter will. And listen, when you think about it, let’s say it’s a good year for Democrats. You know, if they’re able to add 12, 18 seats, we’ve got to see what the Supreme Court does on voting rights. Even in a great year, that’s going to make it hard and they know that. And, you know, the nightmare scenario, of course, is Democrats actually legitimately win enough votes to win the House. But it’s one or two, three seats. Do you think there’s any way that Trump’s not going to get Mike Johnson to try and basically overrule the will of the voters? So given the import here, listen, I wish we live in a country and we might again, but my guess is it’s going to be decades, if not a generation, because Trump has his enemies in place, where we can talk about fair districts and neutral redistricting processes. But right now, we have to make sure that we have as fair election as possible. And I think that’s hard. I think Democrats more than this brand of Republicans, this wasn’t the case even 10 years ago. We believe in fairness and doing things right and things like independent redistricting. But at the end of the day, this is a math exercise.

Alex Wagner: Yeah.

David Plouffe: And they’re trying to make the math impossible for Democrats to win the House. And so whether it’s the effort in Missouri, which is heroic, or this ballot initiative in California, hopefully Illinois, Maryland, Virginia, other states will do what they can to stand up to what Trump’s trying to do.

Alex Wagner: I want to play  you a clip from Jesse Watters on Fox. I’m not going to give him Wizard of Oz status. I think that’s reserved for Tucker Carlson, but Jesse Watters is a prominent voice in conservative politics and this is how he’s talking to his people.

[clip of Jesse Watters]: This party is delirious. And the Republican Party has to take full advantage at this point. We have to kick the illegals out of the country, we have to keep them out of census, and we have the gerrymander to the tilt. Why? Because the Democratic Party cannot be trusted to be the opposition party anymore. They have to have a permanent minority. It used to be like, you know what, they wanted to raise taxes, we wanted to cut them. We were isolationists, they were a little bit out It’s not like that anymore, this party’s dangerous.

Alex Wagner: Gerrymander full tilt, make them the permanent minority party. So goes the autocracy. So goes fascism. I guess I wonder, what does that mean for Democrats? There are sunset provisions in this Prop 50 bill, right? In Virginia, I think they just released a plan, the proposed constitutional amendment, which would allow Democrats to gain some seats in Virginia. Would give lawmakers emergency powers to create a new new map and then they could also they could they could sort of reverse the map or reverse the changes only when other states offer to do the same and then the powers to do this generally would expire at the end of the decade in 2030, right? So Democrats have built in what they see as kind of, you know. Uh, democratic sort of normalcy to the degree that you can in something like this. But like, what’s the point when you have Republicans, conservatives out there saying, no, no no, we never want you to have power again, and we’re going to do everything we can to stop you institutionally from gaining it.

David Plouffe: Alex, this is super important. I mean, it’s painful to say we should take what Jesse Watters says seriously, but it’s exactly how Stephen Miller talks about the Democratic party, increasingly how Mike Johnson talks about the democratic party. And so they’re going to justify anything. So I think the big mistake here is to under sell what they’re capable of doing. They’re saying what they are going to do. They’re going take every step, every means necessary. To try and guarantee permanent power. And so, sunsetting provisions are okay as long as there’s a trigger and you’re not gonna do it prematurely. So if we, at some point, if they put their weapons down, maybe we can put our weapons down. But that’s not gonna happen in the next three years. And again, I think what’s hard, I think we all wish we lived in a world where it’s January 20th, 2029, a Democrat wins the White House, let’s pray that happens. Donald Trump gets on a plane to Mar-a-Lago. And the Republican Party restored itself to the way it was a decade ago. That’s simply not going to happen. This is who they are. It’s who they’re gonna stay. My guess is at least through the next decade. So we have to prepare ourselves for that. There’s no escape. It’s painful when you think about it. It’s not gonna get easy. It’s gonna get harder. And so when Jesse Watter says that, when Stephen Miller says things like that, we can’t assume ever that while they won’t go to the most maximalist position, that’s what they’re going to do. And at the end of the day, they don’t want to be held accountable to anything by anybody, courts, press, voters. That’s kind of the unifying, I think, line that runs through most of the MAGA world is they just don’t wanna accountability, regulations, judges, the media, and ultimately voters. And I think they’re gonna pursue that with every fiber of their being.

