• Super Tuesday was mostly a blowout on the Republican side for former President Donald Trump. Nikki Haley did manage to eke out a win in Vermont, but that’s not enough to give her a clear path to victory. Danielle Deiseroth, the executive director of the progressive think tank Data for Progress, helps us interpret what the Super Tuesday results could mean for both Republicans and Democrats in November.
• And in headlines: Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed the GOP-backed Arizona Border Invasion Act, Senator Kyrsten Sinema won’t seek re-election, and Dartmouth’s basketball team votes to unionize.

Show Notes:

• Data For Progress – https://www.dataforprogress.org/
• Vote Save America – https://votesaveamerica.com/
• What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast
• Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/

TRANSCRIPT

Juanita Tolliver: It’s Wednesday, March 6th. I’m Juanita Tolliver. 

Priyanka Aribindi: And I’m Priyanka Aribindi and this is What a Day where we are seeking investments and cash loans from anybody who got rich off of Bitcoin once again. 

Juanita Tolliver: Yeah, let’s be real. We know it’s just going to go back down folks. But give your money to us while Bitcoin is high. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Yeah we take back everything we said about you for several years. Let’s just pretend it didn’t happen. It’s fine.

Juanita Tolliver: For a fee. For a fee. 

Priyanka Aribindi: For a fee we will take it back. [laughter] Thank you Juanita. [music break]

Juanita Tolliver: On today’s show, there is still an impasse in cease fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Plus, an appeals court struck down Florida’s Stop Woke act. 

Priyanka Aribindi: But first, the smoke has mostly cleared on Super Tuesday, where 16 states and American Samoa went to the polls yesterday. And it should come as no surprise but on the Republican side, Donald Trump won almost every single contest. 

[clip of Donald Trump] This was an amazing, an amazing night. An amazing day. It’s been an incredible period of time in our country’s history. It’s been sad in so many ways, but I think it’s going to be inspiring because we’re going to do something that, frankly, nobody has been able to do for a long time. 

Priyanka Aribindi: We’re recording this at 10:30 p.m. eastern on Tuesday night, so there are still a lot of mail-in and absentee ballots out there. The tallies are not final yet, but this is what we know as of now. 

Juanita Tolliver: Trump’s primary challenger, Nikki Haley, hasn’t dropped out yet. [laugh] On Super Tuesday, she eked out a win in Vermont. That’s in addition to her win in DC earlier this week. However, her path to becoming the Republican nominee is next to nonexistent. Trump has taken every other state so far, and he’s getting closer to the 1215 delegates that he needs to clinch his party’s nomination. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Right. And on the other side of this, we were also watching how Democrats fared. There is a lot that we can tell based on how some of those primary contests went, what the turnout looked like, and more. And that information can give us a clue about how strong or weak the party will be heading into November. So to dig into all of this, we spoke with an expert, Danielle Deiseroth. She is the executive director of the progressive think tank data for progress. Danielle, welcome to What a Day. 

Danielle Deiseroth: Thanks so much for having me on one of the biggest holidays for political nerds. So thank you. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Before we dive in to specific states and contests, can you just give us your overall impression of how Super Tuesday went and you know what position Democrats are in after last night? 

Danielle Deiseroth: I don’t think that President Biden and Democrats can really read too much into these results just because this is an uncompetitive Democratic primary. Primary turnout and margins are not necessarily indicative of general election results, but I do think that there are some good nuggets in there for President Biden and Democrats to be optimistic about. I mean, Nikki Haley winning in Vermont, despite it being a open primary. So that’s a little bit different than a closed primary where only Republicans are voting. I think that was pretty surprising to me. I I was a little bearish on Nikki Haley’s chances, but digging into some of the exit polling data, again exit polls you kind of have to take with a grain of salt. But I think that there– 

Juanita Tolliver: Mm hmm. 

Danielle Deiseroth: There could be some good signs in there for President Biden looking at Haley voters who might become Biden voters come fall. 

Juanita Tolliver: Yeah, that was definitely something that jumped out at me too. The energy in which Haley voters were like, I will absolutely never support that man, Donald Trump in the general ever. Right? Like it’s clear, right? 

Danielle Deiseroth: Yeah. And something that has surprised me is still just the percentage of voters who still don’t think that the election is going to be between Biden and Trump. We’ve been monitoring this for a while now. 

