• Fighting in the Middle East between Israel, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and Iran dramatically ramped up this week. On Tuesday, Iran launched around 200 missiles at Israel in response to the assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week. With the help of the U.S., Israel was able to defend against most of the Iranian airstrikes and prevent significant damage. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate, while Iranian officials have warned of more airstrikes should Israel do so. Ben Samuels, U.S. correspondent for Haaretz, says the events show just how little control the Biden administration has over what happens next in the widening conflict.
• And in headlines: President Biden and Vice President Harris surveyed damage from Hurricane Helene in separate visits to the southeast, a newly unsealed court filing gives the public the most detailed picture yet of former President Trump’s “private criminal conduct” in the lead up to the Jan. 6 insurrection, and a federal appeals court says betting on U.S. elections can resume

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TRANSCRIPT

Jane Coaston: It’s Thursday, October 3rd. I’m Jane Coaston. And this is What a Day. And I am not paying for CNN. Sure, I’m paying for Hulu, Disney plus, Netflix, the New York Times. Amazon Prime, Britbox, Acorn, Strava, Woop, Apple Music, a bunch of podcasts I don’t need to tell you about, and Barkbox for my dog. But CNN is where I draw the line. For now, maybe. [music break] On today’s show, President Biden tours damage from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, and special counsel Jack Smith lays out former President Donald Trump’s, quote, “private criminal conduct” in a newly unsealed court document. But first, fighting in the Middle East between Israel, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Iran ramped up this week. On Tuesday, Iran launched around 200 missiles at Israel in response to Israel’s assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel, with the help of the U.S., was able to defend against those strikes and prevent significant damage. Iran’s military said the attack was limited to military targets in Israel and warned of more strikes if Israel retaliates. But both Israeli and U.S. officials still see it as a major escalation. Here’s Vice President Kamala Harris speaking on Tuesday in Washington, DC. 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] My commitment to the security of Israel is unwavering. And let us be clear, Iran is not only a threat to Israel. Iran is also a threat to American personnel in the region, American interest, and innocent civilians across the region who suffer at the hands of Iran based and backed terrorist proxies. 

Jane Coaston: Biden administration officials have shifted away from their calls last week for a cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah following Iran’s missile strikes. But on Wednesday, President Biden did say there was one thing he wouldn’t support Israel doing. He says he would not support Israel striking an Iranian nuclear site. But the events of the last few weeks have shown just how little control the Biden administration has over Israel’s military actions. For more on what’s going on in the region and the U.S. response, I spoke with Ben Samuels, U.S. correspondent for Haaretz, Israel’s oldest daily newspaper. Ben, thank you so much for coming on What a Day. 

Ben Samuels: My pleasure to be here. 

Jane Coaston: So White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said this week that Iran will face, quote, “severe consequences for its missile strikes on Israel.” To what extent has the position of the Biden administration around Israel and Lebanon shifted since Tuesday’s attacks? 

Ben Samuels: Well, I think something that you’ve been seeing over the past few days is something that you’ve really kind of seen come true over the past year, which is that the United States is really sort of on the back foot when it comes to Israeli policy. Last week at the United Nations General Assembly, you were seeing American officials really sort of take a premature victory lap as if that the announcement of a proposal for a 21 day cease fire was, in fact, a 21 day cease fire in itself. And that was met with Benjamin Netanyahu taking the stage at the United Nations, saying that they weren’t going to stop bombing Lebanon. And that was immediately followed by the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. So what you’re seeing is this sort of evolution where American officials, their sort of red lines that they’re setting are completely shifting as Israelis push this even further and further along. And what happened with Iran is that there are shades of gray and nuances, and it’s not necessarily a binary in terms of the United States agrees with everything that Israel does. But when it comes to a country launching 200 ballistic missiles at its ally, it is a binary and it is very black and white. So when Iran takes the strike, the United States has absolutely no other choice but to say we are completely 100% in your corner. We will do whatever we need to do to defend you. 

Jane Coaston: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday, quote, “Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.” What type of response is most likely from Israel, given what we’ve seen over the last week, two weeks, year? 