Alex Wagner: So, I mean, what I’m hearing is, pour one out for, like, [laughs] independent redistricting committees. Like, it’s over, basically. I mean the idea that somehow Democrats will lay down their arms if and when Republicans lay down there arms, you yourself say that’s not going to come to pass. So, I’m not it’s I’m, not suggesting that I guess what I’m hearing is those days are over, and it’s really too bad, but they’re over. And so Arnold Schwarzenegger, who’s been very vocal and opposed to Proposition 50 in California, he’s the former governor, you know, when he says, let’s play the clip, because it sounds like you kind of maybe even agree with him, if not in terms of his assessment, if not his actual conclusion.

[clip of Arnold Schwarzenegger]: Anything that is temporary with government is permanent. So in the year 2032, when the Independence Redistricting Commission is supposed to come back, they’re going to say, wait a minute, there’s still gerrymandering going on in Texas, there is still gerymandering in Ohio, there still gerrymandering is going on in Florida. We have to continue with the gerrymandering. This is what’s going to happen. They will find an excuse.

Alex Wagner: First of all, have you ever done an interview from Gold’s Gym? Because I think that’s what [laughs], there’s literally like weights being dropped on the ground. I don’t know what that’s all about.

David Plouffe: It’s amazing advance work. I don’t know if that was his idea or somebody on his team, but a brilliant backdrop. [laughter] You know, we live in a very visual world, Alex, so it was well done.

Alex Wagner: Um, don’t ever forget he was a bodybuilder, David Plouffe. Um, I guess, like, so you maybe agree, like 2030 is arbitrary, like unless the Republican Party changes its stripes there, this, this is gonna, these, these lines are what they are, what happens in California, what happened in Virginia is the way it’s going to be maybe for a decade or longer.

David Plouffe: Right, I hope it’s not forever, but it’s gonna be anytime soon. He’s right about that. So I just think that all the spawn of Trump are somehow not gonna change their stripes. There is gonna be an effort to do everything they can, again, I think to, as Jesse Watter said, make Democrats a permanent minority. And that’s clearly not gonna happen with appeal to the voters. They’re staring right now at probably very difficult electoral situation in 26. So they’re doing everything they can at least at the house level to make it harder. So listen, Democrats, for the most part, there were some Republicans too. You know, Schwarzenegger obviously is a different type of Republican. But you know, we were the party that led the effort in most places for independent redistricting commissions, for computer drawn maps, for getting the politicians out of it. So that’s kind of our instinct. We think that’s right. So I think when the sky is clear, if it ever does clear. We can go back to that. But for now, I would just assume we’re kind of at a permanent war state where you’ve got an opposition that you need to assume, get in a dark room and draw up everything they could do, even if it kind of defies your view of what’s possible in America to maintain power. And that’s what they’re going to do. And I think it’s always a hard exercise to understand in the United States of America, our institutions, our constitution are a lot more fragile than I think many of us thought. But when you have a strong man who’s basically backed up by an entire party, so half the country, who’s willing to basically tear down everything to make sure they stay in power, you have to act accordingly. And there’ll be no medals or prizes for saying, well, they’re doing that, but we’re not going to go that far. Like we have to stop that. And I think most Democrats understand that. And I don’t think the reaction has been appropriate but we need to see it across the board because at the end of the day, this is a math exercise. This very well can come down to one, two, three, four, five house seats. So everything that’s happening in each of these states is critical.

Alex Wagner: I guess it seems like the redistricting tomfoolery, I keep using these antiquated terms like somehow that’ll make it like less awful, but what Trump’s trying to do with the congressional districts and the drawing the lines is one plank in his strategy to, you know, enforce anti-democratic tactics to retain power and control of the legislative branch. But then we’ve been offered in the last few days. Windows into other ways you might do that. I mean, first of all, there’s the standoff happening in Congress where the house is not coming back into session and the newly elected Democrat in Arizona, the daughter of Raúl Grijalva  cannot get seated because her vote will be critical in in without getting too into the weeds airing out the Epstein files. But you could imagine a scenario where Republicans adopt the very same playbook if it’s a very narrow house majority and they say, well, we’re just not going to seat the Democrats.