Juanita Tolliver: I’m making a face for our listeners. I’m confused how that realization has not sunk in for the population. 

Danielle Deiseroth: Yeah. I mean, we just got new polling back just a few days ago, and we found that 70% of voters think that the 2024 election will be between Biden and Trump. That’s a high watermark of what we’ve observed over the past few months. But still, more than one in five voters say it is too soon to tell, including nearly three in ten independent voters. So we’ll see how those numbers shift after Super Tuesday and it becomes abundantly clear that despite her victories in DC and Vermont, that Nikki Haley is not going to be the nominee. Um. So as more voters start coming to this realization that, okay, yes, this is going to be between Biden and Trump again, how are they going to choose between those two candidates when they’re the only two options left? I think that’s where President Biden and Democrats are hopeful that especially like some of those Haley voters, those Never Trumpers are going to come home just like they did in 2020. 

Juanita Tolliver: Let’s zoom into the Tar Heel State, North Carolina. I classify it as a pinkish purple state, given the amount of Republican control in the state legislature. And I think it’s a really good bellwether to gauge how well Democrats and Republicans will perform in the fall. The gubernatorial match up will be between Trump backed Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, who I feel like I need to let people know, he’s an anti-abortion conspiracy theorist who said that God formed him to fight LGBTQ acceptance, and he called Beyonce satanic. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Just the cherry on top, really.

Juanita Tolliver: Just some context and color for him. On the Democratic side, though, state Attorney General Josh Stein won the party’s nomination. So how might this matchup affect Biden’s chances in November, when North Carolina will be a key state in the presidential election? 

Danielle Deiseroth: Ugh. You know, I’m getting deja vu thinking back to Pennsylvania in 2022. That’s where I’m from. And Doug Mastriano was a very extreme hard line conservative candidate. And I had folks in my life who are typically not very engaged on political issues, even talking to me, saying, oh my God, this guy’s crazy. We can’t have him in office. So I could really see the potential for there to be a surge of very strong anti MAGA energy coming to help defeat, you know, the Republican candidate in North Carolina. I again just want to be like very cautious because anything could happen. And–

Juanita Tolliver: Right. 

Danielle Deiseroth: We’re still far aways from November. But in 2022 Republicans nominated some very interesting candidates like Doug Mastriano that voters widely rejected. And I think that if they continue to make the same mistake, I mean, they’re a little bit more disciplined, I would say, in terms of candidate recruitment for the 2024 cycle than they were in 2022. But what could be seen as an easy pickup for Republicans becomes a lot more challenging when the person that they’re nominating is so out of step with where voters are at in terms of– 

Juanita Tolliver: Right. 

Danielle Deiseroth: –social values. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Totally. Switching gears a little bit to some of the issues that candidates have been talking about, voters are animated by. We’ve known that abortion continues to be a winning issue for Democrats. Since the fall of Roe, abortion protections have won every ballot that they’ve been on. Given the context of the latest attacks on reproductive rights by Republicans, did we see that kind of same energy driving voters around the country here? 

Danielle Deiseroth: I just like keep coming back to this fact that only 70% of people actually think it’s going to be between Biden and Trump, and that sort of has a trickle down effect in terms of what voters actually think Trump will do if he becomes president. And we did some polling on this, too, and we found that less than half of voters think that Trump would actually pass a national abortion ban. Only 24% of voters we found blame Trump for abortion bans. Primarily they blame the Supreme Court. But even when we tell them they can choose as many options as they want, fewer voters choose Trump. So that’s a huge issue. 

Juanita Tolliver: Fascinating. He’s literally beating his chest as much as he can, saying I overturned Roe by myself. 

Danielle Deiseroth: Exactly. And we’ve seen President Biden and Democrats really start aggressively hammering Trump. And, you know, with this most recent IVF decision in Alabama, which very smartly, President Biden, Democrats have really pounced on this. And we found in our polling that over 80% of voters think it is important to protect access to IVF and to birth control. So the Dobbs effect is not waning. People are still incredibly angry and motivated to vote because of reproductive rights. And this latest issue with IVF and seeing Senate Republicans reject a bill to protect access to IVF is just like the easiest thing for Democrats to make a campaign ad on going into the fall and remind voters, hey, we are the party who wants to protect reproductive access, and this is what Republicans want to do if they take office. 

