Jon is joined by longtime pollster Sarah Longwell to discuss how swing voters are reacting to Kamala Harris’ unexpected campaign for president. How did they react to Biden’s decision to withdraw? What concerns do they have about Kamala Harris’ chances against Trump? And is her candidacy reigniting their capacity for hope? Sarah shares new focus group tape from Kamala Harris’ first week on the campaign trail to find the answers and talks to Jon about the Vice President’s path to the White House. 

 

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TRANSCRIPT

 

[AD BREAK]

 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] America has tried these failed economic policies before, but we are not going back. [cheers and applause] We are not going back, not going back.

 

Jon Favreau: Okay, so new vibes here on The Wilderness. Our last show was just after the debate that has now changed the course of history. With just over three months to go in the 2024 election. President Biden withdrew from the race, and Vice President Kamala Harris is now the new presumptive Democratic nominee. Biden dropping out this close to the election is a truly shocking development that has no precedent in U.S. history. But if you’ve listened to the show for the last few years, you might not have been surprised that it was the persistent, widespread concerns about the president’s age that eventually led him to pass the torch. Concerns that didn’t originate with the media or pundits or elected officials, but with the voters. Republican and Democratic voters of every age, race, and background. Especially people who haven’t decided who they’re voting for or whether they’ll vote at all. This was true of the voters we heard from before the midterms last season. It’s been true this season, and it’s why listening to the kind of voters who will decide this election is so valuable and important because we can’t persuade people without first meeting them where they are and hearing what’s on their minds. So that’s what we’re going to keep doing for the rest of the season. Only now we’ll be focused on what it will take to persuade enough people to make Kamala Harris the next president of the United States. The race is still extremely close, and the VP starts as a bit of an underdog, though she’s already in a stronger position to defeat Trump than Biden was, especially after the debate. The impressions voters have of her also aren’t as hardened as they are with Biden or Trump. And so the race between the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign to define the VP in the last 100 days of the election is on. One person who’s been frantically talking to more swing voters than just about anyone over the course of the last week is our friend Sarah Longwell, the Never Trump publisher of The Bulwark and host of the Focus Group podcast. We asked Sarah to come back and talk about what voters think of our new Democratic nominee and what we can all say to persuade the persuadables in our lives to vote for Kamala Harris. Let’s get into it. I’m Jon Favreau. Welcome to The Wilderness. [music break] Sarah, welcome back to the wilderness. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Oh, I’m so glad to be here. Can’t wait. Let’s talk. 

 

Jon Favreau: Safe to say that quite a bit has changed in the eight weeks since we last spoke on this pod. Wanted to have you on again, because I know you’ve been doing a lot of focus groups with persuadable voters, especially since the debate. And I’ve heard a lot about the new presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. What groups of voters have you guys talked to recently, and how many groups have you done since Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris? 

 

Sarah Longwell: Okay. Great question. So after the debate, I’ll start there. We like went on a focus grouping tear. And I really wanted to dig in with both swing voters then, but also with Black voters. And so we did a lot of Black voter groups especially. We did two groups of Black voting women, because I was really trying to understand both. What was the fear around if Joe Biden dropped out, like we’d have the first female Black president, and so what was the resistance to that? Because the the campaign was really leaning on this idea that Black voters were with him. And I did a lot of swing voters, because that’s who I tend to talk to. A lot of the Trump 2016 to Joe Biden 2020 voters. And then since Harris got in, we’ve also been trying to get as many in as possible. I think we’ve done four. 

 

Jon Favreau: Okay, that’s a lot. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And all swing voter groups and yeah, that’s what we got. 

 

Jon Favreau: So before we get to Harris in general, how did people feel about Biden post-debate? Did any of them think that the media coverage was overblown? Did any of them think he should stay? What were the vibes like in July? 

 

Sarah Longwell: So the two different groups, the swing voter groups, have been down on Biden now for months and years. I mean, I don’t know when the last time we talked, but I never thought Biden should run again. And I didn’t think Biden should run again because I’d been listening to voters in these focus groups for so long, and I was seeing a ton of backsliding. So and by a ton, look, when you have roughly half the group or even three or four people in a group of eight who had gone from Trump, voted for Biden and now say they were going back to Trump almost entirely because of Joe Biden’s age, something he was not going to be able to change, a little bit of economy thrown in there. But they were just down on Biden. And so now, I would say after the debate, it got much, just much more catastrophic in the language. And people were mean. They would say things like, he’s an animatronic waxwork they forgot to wind up. 

 

Jon Favreau: Oof. 

 

Sarah Longwell: They would call him a corpse, and they would talk about how like desperate they were over the choice. It was like an insurrectionist versus somebody who’s not even there. And so I would say there is a level of excitement over this change, even from swing voters who, like, aren’t there yet on Kamala. They’re still so happy about it. 

 

Jon Favreau: That’s interesting. 