David Plouffe: I mean, let’s say the election unfolds next November and the result would be 220 Democrats. So they win the house. There’s no way that Mike Johnson is not gonna suggest that the two or three wins that put us over the top had fraud and they’re gonna try and prevent that outcome from happening. So what’s scary about that is you’re basically then counting on Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh and John Roberts to save the day.

Alex Wagner: Oh cool no they’re dependable.

David Plouffe: Well, maybe on this, we’ll see, but that’s what’s going to happen. Again, the notion that they wouldn’t do that. And listen, I think that to the extent there’s, and there’s always some degree of strategy can just seem like a blizzard of crazy tactics with Trump. There’s a strategy here, which is, yes, try and maintain control of the house. But if they don’t make it close enough so they can try and overwhelm, overrule the the voters. So this is what they’re going to do. There’s just no way it’s not going to happen. Maybe if Democrats were at 224 or 225 or 227, there’ll be a view that that’s too much. But by the way, their majority right now is incredibly narrow. So if you just were to flip it, so if the same thing were to happen, Johnson, who’s presiding over a super slim majority now, if the Democrats basically win enough seats to flip that, they’re gonna say no, they’re going to say. That this race in California that was won by 1,000 votes or this one in Arizona by 1,500 or this is going to Pennsylvania by 800, we’re not going to seat this person. So, you know, that’s what’s going to happen. And that’s why you really have to think about this mathematically. So I understand and respect what some of the state legislators in Illinois are saying about wanting to maintain some seats that are predominantly African-American. But you know at the end, first of all, that the state where Barack Obama. Carol Moseley Braun have won statewide, Lauren Underwood’s won in competitive places. So I think African-American candidates can win everywhere. But we can’t have a single state where they take an action and we don’t have reaction. And even if every democratic controlled state does what they can do to maximize the seats, we’re going to be at a deficit. And that’s before you get the Supreme Court. So we’re already running more uphill than we should. So again, this is going to come down. Every district matters. Every seat matters. And both in terms of control, but also in terms of hopefully giving us a cushion, so they can’t try and deny victors their rightful place in the House of Representatives.

Alex Wagner: More of my conversation with David Plouffe right after this break.

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Alex Wagner: There’s been a suggestion on the part of the minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries that Illinois needs to get on board the California and Virginia train and fight fire with fire, if you will, redistrict, give Democrats more seats. And as you mentioned, there’s some reluctance on the parts of some Democrats. And that brings to the fore the question of like, how actually prepared do you think the Democratic Party is to fight this new warfare? Because you’re not talking about, I mean, there is a world in which you would have suggested, oh, the Speaker of the House isn’t going to seat Democrats if it if it hands a majority. And that would have been unthinkable. I mean, like John Boehner just being like, fuck, no, not not this night, not this year or imagine it in the inverse, which was Nancy Pelosi saying, yeah, no. I’m sorry, I’m holding on to the gavel. But now not only are you saying is it possible, you’re like, it’s probable. There’s no way Johnson doesn’t try and deny Democrats their rightful majority. So are you confident in the party right now, I guess is what I would ask.

David Plouffe: I think you’re seeing really aggressive efforts at the state level. Listen, I think it’s fair to say I’m sure everyone was surprised. Maybe we shouldn’t have been by the intensity with which Trump is driving this redistricting effort. I mean, it’s mid decade.

Alex Wagner: Yeah.