Ben Samuels: It’s definitely going to be a strong response. You know, I think the definition of proportionate is, you know, it remains to be seen. It’s very likely that they will target some oil interests in Iran. If you are asking what much of the Israeli war cabinet would like to see, they would like to see strikes on Iran’s nuclear targets as much as Israel is going at it alone in so many ways. You know, the United States didn’t want to see Israel take down six city like big apartments in Beirut just to kill the leadership of Hezbollah. Once they did that, they said, okay, maybe this is a good opportunity. When it comes to striking nuclear targets inside of Iran. That is such a big step that they wouldn’t necessarily be able to take that without consulting with the Americans. And since Joe Biden himself already said I’m not for this, rather than, you know, U.S. officials leak on background that they’re not for it. That sort of sets a different kind of red line. 

Jane Coaston: I’m interested to hear a little bit talking about Lebanon specifically. What has previous action in Lebanon taught Israel? 

Ben Samuels: Apparently not that much. I mean, when you see Israel say that they’re going to take these limited ground incursions, the mission creep in previous examples has really set into really dramatic effect. You know, they said it in the 1980s and that turned into a 20 year occupation and then they said it in 2006 and that turned into a huge war. And that was resolved through a United Nations Security Council resolution that never really went into effect. You know, the resolution says that Hezbollah needs to go 24km north of the border to this river, and they’ve never done that. So Israel is saying, okay, we’re going to go five kilometers above the Israeli-Lebanon border and we’re going to clear this out and give us some breathing room. But does anyone in the international community believe that they’re going to stop at five kilometers? Absolutely not. And do Israelis believe that they’re going to stop at five kilometers? I would venture to say not really. So if you’re saying, okay, we’re going to take you at your word, then you got to take them at their word because they’ve shown in the past exactly what that means. 

Jane Coaston: The Israeli military is calling its ground invasion of Lebanon limited. But as you said earlier, there’s reason to doubt that. The Lebanese health ministry has said that over a thousand Lebanese people have been killed and a quarter of the dead are women and children. Is this going to turn into another Gaza? 

Ben Samuels: You know, it remains to be seen because, first off, I would issue the caveat that any time a country’s military crosses into another sovereign country’s borders, you know, I think limited carries a little bit of water with that. But that being said, it’s important to note that Israel was really caught unprepared by the events of October 7th and they did not necessarily have a game plan into the Gaza war that went beyond revenge. They’ve been planning for this war with Hezbollah since 2006. You know, they have had such deep intelligence, which has really been seen from the sort of strikes that they’ve been taking, whether it’s the exploding pagers and the exploding walkie talkies or being able to completely wipe out four different levels of seniority inside of Hezbollah leadership in the span of days. You know, this shows that they really know what they’re doing here and they’re able to sort of do this in a much more quick, meticulous level than in Gaza, where it was just sort of carpet bombing for the sake of carpet bombing. 

Jane Coaston: So it sounds kind of a silly question, but Hezbollah has long acted as a state within a state in Lebanon. So where has the Lebanese government been? What’s their response? 

Ben Samuels: You know, the Lebanese government is saying that they want this U.N. resolution that I mentioned earlier to be put in place, that they said, okay, we want Hezbollah to go north of the Litani River. Israel will abide by international law and it won’t do flights into Lebanese territory. It won’t just do these sort of strikes. You know, over a million people have already been displaced in Lebanon. They need to cut that out at the very least. But it’s also important to recognize the role that Hezbollah played inside of Lebanese society. The Hezbollah fighting force was more powerful than the Lebanese military. And if you ask so many of the Lebanese people, Hezbollah was really providing the sort of services that are expected of the state. So while it’s anticipated that the Lebanese government would sort of take the lead and take the reins here, they don’t necessarily have the authority or the power to rule over the state that you would normally assume a government would over its own sovereign territory. 

Jane Coaston: So as we near the one year anniversary of October 7th, where do you see these conflicts going with Israel now fighting on multiple fronts, and what are the risks of a wider regional war? 

Ben Samuels: You know, I think we’re there. I mean, over the past several days, you know, it’s something that and a lot of sources of mine and a lot of colleagues of mine have been talking about, you know, at what point does this become a war? At what point do we stop calling this intensifying conflict on the precipice or the edge of total all out regional war? We’re there. This is a war. And what happens next? It’s just so unclear. I think if you asked anyone a week ago that this is where we would be, they would say absolutely not. That’s like so beyond the furthest stretch of imagination possible. I mean, this is just spiraling out so fast. And there isn’t really any responsible leader on the ground trying to put this back in the bottle. 