 

Sarah Longwell: They’re glad that Biden stepped down. But, you know, we all got ourselves in trouble. We are the podcasters. But I really think they meant you, but like we were among the podcasters. 

 

Jon Favreau: You were. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Who were like, he’s got to step down. And a lot of it was because of what I was hearing from these voters who they’re the double haters, right. And Joe Biden had to turn it around with them. He had to. And when he failed to do it and it just got worse, there was no pact. But then let me just talk about the Black voters quickly, because I thought the Black voters were super interesting in that we were hearing from people that Black voters under no circumstances wanted Joe Biden to step down. That’s not really what we heard. All the swing voters wanted him to step down, all of them. In the Black voting groups, there was a lot of fear about what was coming for Kamala if it was her. And there was some sort of loyalty. But for the Black voters were just like, I don’t know, it feels better to have an old white guy, because if it’s Kamala, like they’re going to tear her apart, they’re going to be awful to her. And you could see the fear and like how much they were going to feel it when they came for Kamala.  

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. I think we have a clip from one of those groups of Black voters that you did before the hand-off. So let’s listen. 

 

[clip of unidentified Black woman in focus group 1] We saw what happened to Clinton, and this time it’s a Black woman. So now we throw something else on top of it. I don’t see that going well. And honestly, just Black women. If it’s a Black woman I feel for her. 

 

[clip of unidentified Black woman in focus group 2] Even President Barack Obama, like he’s a man. And he it was horrible. Like people’s reactions to him winning. It was horrible. And then as people mentioned already, um Hillary Clinton, like, if we were going to do a woman, it would have to be a white woman first. 

 

Jon Favreau: So this was a group of Black voters you talked to a few weeks ago who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. So these are like strong Biden now maybe Harris voters, were those views indicative of what other groups said about Harris? Like, what are some other impressions voters have about Harris that they had sort of before the handoff? 

 

Sarah Longwell: So the Black voting group was pretty specific, especially the women, the two groups of women Black voters, because for them, it clearly felt very personal. A lot of them talked about how Black men that they knew didn’t like Kamala Harris. And I honestly, I remember feeling really sad after those groups, just listening to how much these women felt like it had to be Biden because they were like, America is just not going to elect a Black woman. I mean, you heard them say it and they were like, look, if we’re going to go beat Trump, we need sort of like the straightest, whitest. And somebody was was using the phrase Superman. Like I felt sad that people felt so certain that America would be so against a woman or a Black woman. Like and it didn’t even seem to be specific to Kamala. It was just about America and what America would and would not accept. But what’s been interesting to me is how I think excitement can be really contagious, right? People were being dominated by a lot of fear in those weeks. People were so nervous. And you can see now that once it was Kamala and once she showed up, you could just see how when somebody is showing up, right, and they’re going on offense, people are like, you know what? I’m ready to rock. I’m ready to rock with you. And like, I bet if we go back to those Black women groups and ask them again, I bet right now I bet they’re doing calls for Kamala. You know, they’re ready to go because certainly that’s I think broadly what is happening. I don’t know about that specific group. I think they would still probably be like, you know, I’m nervous about how this is going to go and they’re calling her, you know, a DEI president. But I think that instead of the fear that they felt then, now they would feel ready to go on offense with her. 

 

Jon Favreau: So we dealt with something similar way back in 2007 with Barack Obama. And that, like his numbers with Black voters, weren’t that great. And in some polls early on, they were worse than Hillary’s. And the reason is because there was this fear that he wasn’t going to be able to win. And it wasn’t until he wins the Iowa caucuses and a bunch of white people came out and caucused for him, that suddenly the enthusiasm and excitement among Black voters was like, okay, maybe we can do this. Like still had this fear, right? But like, this feels good. I think we could do this. And so like it’s something similar happening now. She, of course, has the added challenge of sexism in addition to latent racism as well. So that’s tougher. What are some other impressions of Kamala Harris been with the swing voters you’ve spoken to? 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. So the number one thing you hear about Kamala Harris is the idea that people just they’re like, I don’t see her. What does she even do? Like I don’t know anything about her. There’s this sense of, I don’t know, maybe I thought she was going to be okay. And then I never saw her again once she became the vice president. So that creates for them sort of a negative impression. It’s not a locked in anti Kamala. It’s just a negative impression. And then there’s like a step up above that’s that’s more committed. That is like she didn’t do anything about the border. You know she was supposed to do X, Y or Z but has done nothing now. I just haven’t seen her. I don’t know much about her, was so pervasive though, that I think for a long time I was like, look, voters don’t like Kamala Harris. But when we had to sort of face the choice of Biden stepping down and understanding that, like the idea of an open convention, it was going to get tough. And [?] and you started thinking about Kamala, and I started listening to the voters almost with sometimes you put different ears on, you know, because the world changes and you’re like, I want to think really hard about what they’re saying about Kamala right now. And I just thought, actually, there’s a lot of upside here. Most people aren’t saying they hate her. Most people aren’t saying– 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: She did this or that that makes them mad. They have this like loose impression out of mostly out of an absence of something, which means she could reintroduce herself to the country. She has a chance here to redefine herself with these people, because some people have a committed negative impression, but most people just have like an absent negative impression. 

