Pro-Palestinian activists hold signs during a ''Not Another Bomb: Solidarity Action with Gaza'' rally, calling for the U.S. to ''stop arming Israel's brutal war and occupation of Gaza by enacting an immediate arms embargo'' and demanding a ceasefire, Sunday August 18, 2024 in Los Angeles. (Ringo Chiu via AP)
WAR WOES
Most Democrats and Independents believe the U.S. should end support for Israel’s war effort or make support conditional on a cease-fire, according to a new poll first seen by What A Day.
- Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip has been one of the Biden administration’s thorniest issues, approving billions of dollars worth of weapons to Israel without putting conditions on how they’re used — even as Israel kills thousands of civilians with no end in sight. President Joe Biden has failed to secure a cease-fire deal as Israeli and Hamas leaders routinely scuttle negotiations. Vice President Kamala Harris telegraphed that she’ll continue Biden’s policy toward the conflict if she wins in November, even though the majority of voters in their own party don’t agree with it.
- Democrats (67 percent) and Independents (55 percent) think the U.S. should end support for Israel’s war in Gaza or make support conditional on reaching a cease-fire, according to a poll conducted by the Institute for Global Affairs. Only 8 percent of Democrats think the U.S. should unconditionally support Israel, compared to 42 percent of Republicans. A plurality of Democrats also choose the Israel-Gaza war as the Biden administration’s biggest foreign policy failure.
- We’re two weeks away from the war’s one-year mark, and the Biden administration hasn’t backed away from supporting Israel. The White House has rebuffed calls from Democratic lawmakers and scores of activists to limit assistance to the country, which has been repeatedly accused of committing war crimes. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East are skyrocketing as Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants seem close to an all-out war (Israeli airstrikes killed hundreds of people in Lebanon on Monday). The U.S. is sending additional American troops to the region, the Defense Department announced on Monday, without providing numbers or what they’ll do.
- IGA’s poll was distributed online by YouGov to 1,835 Americans in the U.S. between August 15 and August 22. The margin of error for national findings is 3.9 percent.
A slim majority of Americans believe Kamala Harris would be a stronger leader on foreign policy than former President Donald Trump, the poll also found.
- Nationally, Harris is seen as a better choice when it comes to improving Washington’s reputation on the world stage (53 percent vs. 47 percent), being a strong leader (52 percent to 48 percent), and avoiding sending American troops into unnecessary conflicts (52 percent to 48 percent). In swing states, however, Trump narrowly leads Harris on each of these issues. That should be taken with a grain of salt: The margin of error for these states ranges from 5.6 percent to 6.6 percent.
- Despite having little foreign policy experience, Harris has been endorsed by hundreds of former national security officials in recent weeks — because they think Trump “endangers” democracy. But frustration with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war could hurt Harris in swing states, most notably Michigan, where a poll found that Arab-American voters prefer Trump and Green Party candidate Jill Stein over her.
- “Independents’ desire to end the war in Gaza presents an opportunity for the Harris campaign,” Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at IGA, told What A Day. “She said in the debate she wants the war to end ‘immediately,’ so it appears she would strengthen her candidacy if she can demonstrate she has the potential, not just the willingness, to actually end it.”
Israel has long been Washington’s closest partner in the Middle East, but the past year could change the trajectory of that relationship: “She can appeal to a new generation of voters for whom thoughtful criticism Israel’s government is neither taboo nor political suicide,” Hannah added. “She doesn’t need to cede the anti-war message to Trump.”
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CFR Spotlights Foreign Policy in the U.S. Presidential Election
In the run-up to the November presidential election, the Council on Foreign Relations has launched Election 2024, an initiative that offers a wide range of resources–including a content hub, candidate tracker, podcasts, videos, and more–to help voters better understand the critical international issues at stake.
Elections matter. Leaders matter. The world matters.