Jane Coaston: Not to make this conflict about us. But America is in the midst of an election. You are based in D.C.. How does this play out here? 

Ben Samuels: I should say there are some U.S. officials that are cautiously optimistic that this limited ground incursion could bring about the kind of Middle East policy that U.S. officials have wanted to see forever. Other U.S. officials believe that this is Benjamin Netanyahu trying to steer the election toward Donald Trump. And I think if you ask Benjamin Netanyahu, he would say he would want Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris 15 times out of ten. This is bad news for the Democrats, no matter how you cut it, either Kamala Harris decides to, you know, be stalwart. I completely support Israel’s right to defend itself no matter what and she further alienates progressive voters that are already disillusioned because of what’s happened in the past 12 months. The other side of that is that she takes on a harsher tone toward Israel and she gives Donald Trump ammunition where Kamala Harris is anti-Israel and she’s anti-Semitic. And because of her weakness on Iran, that’s what allowed October 7th to happen in the first place. So she’s really in a sort of lose lose situation. And not only that, but with a regional war, it really increases the odds that American interests will be embroiled in this, whether it’s U.S. military forces, whether it is Iran taking revenge by striking oil fields throughout the Middle East, which would have a very real effect on the US economy. You know. This is the sort of thing where it crosses that threshold from being a sort of niche issue where it’s okay if you care about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or you care about human rights on a greater level, then this may sort of inform how you vote. But this isn’t going to be the make or break issue if such when this becomes a war that embroils American interests, that immediately catapults to the top. 

Jane Coaston: Ben, thank you so much for joining us. This is really helpful. 

Ben Samuels: Thanks so much for having me. 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Ben Samuels, U.S. correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. We’ll get to the news in a moment, but if you like the show. Make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. [music break]

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Jane Coaston: And now the news. 

[sung] Headlines. 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] I think that in these moments of hardship, one of the beauties about who we are as a country is, is people really rally together and show the best of who they are in moments of crisis. And we’ve seen that throughout the region where communities are coming together, um where where people are helping perfect strangers, where they are providing food, water, water, shelter um for their neighbors. And that neighbor may be somebody they’ve never met before but are doing the work of helping each other out. 

Jane Coaston: That’s Vice President Kamala Harris after she surveyed the damage from Hurricane Helene in Augusta, Georgia, on Wednesday. Harris assured people that more help is on the way and promised the federal government will reimburse local officials for the cost of the recovery effort. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden flew over devastated communities in western North Carolina. Here he is speaking to reporters afterward. 

[clip of President Joe Biden] The damage is still being assessed, but many people are still unaccounted for. So I’m here to say the United States, the nation has your back. The nation has your back. We’re not leaving until you’re back on your feet completely. 

Jane Coaston: The death toll from the storm continues to rise, nearing 200 at the time of our recording. It includes 11 workers at a Tennessee plastics factory. State officials are now investigating why the employees were not sent home earlier. And just when I thought maybe I wouldn’t have to think about scandal prone North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson again for at least a few days. Local news station WRAL has reported that Robinson was the only Council of state member to abstain from a vote to declare a state of emergency prior to the storm. In spite of that, Robinson has now taken to X, formally Twitter, to declare that, quote, “The time for politics is over.” The October surprise gods have graced us once again. In a newly unsealed court filing Wednesday, special counsel Jack Smith laid out his most detailed telling yet of former President Trump’s, quote, “private criminal conduct” in the lead up to the January 6th insurrection. In the 165 page document, Smith wrote that Trump was acting as a candidate, quote, “when he pursued multiple criminal means to disrupt through fraud and deceit the government function by which votes are collected and counted,” a function in which the defendant as president, had no official role. The candidate part of all of that is important. Since the Supreme Court earlier this year granted Trump and all future presidents broad immunity from prosecution for their official presidential acts. Trump’s legal team has argued everything Trump did after the election was a presidential act. Of course, Trump just had to truth about this, saying, quote, “I called for everyone to act peacefully and patriotically and demanded that D.C. be protected. We have to end the witch hunts and restore our broken justice system.” And yes, the yelling was the all caps in the truth post. Did Trump not see the same Capitol riot we did? Because that’s not what happened. Also, let’s not forget that when asked yesterday if he would trust the election process this go around, Trump said this: 

[clip of Donald Trump] I’ll let you know in about uh 33 days. 