Juanita Tolliver: I appreciate you mentioning Alabama, because that’s a state where I’ve been watching some down ballot races, especially with their new congressional maps, and you have some Republican incumbents facing each other. So looking at returns elsewhere, where did you see other interesting outcomes? And another state I’m thinking of is California with their Senate primary, that could yield some interesting results. 

Danielle Deiseroth: Yeah. You know, I was also interested in looking at Virginia. Trump is going to cruise to a victory in Virginia. So the California race in particular is a tough pill to swallow, just in terms of the money being spent in the race, when there are so many other–

Juanita Tolliver: Right. 

Danielle Deiseroth: –Democrats that are facing really tough elections in swing states. So there’s definitely, I think, a lot of heartburn among Democrats thinking about how much money is being spent to defend a really, really tough Senate map in this election cycle. So I think that’s something that really has stuck out to me. 

Priyanka Aribindi: And walking away from yesterday, what do you think that Biden and Democrats need to focus on? Were there any other weaknesses that you identified? 

Danielle Deiseroth: State of the Union is a big opportunity. This is like a Super Bowl of uh you know, political events this week. So if I were on the Biden campaign, I would look at Super Tuesday results, and my priors probably wouldn’t change that much. Already thinking about Never Trumpers and swinging your voters that were part of the 2020 coalition that we need to keep together in the election in the fall, and just state of the Union, and having that opportunity to have so many eyeballs tuned in to the television, you know, what we’re seeing in terms of folks’ awareness of the Biden agenda versus their support for President Biden’s policies is a huge difference. Like 80, 90% of people support so many of the president’s accomplishments and, you know, policy priorities like protecting Social Security, lowering prescription drug prices. But like one in five voters have heard the president talk a lot about those issues. So with more eyes and focus on the policy agenda, this is an opportunity for President Biden to really hone in and remind folks that this is what’s at stake. And this is it. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Right. 

Danielle Deiseroth: This is what we’re working with. 

Juanita Tolliver: Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of the progressive think tank, Data for Progress. Thanks so much. 

Danielle Deiseroth: Thanks so much for having me. 

Juanita Tolliver: And Super Tuesday might be done, but November is just around the corner. Find out how you can get involved by heading to VoteSaveAmerica.com. That’s the latest for now. We’ll be back after some ads. [music break]. 

[AD BREAK]

Priyanka Aribindi: Let’s wrap up with some headlines. 

[sung] Headlines. 

Priyanka Aribindi: President Joe Biden said yesterday that the fate of a potential cease fire deal in Gaza was in Hamas’s hands in the third consecutive day of talks, with no signs of an end to the gridlock. Negotiators for Hamas, as well as mediators from Qatar and Egypt, are in Cairo trying to secure a 40 day cease fire. But Israel’s delegation did not attend. The deal presented to Hamas would free some hostages the militant group captured in the October 7th terrorist attack. And aid to Gaza would be increased in an effort to avert famine. Hamas would also be required to provide a list of all hostages. But in a press conference yesterday, Hamas senior leader Osama Hamden maintained demands for a permanent cease fire, a full withdrawal of Israeli troops, and the return of displaced Palestinians, especially in the north. Israel has stated that it wants a pause in the fighting as a means to release hostages from Hamas captivity, and insists that it will not end the conflict until Hamas is, quote, “eliminated.” Hammering out a deal in the next week is a top priority for negotiators, especially because the month long Islamic holiday of Ramadan begins next Monday. According to Reuters, violence between Israelis and Palestinians often spikes during Ramadan in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, even in years without active wars. 

Juanita Tolliver: And in news out of Arizona, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed the GOP backed Arizona Border Invasion Act on Monday. It’s a state Senate bill that would have allowed local police to arrest and detain migrants if they crossed the southern border at any place other than a legal port of entry. In a letter explaining her veto, the governor said, quote, “this bill does not secure our border, will be harmful for communities and businesses in our state, and burdensome for law enforcement personnel and the state judicial system.” And that’s not all, because Hobbs was on a roll this week. Also on Monday, she announced the launch of a program to forgive medical debt for up to one million Arizonans over the next two years. Take a listen to Hobbs at her press conference on Monday. 

[clip of Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs] Hardworking, middle class Arizonans should not be forced to have those difficult kitchen table conversations because of medical debt from conditions they cannot control. 