 

Jon Favreau: So in the groups that you’ve done this week, since Harris has become the presumptive nominee, are these mostly Trump to Biden swing voters, mixed races as well or?

 

Sarah Longwell: Yes, they are mixed race. So most of the groups are mixed race often. We just wanted to do very specific groups of Black voters after the debate, because there was that specific conversation happening. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah, yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Here’s what I would say about the swing voters right now. They’re nervous, like they’re catching up. They are not terminally online like the rest of us. And so we’re moving at the speed of light of things. And they’re still being like, whoa uh, this happened. Biden step down. Um. Kamala, is is she going to be the nominee? Like, there’s still kind of like, will it be her? You know, they heard so much about open conventions. But here’s the things that I would say. The few things that I’m hearing thematically. One is for people who are negative. I would say one of the most negative things we’re hearing is the idea that there wasn’t some form of a primary. 

 

Jon Favreau: I was going to ask, yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: There’s this sense of like, well the donors got to pick and our Democrats picked, and that doesn’t feel fair. We’ve heard that from some people. Then there’s we hear a lot more of the I don’t know her, I don’t know that much about her, but I’m going to go find out. Like, I’m interested to learn. I’d like to know more. And it’s funny, in the groups, they really are still double haters. And so they do still hate Trump. So they’re sort of looking for a reason to like her in a way that they weren’t before and this is sort of what I mean about new ears, in the way that the context changes, where a bunch of people who kind of had this negative of her. Go, okay, show me what you got. I’m open now. I’m open for business. I’m ready to hear your pitch. And you could hear some of the people say, like, I didn’t know that much about her, but I assume she’ll be good on abortion. And let me just tell you, the other thing that’s happening with the swing voters is it is happening at the same time that the JD vance stuff is happening. 

 

Jon Favreau: Ah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And the JD Vance stuff, it is creating a whole new layer of contrast, especially for women. And so suddenly she’s also getting a new look in that context. 

 

Jon Favreau: Is the childless cat lady thing popping up in any group? 

 

Sarah Longwell: It is, it is. 

 

Jon Favreau: Wow. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And just and it’s less the cat lady and more just um, it’s like less specifically that, like the couch thing’s not permeating specifically either. But this is what happens when those kind of mean things get going. Here’s what people take away. It’s less cat lady and more. I don’t think he likes women. I think he’s crazy on abortion. I think he seems weird. And I’ll tell you, we did so many groups in 2022, both for Vance and on Blake Masters. And back then I remember how much I thought JD Vance, the way that people talked about JD Vance, and the way people talked about Blake Masters was so similar. They just think they’re weird. And JD Vance is getting that now too, where people are like, I don’t know this guy sucks. I just think he’s kind of a weird he has weird opinions about Owen. He’s extreme on abortion. Like that’s what’s bring you in because of the flip flopping on Trump. It’s not so much that they care one way or the other what he said before, it’s just that it’s the act of this person must not have any core. 

 

Jon Favreau: Hmmm. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Because he said all these things. It wasn’t like he said, I didn’t want to vote for him. He was like, no, he’s America’s Hitler. Now I’m his vice president. 

 

Jon Favreau: It’s a big flip flop. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Like for people. That’s not like an evolution. It’s just like a really big swing for folks. [music break]

 

[AD BREAK]

 

Jon Favreau: You mentioned that some people were concerned about the process that led to Harris. Did anyone suggest that there were other nominees they were hoping for, or did they throw out other candidate names, or were they just sort of like, yeah, how did we get here? 

 

Sarah Longwell: No. You know, we were asking a lot about names in the intervening weeks between the debate and when Biden ultimately stepped down. And now we’ve been asking about VP’s. If you are in Pennsylvania, people say Shapiro, we’ve been disproportionately talking to swing state voters. So if you are in Pennsylvania, they say, Shapiro. If you are in Arizona or if they’re an Arizona voter, uh they say astronaut man. 

 

Jon Favreau: Mark Kelly. [laugh]

 

Sarah Longwell: If they’re in Michigan, they say Whitmer and you’re if you’re in Arizona, you don’t know who Josh Shapiro is and vice versa. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: On these folks. And so it wasn’t that they had, the only name actually, that ever sort of comes up organically, really, is Michelle Obama. Like where they put it forward because she comes up all the time. I swear to God, if Michelle Obama wanted to save democracy right now. 

 

Jon Favreau: I know. I know. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And when people say, like a Black woman couldn’t win, I’m telling you, Michelle Obama running the tables. I hear her name so often. But the people that come up organically, where people do have some name I.D., the main things they knew about Whitmer was the kidnapping plot. That did a lot for her with swing voters. [laughter] People are like, that’s cool. You know, she got someone tried to kidnap her. Newsom does come up. He’s got more name I.D. than a lot of Democrats. I think because he does like the Fox News hits. He did the debate. People know who he is. And Pete, people know Pete a little bit. 