David Plouffe: And they’re basically trying to tear up all the maps mid decade for no other reason than to make it hard to impossible for Democrats to win. So I think the I think going forward. Um, first of all, we, we need to have our list, you know there is another good story in the Atlantic. I think this week about all the things they could do to make it harder in 26 or 28, you know, we to, first of all let’s figure out what we can do to advantage ourselves. Let’s figure out all the things they can do. I mean, this is just war gaming. And again, I think the key thing with war gaming is right now you can never say, well, they wouldn’t do that. Just get that out of your vocabulary. Just assume they would do it. Even though it would have been impossible to consider 10 or 15 years ago and figure out what can we do. Some of that is blowing the whistle early to force some of them to say, well, we won’t do that. I mean, it’s always easier to destroy in the dark than in the light. So I think everybody should be socializing what they both can do and will likely do to maybe get them to back off a little bit, as unlikely as that is, and be prepared for it. So I just think it’s. It’s really hard, I mean, to think through. Like, okay. We have a leader and most of a party that seems to be hell bent on turning us either into an autocracy or autocracy lite.

Alex Wagner: I don’t know if there’s that much that’s lite about it.

David Plouffe: Yeah. So, you know, I think at the end of the day, you have to respond accordingly. And to me, there’s all this stuff that’s so important, legally redistricting, war gaming out what they could do, being smarter about what we can do. But the real salvation here for the country and the Democratic Party will for us to be stronger in more places so we can compete in more places. I mean, politics. The end of the day, you’re trying to maximize your opponent’s weakness in a campaign and maximize your strength. I think there’s more to do to maximize the Republican weakness, particularly as it relates to these house members who they need to own everything that’s happening, high energy prices, healthcare premiums exploding, job loss, all the things, you know, the deportations, which are becoming increasingly unpopular. Right now that’s on Trump. We need to put it on these Republicans. But the Democratic party has to get vastly stronger in terms of an appealing alternative. If we do that, then we can have more comfortable chance to win and hold the house for periods of time, win and hold the Senate, win the presidency. Listen, is there any question that from 28 to 40, you know, if the Democrats don’t win the Senate and the presidency, like the court could be 8-1.

Alex Wagner: Oh my god.

David Plouffe: Like this is super scary stuff, right? So I think that’s what makes it so complicated. There’s the rules and all the things that Republicans are doing, again, that we probably wouldn’t have imagined at most times in our country’s history. They’re doing, they’re going to do more. We need to prepare for that. But if we can become a powerful vote-getting series of candidates, it’s more important the candidates than the party, then we’re gonna be okay. But that’s, what makes us so scary. The Senate already is structurally challenging for us. Like it’s impossible to think about Democrats now getting above 52, probably, until we get more competitive in more places. And as you know, the electoral college is hard now, and in 2032, we lose five or six seats. So it gets a lot harder in the House, particularly with these challenges. So we’re kind of running on a muddy track already. So let’s do all we can to make sure it doesn’t get muddier and stand up to these efforts, which again, I think a lot of the states are doing a good job of. But then the big, the big I think thing here, Alex, is we just have to become a safer and more exciting and palatable place for more voters. And that’s not where we are right now. And I get that people say, don’t ever criticize Democrats. And they listen, the Republicans are obviously trying to destroy the country. Most of them. We get that. We need to critique that, make an argument. But you know, just like sports, there’s two teams. And the stronger your team is. You know the better you’re going to be able to exploit your opponent’s weakness, and I think that’s what we have to get back to.

Alex Wagner: Right. It’s, it’s like, well, but they’re also cheating at the same time. [laughs]

David Plouffe: Right.

Alex Wagner: It’s like I guess I wonder how much you think the fatalism, because there is this week, for example, Steve Bannon was out there saying Trump will be president in 2028. We have a plan. We are going to act on it. Let’s listen to the clip first.

[clip of Steve Bannon]: Well, he’s going to get a third term. So Trump 28, Trump is going to be president in 28 and people just ought to get accommodated with that. / So what about the 22nd Amendment? / There’s many different alternatives. At the appropriate time, we’ll lay out what the plan is. But there’s a plan, and President Trump will be the president in 28.

Alex Wagner: I mean, OK, I just still first of all, he’s still wearing two shirts. I can’t. I mean the whole thing, all of it. It’s. There is this there is a desire, I think, or a cautionary feeling on the part of some Democrats to not play too much into the hand of this absolutely unconstitutional nonsense. Right. Mike Johnson is out there. Actually, Mike Johnson did say Mike Johnson, a.k.a. the ventriloquist puppet, did suggest that he still understands that we have the Constitution as our guiding light. This is what Johnson said this week in response to the notion that Trump was going to be president forever.