Juanita Tolliver: I’m a fan. I love to see this type of news update. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Big time. 

Juanita Tolliver: This program is targeted to help extremely low income Arizonans, as well as those who are in deep medical debt. In total, we’re talking about wiping out roughly two billion dollars of debt, the largest medical debt relief effort by a state ever. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Listen, someone showed up to work this week. It’s Katie Hobbs crushing it. 

Juanita Tolliver: Yes. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Congratulations to these people in Arizona. Continuing the congratulations for the people in Arizona, [laughter] staying in the state, the state’s independent senator, Kyrsten Sinema, announced yesterday that she will not seek reelection after polling basically made that decision for her. She didn’t say what is next, but presumably more time to focus on her true passions, which are advocating on behalf of corporations and hedge funds. Sinema’s exit turns the Arizona race into a likely two way contest between the progressive leaning representative Ruben Gallego and MAGA lunatic/ex-Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. 

Juanita Tolliver: Yeah it’s pretty much an easy choice there, Arizona voters. And if you’re unfamiliar with Ruben Gallego, check out his website immediately. The men’s basketball team at Dartmouth voted to unionize yesterday in a first of its kind action for college athletes. The school quickly appealed to the National Labor Relations Board, seeking to reverse the decision that classified Dartmouth players as employees, thereby granting them the right to unionize. If the appeal isn’t successful, the college can expect an assist from the NCAA. Back in February, the organization’s president hinted to reporters that he was willing to commit to a long fight against the Dartmouth team in its attempt to unionize. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Boo, tomato tomato. 

Juanita Tolliver: Truly. 

Priyanka Aribindi: And lastly, trick boots or not, Ron DeSantis was not standing tall on Monday. The Florida governor’s prized Stop Woke act was blocked by a federal appeals court, who described it as a, quote, “First Amendment sin”. Very uh choice language there. You may have forgotten what the Stop Woke act is. Possibly because DeSantis said woke every nine seconds on the presidential campaign trail and the word lost all its meaning. So to remind you, the Stop Woke act barred workplaces, schools and colleges from holding training events that could make participants feel ashamed about the historical actions of their race or sex. If that sounds bananas to you, it is because it really is. 

Juanita Tolliver: Yes. 

Priyanka Aribindi: It was part of DeSantis’s broader attack on diversity, equity and inclusion programs, and Florida lawmakers approved it in 2022. But a federal judge ruled that it was unconstitutional a few months later as it restricted free speech and expression. Yesterday’s ruling affirmed the lower court ruling and means that Florida remains unable to enforce this law. DeSantis officials have signaled that he may appeal to the Supreme Court. 

Juanita Tolliver: Of course he’s going to keep riding this but also I just want to emphasize that the impact of this law is already being felt, I think. Just last Friday, there were reports that University of Florida cancelled all DEI related contracts and fired 28 DEI related staffers from the university, so the impact is still being felt across the state. 

Priyanka Aribindi: Those are impacts that will continue, that will compound over time. And just–

Juanita Tolliver: Right. 

Priyanka Aribindi: It’s really not good. And those are the headlines. 

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Priyanka Aribindi: That is all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a review. Don’t give Kyrsten Sinema a job and tell your friends to listen. 

Juanita Tolliver: Yeah, I’m like, which one of her donors has picked up her next contract? And if you’re into reading and not just the First Amendment to Ron DeSantis like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Juanita Tolliver.

Priyanka Aribindi: I’m Priyanka Aribindi.

[spoken together] And send us your Bitcoin. 

Juanita Tolliver: Actually, can you just transfer it into cash before you send it to me? Because I’m not– 

Priyanka Aribindi: Yeah I don’t–

Juanita Tolliver: –messing with one of those little teller machines. 

Priyanka Aribindi: I don’t know what to do with a bitcoin. I don’t know what to do with that. But I’ll take it either way. 

Juanita Tolliver: I appreciate that you’re open. [laughing]

Priyanka Aribindi: Beggars can’t be choosers. [music break]

Juanita Tolliver: What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded and mixed by Bill Lancz. Our associate producers are Raven Yamamoto and Natalie Bettendorf. We had production help today from Jon Millstein, Greg Walters, and Julia Claire. Our showrunner is Leo Duran and our executive producer is Adriene Hill. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. 

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