 

Jon Favreau: Oh yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And then they immediately tell you that America will never vote for a gay candidate. So–

 

Jon Favreau: That’s–

 

Sarah Longwell: Like, the voters are so funny because they all do armchair punditry when you start asking them about politics. And one of the things they’re very clear on is they think that America is a deeply sexist, deeply racist, deeply homophobic place that will not elect these people. I happen to think that people are not nearly as racist, sexist, and homophobic as the other people’s impressions of them are. But, you know. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah, I think the the election of Trump probably did that for a lot of people. Right? Because people are like, how did this guy get elected? 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: So let’s talk about their views of of now Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, not just Vice President Kamala Harris. Um. A big question has been whether the uh online youthful enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is reaching beyond a very online audience. You talked to one group of Trump, Biden swing voters that suggests maybe it is. Let’s listen. 

 

[clip of unidentified swing voter 1] It seems like the younger generation, they are more likely to vote for Harris over Biden. That’s just the vibe that I get based on what’s being posted online and based on what’s being shared on social media. 

 

[clip of unidentified swing voter 2] I just feel like it’d be like a breath of fresh air. Um. I feel like it’ll be like a new beginning instead of feeling like you’re watching a rerun, because Trump has already been in office. You know what I’m saying? So we already know how that went. 

 

[clip of unidentified swing voter 3] She’s quick witted, she’s funny. She has a personality, obviously, being a female there are people out there that don’t want to vote for a female president. I think those same people are ones that would not vote for Biden either. 

 

Jon Favreau: They sound like a focus group podcast Wilderness listeners talk about the punditry. They’re just like [laughter] diving [?] diving into crosstabs. [laugh] What other sort of positive things did you hear about Harris? I have to say, when I heard someone say Trump is like watching a rerun, I’m like, they should use that. That’s good. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah, well, it’s the never go back. We’re not going back. Right? I mean, I do think that’s sort of implicit, I think. Look, I’ll just this is a little bit of a side thing, but I’m pretty impressed with the out of the gate Harris campaign. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: I think that not going back is a good strong message for we don’t want Trump again. And it’s interesting actually, because it is one of the things that Trump voters say when they want to say how, like they’re not going back to the other Republican Party. But it is a deep psychological interest in moving forward, in living a life forward that I think they’re tapping into that voters like. And obviously, Trump is the backward looking. But the main thing is that when they say breath of fresh air. And so they were super, that person was being very positive about Kamala. And we are hearing positive things from in the focus groups. So like let me just go back because a lot of it is me comparing the focus groups from before to the focus groups we’re doing now. So like I was saying, there was a ton of backsliding. They were filled with double haters. People were mad about their choices, and now you still get a little bit of backslide and you still get a bunch of some people being like, well, I think I’m going to vote for Trump because I’ve been unhappy about the economy or whatever. But they’re also saying, But I’m open. Like, tell me more, because they don’t love Trump, these ones. And so we’re seeing much less backsliding now, and we’re also seeing people who are affirmatively excited. And then we’re seeing kind of a middle group that’s like, tell me more. I’m here to be interested. We do do head to heads and the head to heads where we basically are like, election’s tomorrow. I demand you vote for us. And I think and it’s been like seven to one. 

 

Jon Favreau: Wow. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And so that is much better than the, sort of six to three, four, four, uh that we were seeing a lot of in the sort of three weeks after the debate. 

 

Jon Favreau: We have a clip of some of the voters you talked to who are just expressed some of that concern and worry that the country would elect, uh its first Black woman president. Let’s listen. 

 

[clip of unidentified concerned voter 1] Obama’s wife. I mean, at least she did some things. I mean, this is his wife. And she at least she was visible, and I can’t I can’t say anything. I forgot that she was the vice president for a while. 

 

[clip of unidentified concerned voter 2] I feel like I just don’t know her well enough. The positive part is I assume her being a woman, she’s going to be looking out for women’s rights. Um. She’s not going to be throwing women under the bus. Um. Trying to put us, you know, stuck at home cooking and cleaning. I don’t know, like y’all talking about 2025 project. I’m like, oh, man, that sounds like where that’s headed.

 

Jon Favreau: [laugh] What’s your take on how race and gender factor into the challenge she’s facing with the voters she needs. And like, how do you think she should handle that? 

 

Sarah Longwell: So the theory of the case around electing Biden, which, you know, I run Republican voters against Trump. And so I was very invested in, all right, who are the voters we need to move. Who’s there with Biden? The reason that the blue wall states were we all felt like yeah this is ultimately gettable is because Biden was still doing well with old white people. And in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Nebraska, too, there’s a lot of old white people. That’s the question. The question is like sort of college educated, suburban white people, Kamala, with a Kelly or a Shapiro or a [?] Beshear. Give me any of them. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: I need white boy summer. 