[clip of Mike Johnson]: I think the President knows, and he and I have talked about the constrictions of the Constitution as much as so many American people lament that, I don’t see a way to amend the Constitution because it takes about 10 years to do that, as you all know.

Alex Wagner: You’re saying everything’s on the table. It doesn’t really matter what Mike Johnson says, which is something we’ve all learned the hard way. It’s ultimately what Trump wants to do and the rest of the party will bend the knee. But like how much Democrats, you talked about blowing the whistle loudly and early. How much do you have to calibrate that desire to say, okay, this is the doom that awaits us as a country? But not make people feel fatalistic about the future and still get engaged and feel like the process matters, their engagement and involvement matter, that the process can be unrigged or is not fully, you know, broken.

David Plouffe: Well, I think, you know, when I think about the things we need to prepare for, it’s obviously this redistricting warfare that’s going on. There’s monitors and troops at polling locations. There’s refusing to certify election winners. We need to be prepared for all that in 26. You know, this point about Trump running for a third term, I’m much more interested making sure we prosecute the case against Trump, but most importantly. The House and Senate Republicans who’ve stood by and done nothing, you know, as he has made inflation worse, as he’s made healthcare costs explode, energy costs explode. You know, all the grifting that’s happening, you know to enrich his family while the average American family is paying a lot more. And they’re pissed. I mean, you see Trump’s approval rating. So I wouldn’t really talk about Trump running for a third term now or in 26. Or you know, until it’s a real threat. Listen, at the end of the day, you know, you never underestimate Trump electorally, but he also, I think, mused about this and said he thinks it would be too cute. And I think he’s probably right about that, because I assume what Bannon’s talking about is this notion that Trump could run as the VP for Vance, and then they do a switcheroo. And, you know—

Alex Wagner: Like they do in Russia.

David Plouffe: By the way, 46% of the country would be fine with that, but that’s not 50. That’s not what you need to get to 270 electoral votes. I don’t think that’s a particularly strong move. So that’s one I would say, it may happen, but it’s sequentially down the road. So let’s not focus on that.

Alex Wagner: So focus on 2026.

David Plouffe: Let’s focus on the stuff that could really affect the outcomes of the 26 election where the way to think about it is there will be enough voters potentially to switch control of the house both as a referendum on those house republicans who’ve been basically like balls of jello as it relates to Trump and Trump himself and that will of the voters is not going to be recognized. So that’s the real threat as it relate to 26 from like a rules standpoint and a preparation standpoint. But again, You know, none of this will matter if we sail on the 26, really strong, and there’s a lot of work to do to make sure that we are, again, maximizing their weakness and maximizing our strength. So that’s something in our control, by the way. I think all this stuff redistricting and all the malfeasance that they’re gonna undertake as it relates to 26, we have to fight that tooth and nail really smartly with resources and be smart. And we’re going to win some of that and some of that we’re not going to get the outcome we want. But what we can control is the campaign we put in front of people in 26.

Alex Wagner: What I’m hearing is take the gloves off, sharpen the knives. I mean, you know, metaphorically speaking, and get ready for a street fight that could last decades that this is a Republican party that is a political party kind of in name only and just represents anti-democratic force that is out there for money and power and has been corrupted by Trump and you know are arguably other actors. In recent years.

David Plouffe: No question. Right. I mean, I think Alex, I mean my hope is maybe 10 years from now, 12 years from now. That’s not the case. But you think about, okay, 2028. Let’s assume Steve Bannon is talking out of his ass, which I think he is on this one. And there’s a Republican primary. I mean, what Vance others, you know, they’re going to talk about the Democrats. I mean, listen, what is what does the White House say? Democrats are evil. You know,  we exist to basically bring immigrants in from other countries to rig elections. Like I’ve been a part of the Democratic Party for decades. That’s a conversation we’ve never had anywhere. Right. So basically they are and basically have no regard for rules if they are inconvenient to them. Like this is the hard thing. I struggle with it. Trump eventually leaves, but they all stay. And he has shown them the way. It’s not like there’s gonna be some moment in 2028 or 2030 where they say, you know what? We need to basically lay off a little bit. You know, we’re not gonna go after institutions. You know we’re gonna treat half the country like they are evil and out to destroy the country. So I just think we’re going to be at this state of vigilance for a long time. And I don’t know when the sky will clear. But I think we have to understand that in my view and act accordingly. And that means you’re kind of trapped. You’re in this place where so many things we thought would never happen in this country are happening and it’s not gonna get better when he exits the stage.

