TALLA-HASSLE
Florida’s draconian six-week abortion ban will be on the ballot this November. Precedent suggests pro-choice voters will rally, but what it means for Democrats and Republicans is another matter.
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In one stroke the Florida Supreme Court appears to have both choked off reproductive rights in the state, and given pro-choice forces reason to believe they’ll be able to reverse the whole post-Roe v. Wade disaster in the Sunshine State. A ruling yesterday affirmed the state’s 15-week abortion ban, and cleared the way for a Ron DeSantis-approved 6-week ban on most abortions, to take effect within a month. That’s effectively an outright ban since most women don’t know they’re pregnant until after 6 weeks. Since most Southern states have banned or restricted abortion, women in Florida who need abortion services would have to travel all the way to Virginia to get care.
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But the court also provided a healthy dose of opportunity along with the crisis. In a 4-3 ruling, it cleared the way for a voter referendum on protecting abortion rights in the state Constitution this November. Abortion rights have won big in every place they’ve been on the ballot since Dobbs, including Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio. Candidates for state and federal office who’ve run on protecting abortion rights in places like Wisconsin, New York, and Alabama have done similarly well. That explains why Dems are acting bullish on flipping Florida back to blue in 2024 after a long-running GOP takeover: Ever since they eviscerated Roe, Republicans have paid a political price each and every time it’s come up. House Democratic leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and other Dems descended on Florida today to make the point in multiple locations.
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But (and you probably saw this coming) the reality isn’t that simple. The logic goes like this: A salient issue like a abortion on the ballot will drive people to the polls to protect it, even if they don’t care as much about the candidates. And while they’re in the voting booth, they’re more likely to support the candidate who stands up for reproductive rights (Biden) and not the one who took them away (Trump). As such Dems are trying to get abortion questions placed on the ballot in multiple states. But while it’s true the abortion question and abortion-protecting Dems have done well, whether it helps Joe Biden and Dems generally on Election Day is another matter. Recent history shows Dems and GOP candidates aren’t reliably affected when they run adjacent to abortion questions. Independendents and many Republicans who want to block abortion bans often maintain their preference for GOP candidates, rather than punish them. You could even see how the question in Florida might create a permission structure for some Trump-independents or GOPs to still support Trump—if they can do it while protecting abortion rights down-ballot.
The strategy is even more important in places like Arizona, where advocates are also trying to get an abortion question on the ballot in November. Flipping Florida may be a long shot. But holding a swing state like Arizona means Dems will have to convince voters to hold Trump and other abortion-banning candidates accountable for what they’re promising to do.
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The White House said it was “outraged” over an Israeli strike that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, including one American, but National Security Adviser John Kirby continued to maintain the White House position that it does not believe Israel has violated humanitarian law. Following the tragedy, World Central Kitchen founder and chef José Andrés’ suspended operations and several aid ships aborted trips to Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the strike “tragic” and claimed it was “unintentional,” but also said, “this happens in wartime.” But WCK claimed in their statement that their convoy on the ground had been coordinating movements with the IDF. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jingping held their first phone call since the two met at a November summit. The two discussed Taiwan, drug trafficking, and China’s ongoing weapons sales supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson is floating seized Russian assets as a funding source for Ukraine’s defense effort, along with tying the aid to yet another GOP wish-list of policy demands. Donald Trump’s close allies are planning, if he’s reelected, to use civil rights law to fight discrimination…against White people. Or I guess, we should say, continue the Conservative Supreme Court’s crusade on that matter. Georgia GOP vice-chairman Scott Pritchard is defying calls for him to resign after his conviction for voting 9 times while on probation for fraud. Even Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) wants him to go. Imagine how rotten your ethics have to be to lose MTG! Who is paying for Greene and Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) lawsuit against two cities and several non-profits for a canceled 2021 political event in California? And who will represent them now that one of their lawyers, John Eastman, won’t be showing up since he had his law license lifted for lying and criming with Trump? No one knows, which seems bad! Author JK Rowling’s posts attacking Scotland’s brand new hate speech law, while also attacking transgender people, won’t be treated as criminal, local authorities said. So, just the ramblings of a transphobic lunatic, then! Got it! A group of House Republicans wants to rename Dulles airport outside Washington DC after Donald Trump. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who represents part of the airport’s grounds, argued that if Republicans want to rename a place after Trump, it should be a federal prison. Hear, hear! The Daily Caller retracted a viral story about the White House banning religious symbols from an Easter egg art contest. The story went nuts on the right as proof of Joe Biden’s hatred of Christians. Turns out, the policy “goes back decades.”
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