 

Jon Favreau: White boy summer. Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Any of them. Fine. I think that it’s these older folks who a lot of them like, they just don’t like Trump because Trump he tried a coup. And that’s not what they don’t like the January 6th stuff. They don’t like that he’s a jerk. You know, there’s a section of them I haven’t dug in enough to know how much work you have to do to get those voters there. And if they’re simply anti-Trump enough that they would say yes, because those aren’t the ones that are always like, change. They’re just more like someone normal. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: You know, they’re not the big change agents. In fact, change freaks them out a little bit. And so those are the voters I’m most worried about. Now, that being said, I think that she so far and those are the ones who are also like a lady president, a Black lady president or like and–

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: You don’t say your pronouns to those old people. They do not. I don’t think you should say your pronouns, period. I do not think that is helpful when you are trying to win an election, she should take her pronouns off of anything she’s doing right now. 

 

Jon Favreau: I got that text from your colleague Tim Miller, too. He’s like, she’s got the pronouns in the Twitter bio. Can we? What can we do about that? 

 

Sarah Longwell: What can we do about that? Are they–

 

Jon Favreau: And I was like you know what. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Are they out? 

 

Jon Favreau: It’s the Democratic party. We’re not doing anything about that.

 

Sarah Longwell: Did somebody take them out? Oh, no. They should take them out. 

 

Jon Favreau: I know. 

 

Sarah Longwell: These are the old people who think that, you know, their kids are peeing in litter boxes because they identify as cats in schools or something. You gotta deal with with that. So anyway, I think here’s the thing now. I do you think we overestimate how sexist and racist a lot of these voters are. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: They can get excited. They will be much more concerned about the San Francisco progressive of it all than the Black woman of it all, because if she shows them that she’s tough, that she could prosecute a case against Donald Trump and that she’s not coming for their fracking or their. And she might be, [laugh] but, you know, if she’s not going to leave the border wide open, like if she could sort of convince those people of that. And I think that’s obviously the tension for any Democrat who runs right now. But this is where I feel like she could have it. I feel like the desperation of the Democratic base to have her do well, like people are pulling for her, and I feel like she could get some latitude on a few policy issues. Maybe not Gaza, but on maybe on some energy independence, run on kitchen table issues. Talk about the economy. That she wants to be there for everybody. Where Trump’s there for himself. I think you could start to get there with those people. 

 

Jon Favreau: Well, I totally agree. And I think she will have wide latitude. And I think she will have very few qualms about positioning herself that way. I do wonder about what she says with regard to some of the positions she has taken in the past, and especially during the the 2020 primary, where they all went a little little nuts. There’s a uh Dave McCormick, who’s the Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate ran an ad about all the progressive positions she took. Trump did a similar riff in his rally this week, and he’s starting to do ads about this. Uh. Let’s listen. 

 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] I am prepared to get rid of the filibuster to pass agreement to abolish Ice. 

 

[clip of unspecified news reporter] Is that a position you agree with? 

 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] And we need to probably think about starting from scratch. Outdated. It is wrongheaded thinking to think that the only way you’re going to get communities to be safe is to put more police officers on the street. 

 

[clip of unspecified news reporter 2] So for people out there who like their insurance, what they don’t get to keep it? 

 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] Let’s eliminate all of that. Let’s move on. I am opposed to any policy that would deny any human being public health period. 

 

[clip of unspecified news reporter 3] The more people get to know her, they’re going to be particularly impressed by her ability. 

 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] We did it. We did it Joe. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Every one of those policy positions, a dagger through my centrist, loving heart. 

 

Jon Favreau: Look, I, I remember, and I’m a big lib, but I remember during the primary when they got, they asked the question about decriminalizing border crossings, and they all raised their hands. And I was like, this is not a good position to take. 

 

Sarah Longwell: No, no. 

 

Jon Favreau: This is I, this is I don’t think this is what we want here to decriminalize illegal border crossings. But what do you think she can get away with here? Right. Like, does she just, like, take a mulligan on everything she said in the 2020 campaign? Or does she say, like, you know, let me tell you what I’ve done the last four years with Joe Biden, who’s my partner. And when I met when I was actually in the White House and when we’ve been governing, this is how we’ve governed. You know, I don’t I don’t know what she says. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Here’s what I would say. I would say, well, first of all, just as a broad thought, uh I think that if JD Vance is allowed to go from calling Trump heroin for, you know, the masses and saying that Trump’s a sociopath and America’s Hitler to being his vice president, I think people get to change their minds on some things. That’s one. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: I think there’s actually an easy way to deal with a lot of this. Say, I’ve been vice president for the last three years, and I’ve learned a lot doing that. I have seen what it means to govern, not in California, but for this entire country. 

 

Jon Favreau: And you know what I did? I sat there–

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: –with Joe Biden as we passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yup. 