Alex Wagner: The sort of middle ground is basically gone and it’s just an all-out fight pro-democracy versus fascism I guess or autocracy on the other side and you know that’s a change that’s a changed political system and that requires a changed democratic party because as you’re saying the republicans have already metamorphosized and now it’s up to democrats to respond accordingly.

David Plouffe: Well, you know, what did Michael Corleone say to, you know, Tom Hagen, you’re a good peacetime consigliere, I need a wartime consigliere essentially. And I think that’s we’re on that’s the case here.

Alex Wagner: We’re shutting the government down.

David Plouffe: We’re shutting the government down, right, and showing no interest. I mean, Johnson hasn’t had his members in in in months. And Trump seems like he could care less. So you know I do think that you know, it will break at some point, but it’s not going to break soon. I mean, I just think that, that for the next three years, this is what we’re dealing with, but it’s going to get better when he leaves. This is going to be the, there is no, the Republican party is MAGA and that’ll be the case for several more election cycles at a minimum. So I just, I think we have to understand that, but we have to understand, that there’s, there’s a sense that the democratic party, I think has been too disconnected from everyday people. And quite frankly, that we’re weak. So that’s the other benefit of this. I would do it even if there wasn’t a benefit is, let’s have spines of steel and let’s stand up to these folks who are trying to tear down our country and trying to make sure that they stay in power no matter what the voters say. I mean, that’s as noble of effort as possible. So if you can’t be strong and rigid on that and understand that they’re gonna take this places that we were never comfortable with. As a country previously, but that’s what they’re going to do. So what we can’t do is simply criticize them. We have to respond. And to your, where we started this is we have to do some things that might be inconsistent with the world we’d like to live in. By the way, is there any chance in this MAGA world, let’s say the Democrats win the white house in 28, but we don’t have the Senate. You think they’re gonna confirm a Supreme court justice? You know, if Thomas or, you know, Alito were to step down, they’re not! Like we have to understand that’s where we are today. We have to regain power and hold it in order to set some of this stuff right.

Alex Wagner: Wartime consigliere, David Plouffe. We are happy to have your very dark [laughter] assessments and prognostications, but it’s a, you know, what do they call it? Straight talk, real talk.

David Plouffe: I hope I’m wrong.

Alex Wagner: I mean, I don’t know, the way things are going, buddy, you sound right to me. Uh, thank you for taking time to, you know, help us understand the stakes, David. I really appreciate it.

David Plouffe: Always good to talk to you Alex.

Alex Wagner: Before we go, I wanna hear from you. Have you been impacted directly by the Trump administration and or its policies? Maybe you’ve experienced changes to your job or to your healthcare or at your kid’s school. If so, I want to hear it all. Whether these policies have impacted you for better or for worse. So send us an email or a one minute voice note at runawaycountry@crooked.com and we may be in touch to feature your story. And thank you to everyone who has written in already. Last but not least, don’t forget to check out the show and our rapid response videos on our YouTube channel, Runaway Country, with Alex Wagner. Runaway Country is a Crooked Media production. Our senior producer is Alyona Minkovski. Our producer is Emma Illick-Frank. Production support from Megan Larson and Lacy Roberts. The show is mixed and edited by Charlotte Landes. Ben Hethcoat is our video producer and Matt DeGroot is our head of production. Audio support comes from Kyle Seglin. Our theme music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Adriene Hill is our Head of News and Politics. Katie Long is our Executive Producer of Development. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writer’s Guild of America East.

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