Jane Coaston: Well, I feel better now. As if Sean Combs’ federal indictment wasn’t bad enough, a Texas attorney says he has plans to file civil lawsuits on behalf of 120 alleged victims of the rapper and music mogul. Here’s attorney Tony Buzbee at a press conference on Tuesday. 

[clip of Tony Buzbee] The biggest secret in the entertainment industry that really wasn’t a secret at all has finally been revealed to the world. The wall of silence has now been broken and victims are coming forward. 

Jane Coaston: Buzbee says one of the accusers was nine years old at the time of the alleged abuse. A lawyer for Combs said, quote, “Mr. Combs emphatically and categorically denies as false and defamatory any claim that he sexually abused anyone, including minors.” Combs is currently in prison and trying to appeal his bail denial again in a higher court. A federal appeals court says betting on U.S. elections can resume. Yay? A panel of federal judges based in Washington, D.C., said the prediction market sta rtup Kalshi can relaunch trading on whether Republicans or Democrats will win control of the House and Senate in the upcoming election. In doing so, the judges rejected an argument from federal regulators who said the wagers could harm the integrity of elections. The decision Wednesday isn’t the final say on the issue. The appeals court is still considering the broader underlying case. The judges just declined to block trading while arguments play out. As of our recording time Wednesday night. Democrats are favored to take the House and Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Also, don’t bet on elections. And that’s the news. As far as I can tell. There have always been two Donald Trumps. There is one that seems to be the idea of Donald Trump, a projection onto an actual person of the dreams and desires of millions of Americans and even some swath of the American media. You know what I’m talking about. The strong man who’s also a dove, the rich man who cares about the working man, the family protector. And then there’s, you know, Donald Trump, an elderly, angry man who benefited from a rich family, has cheated on all of his wives, sexually assaulted at least one woman and has never seen a grift he didn’t want to grift someone else with. Let’s take the military and our veterans. Here’s how the idea of Donald Trump thinks about them. Here’s U.S. Congressman and leader of Veterans for Trump, Brian Mast, describing why he thinks Trump is good for veterans. 

[clip of Brian Mast] Our President Trump, you all seen that photo of him where he’s hugging the American flag, wrapping his arms around it, embracing it because he loves this place. 

Jane Coaston: And then there’s how Trump actually talks about veterans. There are dozens of examples, remember? Quote, “I like people that weren’t captured okay.” But here’s the most recent one, an exchange with a reporter at a press conference in Milwaukee on Tuesday. 

[clip of unnamed reporter in Milwaukee] Do you believe that you should have been tougher on Iran after they had launched ballistic missiles in 2020 on U.S. forces in Iraq, leaving more than 100 U.S. soldiers injured? 

[clip of Donald Trump] So, first of all, injured. What does injured mean? Injured means you mean because they had a headache, because the bombs never hit the fort? So just so you understand, there was nobody ever tougher in Iraq. They had no money with me. They would have made any deal with me. I would have had a deal made within literally, I would have had a deal made within one week after the election. They were dying to make a deal. 

Jane Coaston: So first of all, Trump said Iraq there when he meant Iran. But more importantly, let’s be clear on what actually happened. After the US assassinated an Iranian military leader. Iran responded by firing at American military bases in Iraq, including al-Asad airbase. More than 100 soldiers suffered traumatic brain injuries as a result. 80 troops who were stationed at al-Assad were awarded the Purple Heart because of their injuries. The fake Donald Trump, he’s just that fake. A product of ads and dreams. The real Donald Trump. That’s him. A guy who has no problem heaving troops under the bus because they’re making him look bad. [music break] 

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Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a review. Donate to hurricane relief funds. Don’t bet on elections and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading and not just Jack Smith’s lengthy Trump court filings like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston. And stop making me subscribe to things tech overlords. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded by Jerik Centeno and mixed by Bill Lancz. Our associate producer is Raven Yamamoto. Our producer is Michell Eloy. We had production help today from Ethan Oberman, Tyler Hill, JoHanna Case, Joseph Dutra, Greg Walters and Julia Claire. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our executive producer is Adriene Hill. Our theme music is by Collin Gilliard and Kashaka. 

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