 

Jon Favreau: I sat there as we passed like, you know, the biggest climate change legislation, but also, by the way, we’re producing more energy than we ever have before. 

 

Sarah Longwell: That’s right. Uh. And and on immigration, border crossings are now at their lowest level than they were when Donald Trump was last in office. And you know what? I believe that we need secure borders. Like I do think she’s got to do some of that. And I will, you know, if she can do that.And this is where I think the party’s got to give her the latitude to do that. I I believe that the American people, they could run that out a lot and it’s going to hurt her. And frankly, they’ve got to get up on TV as fast as humanly possible with the new rebrand of her. But the American people are like, I get learning and especially learning and changing one’s mind. They can do that. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah, that’s I kind of have that same suspicion. [music break]

 

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Jon Favreau: You mentioned them getting up on the air. If they do get up on the air, like they have a lot of choices here, obviously they’re going to have to push back on some of these negative ads, or at least do so on their own terms. What do you think voters would like to hear from her or know about her in this period where she’s trying to define herself? 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. So I would say if I were running this campaign, I would have her say a lot of nice things about America. Donald Trump right now says just garbage about America all the time. It’s a dark place. It’s a bad place. And I think that people right now want a hopeful message. I think you could do a little bit of Obama here, but like very future oriented. But America is a great place because people are going to try to paint her. I should have said this during the sort of what do you hear about race and gender, I’m not necessarily hearing this in the focus groups, but I know what Republicans are going to do. This DEI president stuff is real. It’s going to work with a certain kind of person more on the grounds of like, it’s going to tag into the she didn’t earn it, right? She just got this handed to her from Joe Biden. So I think that she has to show people a sense of like, I’m an American and I love this country. Like this country gave me a lot. I am good with this country, you know, because people, they’re going to try to paint her as something outside. This is why the Obama birth certificate was a thing, right? They will take anybody who is of color or any other difference, and they will try to paint it as outside the mainstream in some way or outside in a way that people can’t connect to. And so she needs to connect to them on the things that they can feel happy and good about, which is like, and Joe Biden was good at this, Joe Biden, even in his in his speech saying goodbye last night. I had my quibbles with it. But the way he talks about America is the way I feel about America. And one of the reasons that I struggled, actually, one of the reasons I was a Republican is I felt like Democrats were down on America and they would say be negative about America. But now Trump’s the one talking negatively about America. And so, like, I think she can own America if she tries like broad messaging. 

 

Jon Favreau: I mean, you know, the 21 year old me listening to the Barack Obama’s 2004 convention speech, my first impression of it was like–

 

Sarah Longwell: Same. 

 

Jon Favreau: Oh, a Democrat who’s talking about patriotism and loving America. But it’s not just like the airbrushed patriotism of like, I like the flag, too. It’s like literally, my name is Barack Hussein Obama. My father was born in Kenya. But like, somehow that’s what this country’s all about, that someone like me can be included here, you know, and I do think that that she’s gonna have a moment, I think probably at the top of that convention speech where she reintroduces herself to the country, where it’s going to be, like, very important that she does exactly what you’re saying. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. Well, that’s my play. That’s my pitch. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah, no, I agree. So she has also has some big decisions to make around how she talks about Trump and how much she talks about Trump. So far, she has a riff that compares her track record as a prosecutor with his track record as a criminal. She talks about how Trump would bring chaos, fear, and hate. She talks about Project 2025. Based on your conversations with voters, what messages about Trump do you think at this point have the potential to move voters? And how much should she make the election a referendum on Trump versus like, she’s got to do some more work than Biden, obviously, to introduce herself, her views, her plans. 

 

Sarah Longwell: So what I see her doing and what I hope she will do is help to introduce herself and define herself as she is defining Trump, because a lot of what people have wanted. I don’t always love this in people, but it I do hear it from voters all the time is they want a fighter. They want someone who is prosecuting a case against Trump, and they want somebody tough. And one of the reasons people often are down on women as candidates, is that they don’t think they’re going to be tough enough. They’re worried about how they’ll deal with world leaders. And Donald Trump gets high marks for being decisive looking, you know, strong leadership. And that’s because people are confusing sort of the strongman authoritarian stuff with leadership. But I think that if she goes at him in a way that feels and she’s been doing this so far, so like you can see it when she’s doing it. Right now for example, I just saw a clip of her saying, I want a debate. I’m ready to debate. He’s trying to backpedal. Let’s debate. Let’s do it anytime, anywhere. Yes. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Like that. Right. It is about sort of showing I am not scared of this man one bit, but there’s a grievance victim thing. And like the out to get Trump thing, there’s a way where you can sort of tip into what people tag as like kind of Trump Derangement syndrome. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And you get there by talking about Trump too much. Right. So this is the this is the point you were just making, where she has got to find a way to be prosecuting a case against Trump, but not always on just behavior. He’s amoral or democracy. It also has to be on and I just saw something to this effect. Right. The not looking back how he mishandled Covid and drove the economy into the ditch, how he doesn’t care about middle class people, like how he does tax cuts for the rich. Like you can’t just prosecute the case on sort of democracy and he’s a bad guy. You have to tie it into policies that she can contrast with. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah, she can’t look like another one of those prosecutors that’s just out to get Donald Trump. 

 

Sarah Longwell: That’s right. 

 

Jon Favreau: For whatever reason. Because–

 

Sarah Longwell: That’s right. 

 

Jon Favreau: You’re right. That’s like a a resistance-y thing that she could tip into if she’s not careful. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Alvin Bragg and Letitia James and, you know, like–

 

Jon Favreau: Jack Smith. Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. That’s right. 

 

Jon Favreau: And she made this pivot in the first speech where she did the comparing the records. And she goes, but this is so about so much more than me and Donald Trump. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yes, yes. 

 

Jon Favreau: You know, she’s got to keep making that pivot to people I think. 

 

Sarah Longwell: That’s right. And she’s doing it well. 

 

Jon Favreau: How are the voters you’ve talked to in the last week feeling about Trump? Did they did you detect any newfound admiration for him after the assassination attempt? 

 

Sarah Longwell: No. 

 

Jon Favreau: Wow. 

 

Sarah Longwell: This was so in the swing voters again. So I’m talking about swing voters. It’s actually been pretty bad for him. A lot of conspiracies. 

 

Jon Favreau: Oh, God. 

 

Sarah Longwell: They think so little of him that there’s a lot of, like, I don’t know about this. Seems like it could be staged. There’s been a fair amount of that to the point where I’m like, all right, settle down. Everybody–

 

Jon Favreau: From swing voters too. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. These are not like the hardcore, you know, Dems or anything, but because they think Trump sucks and so they think like he would and he’s a show person and a liar. And none of them like a lot of what we asked and introduced the idea that you were hearing from a lot of sort of cable news and, uh you know, do you think that this will change Trump? And everyone was like, [laugh] no, you know, like there was no sense from the voters. I was watching Fox News last night during his speech. And so I was watching Laura Ingraham. And, you know, I think for Fox News watchers, they will continue to treat Trump as a martyr. But that is not coming through with swing voters. When swing voters talk about Trump, they dislike him intensely. Some of them are willing to vote for him based on things like the economy or the fact that he says he’s going to do something about the border. It is not because they like him or they feel good about him really in any way. And that’s why getting a credible alternative, uh is so important that they can just get there on. 

 

Jon Favreau: Uh. Project 2025. She’s been talking about it a lot. Is it coming up organically in the focus groups, and what do people say about it? 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. So it went from a thing that never any nobody ever said to like post-debate when suddenly for the first time there was like even before because people were mad about Joe Biden seemingly being pushed out. There was a lot of like, why aren’t you talking about Project 2025? And so a lot of people were like, hmm what’s Project 2025? And it went from never being mentioned to it comes up in absolutely every group now. 

 

Jon Favreau: Wow. 

 

Sarah Longwell: I would say their ability to drill down into it and know what something is in it is pretty one, the moderator said to one woman who was like, have you there’s really scary this Project 2025. And she’s like, well, what specifically scares you about it? And the yeah, well, you know, it’s and finally came up with it wants to eliminate gay marriage, which I don’t know that eliminating gay marriage is in there. It does do a lot of traditional family stuff. But–

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Uh. Anyway, the point is is it’s become this ca– it’s like woke. It’s like woke. It’s just like a catch all boogeyman for people. And so I think that there’s a tremendous amount of opportunity, though, because the 900 page Project 2025 is batshit crazy. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And there is so much that you can pull out. And I would not do not do what Democrats do where they build an enormous PowerPoint presentation on it, like find the five things that women are really going to care about because there’s a lot of stuff about like eliminating child care or things like, you know, find, a series of things in there that women would care about that you know, different things and like drive those things home for people. I do think you have to sort of teach more about it. But I’ll tell you, Democrats have been given a gift on messaging where organically people have decided that they care about this and they’re telling other people to care about this and that it’s scary. 

 

Jon Favreau: Well, that’s good news. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: That’s good news that it’s breaking through. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah. Not schedule F. Please don’t talk about schedule F, though, because that piece of it is like, everybody’s like, well, a president just gets to put in the people that they want. Nobody thinks that’s a bad part. 

 

Jon Favreau: Well, and she’s done a great job of already sort of hitting the economic components of–

 

Sarah Longwell: Yes. 

 

Jon Favreau: –Project 2025. So she’s not–

 

Sarah Longwell: Yes. 

 

Jon Favreau: –making it about just schedule F. Anything else that we should know from these post hand-off groups?

 

Sarah Longwell: You know, I would say this is going back to the very beginning of our conversation. But, you know, there there is some residual because I said the focus groups, the real people are moving less quickly than the people online are. Right. And so I think there’s still a week or so before they maybe hit some of the same excitement level. There is some frustration with the fact that Biden didn’t step down a lot earlier, that people feel like we’re in this position now because he shouldn’t have run again, and someone should have taken the keys a lot sooner. And I think that there’s a little bit of bitterness, this is especially within swing voters. 

 

Jon Favreau: Right. 

 

Sarah Longwell: I think there’s a little bit of bitterness that it’s sort of like has played out the way that it has. And so I think when Kamala Harris says, I’m going to earn this. I mean, and sometimes I was like, oh, I sort of wish Cori Bush could have done a little, a little mini primary against her. Just uh–

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Jon Lovett would understand this, but sometimes you need a fire making challenge, right? To get to the end. You got to have a fire making challenge to show you’ve earned it. You need it for your resume.

 

Jon Favreau: I thought on the other side, she was going to have it from like a Joe Manchin for a second. There’s–

 

Sarah Longwell: Yeah, that’s right. That would have been bad. That would have not been good. [laughter] Manchin stand down. And so I do think that her maybe acknowledging at some point sort of how this happened and making being a little bit like talking about what she’s learned and how passionate she’s gotten about wanting to help people. I think she’s going to have to do some of that to bring some of these people around who feel like when you, the DEI stuff is about not earning things, and so you don’t want that to take hold too much. And so I think some acknowledgment of that is good. Um. But man no, she should be she should go hard on immigration. Uh. Not hard, but I think that she should sound a little hawkish. I think it’s funny because they’re grabbing her when she was running to the left of everybody in the 2020 primary. But if you see stuff from actually before that–

 

Jon Favreau: I know. 

 

Sarah Longwell: –when she was a prosecutor, suddenly you’re like, oh, hey, look at that. I, I’m like, oh, this this warms my heart listening to this. She’s telling kids to get their butts back in school. You know, she’s being tough. I love that stuff. 

 

Jon Favreau: I mean, it’s also like there’s an Obama era immigration message that is both like, this is a wonderful country because we welcome people from all over the world, and we should give a pathway to people who are here working hard and want to become citizens. And also, this is a nation of laws, and we should make sure that the border is secure and we should be tough–

 

Sarah Longwell: That’ right. 

 

Jon Favreau: –on that. Like there’s just it’s simple and it’s there and it’s very popular and has been for some time. 

 

Sarah Longwell: And actually. Sorry. Let me, let me throw one last thing at you. So if there’s one thing voters can sniff out, it’s like the phoniness. And I think where she has struggled in the past and the reason they’ve been able to brand her in certain ways is that she has either when she was running for president in 2020, I don’t think that far left stuff was her. And I don’t think when you’re the vice president and you have to hold somebody else’s reputation, somebody else’s policies as your own, that can be uncomfortable, right? It’s hard not to argue as yourself, but to argue with somebody else. It makes you have to calculate a lot more, calibrate a lot more. And my hope, and I think even my expectation, is that her being allowed to be authentically herself as she runs this campaign could be one of the best things for her, not just because I think she’ll be slightly more moderate on policy, but because I think that they won’t be able to, I think she will look like a different person to them in her authentic skin, in her authentic like way of being, getting to define these policies for herself. That’s what I’m seeing from her so far. And I’ll tell you what, man, nothing with these voters. All of them beats authenticity. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yep. And I totally agree with this. I think she does know who she is. And I even think that some of now the clips that are, you know, uh going viral on the internet of her, like, laughing and having a good time and the coconut tree stuff that’s different than her in the 2020 primary, who seemed someone like she was always worried about what position she was taking. The laugh and everything else that’s like her being like, you know what? I’m a little goofy, but I know who I am. I feel good about who I am, and this is just who I’m going to be right now. Like, she’s sort of like sort of calmed down the last year and just like sort of found herself a little bit and I think so, I think it puts her in a good position to do exactly what you just said. Sarah Longwell, thank you, as always. I know you’re uh, you’re busy conducting so many focus groups, so we appreciate you coming back on The Wilderness. And uh, we’ll talk to you again soon. 

 

Sarah Longwell: Thanks so much for having me. [music break]

 

Jon Favreau: That’s our show. We’ll be back in two weeks with more on what voters are saying about Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and the 2024 election. The Wilderness is a production of Crooked Media. It’s written and hosted by me, Jon Favreau. Our senior producer and editor is Andrea B. Scott. Austin Fisher is our producer, and Farrah Safari is our associate producer. Sound design by Vasilis Fotopoulos, music by Marty Fowler, Charlotte Landes and Jordan Cantor sound engineered the show. Thanks to Katie Long, Reid Cherlin, Matt DeGroot and Madeleine Haeringer for production support. To our video team, Rachel Gaewski, Joseph Dutra, Chris Russell, Molly Lobell, and David Toles, who filmed and edited the show. If The Wilderness has inspired you to get involved, head on over to VoteSaveAmerica.com/2024 to sign up and find a volunteer shift near you. [music break]

 

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