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“Welcome to the Panderdome.” (LIVE from Des Moines)

Trump caves on his Mexican trade war, and the race to win Iowa brings 19 Democratic candidates to Cedar Rapids. Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer joins Jon, Jon, Tommy, Dan, and Connie Schultz on stage in Des Moines, Iowa.

Show Notes:

Art of the Deal

Is this a deal or a cave?

  • NYT: Mexico Sets Domestic Priorities Aside to Meet Terms of U.S. Trade Deal
  • WaPo: Mexican officials hail tariff-averting pact with U.S. even as worries emerge
  • Bloomberg: Mexico Never Agreed to Farm Deal With U.S., Contradicting Trump

If you really want to know what Hugh Hewitt had to say here…

  • WaPo: Trump’s big win leaves critics sputtering – By Hugh Hewitt

Why did Trump back away from the tariffs at the last minute?

  • LA Times: Trump claims victory, but the U.S.-Mexico pact is a compromise, and tentative
  • Reuters: Trump is confident Mexico will enforce new immigration deal
  • Politico: Mexico crisis shows the limits of Trump’s brinksmanship

Will any of these actions actually reduce the flow of asylum seekers to the U.S.?

  • AP: Mexico-US tariff deal: Questions, concerns for migration
  • WaPo:  Border apprehensions are up more than 1,000 percent since April 2017
  • CBS: More than 10,000 asylum seekers returned under “Remain in Mexico” as U.S. set to expand policy.
  • WaPo: ICE deported veterans while ‘unaware’ it was required to carefully screen them, report says
  • NYT: Death on the Rio Grande: A Look at a Perilous Migrant Route
  • NYT: Mexico Has Two Options in Dealing With Trump Demands on Migration. Both Could Hurt.
  • CNN: 3 myths about Mexico and migration, debunked
  • Recode: Foreign tech workers are turning to Canada as US immigration becomes more difficult
  • LA Times: Facing pressure from Trump, Mexico detains two migrant caravan organizers
  • Financial Times: Mexico faces tough task enacting Trump’s migrant deal
  • NYT: Mexico Cracks Down on Migrants, After Pressure From Trump to Act

How does this latest move fit within the context of Trump’s overall strategy on immigration?

  • NYT: Trump Mixes Economic and National Security, Plunging the U.S. into Multiple Fights
  • Texas Tribune: More than 5,800 migrant kids are living in Texas shelters
  • Axios: Inside the horrors of migrant detention centers
  • Axios: How companies profit from immigrant detention
  • NYT Op-Ed by Nick Kristof: This Teenager Knows a Secret to Slowing Guatemalan Migration – Lesly Cano Gómez once thought she could never make a life in her village. But her outlook changed.
  • Foreign Policy: Trump Is Trying to Trap Democrats on Immigration – By James Traub
  • Mother Jones: Democrats Should Beat Up Trump Over Immigration – By Kevin Drum

If you want to get into the census stuff…

  • WaPo: Where a citizenship question could cause the census to miss millions of Hispanics — and why that’s a big deal

How should Democrats talk about this?

  • WaPo: Pelosi accuses Trump of ‘threats and temper tantrums’ in Mexico negotiations
  • NYT: Trump Is More Vulnerable to Democratic Attacks on Trade Than You Might Think – The Upshot – By Neil Irwin
  • New Yorker: By John Cassidy – A Weakening Economy May Be the Biggest Threat to Donald Trump

On Dems and talking about the economy…

  • NYT: A Weak Jobs Report Poses a New Challenge to Trump: A Slowing Economy
  • WaPo: U.S. hiring slows sharply as Trump’s trade war starts to bite
  • CNBC: Jobs creation slows dramatically with payrolls up just 75,000 in May, much worse than expected
  • Bloomberg: Trump’s 2020 Bet on the Economy Takes Hit Amid Signs of Slowdown
  • Vox: The May jobs report is a big disappointment for workers and bad news for Trump
  • WaPo: The Daily 202: ‘Why not lobsters?’: Mainers plead with Trump to help an industry suffering from his trade war

And kinda interesting…

  • Vox: Public support for left-wing policymaking has reached a 60-year high – By Matt Yglesias

Caucus Fever

What’s it like running a campaign in this state?

  • Reuters: Democrats to pour into Iowa for biggest event yet in 2020 White House race
  • CNN:  2020 Democrats will be tripping over each other in Iowa this weekend
  • Des Moines Register: 19 presidential candidates will go toe-to-toe in Iowa on Sunday; who can break from the pack?
  • Politico: ‘No tolerance whatsoever for the bulls—’: Iowa Dems warn against new Bernie-Hillary wars (May 10) – After a rancorous 2016 caucus battle that left the state party reeling, Democratic leaders are determined to keep the peace this year between the various campaigns.
  • Roll Call: How to survive and thrive in Iowa — words of wisdom from former staffers
  • Des Moines Register: Column – Five rules for Democrats running Iowa caucus campaigns – By Barbara Leach
  • WaPo: At Pride Fest in Des Moines, politics are in the spotlight – By Jenna Johnson
  • Vox: The Iowa caucuses, explained (February 2016)

What do you have to do to win here? What’s most important?

  • LA Times: Iowa is shaking things up, and the ripples may reach all the way to the White House
  • AP: Blacks in Iowa poised to wield significant sway in 2020 campaign

How wide open is this race right now? What should we take from polling at this stage?

More of the latest Iowa Poll results and coverage

  • CNN: CNN Iowa Poll: Biden leads a tighter top tier in first caucus state
  • CNN: How proposed Democratic caucus rules make polling even harder, and how we crafted our best shot – By J. Ann Selzer
  • NYT: Biden Retains Lead in Iowa Poll, but Warren and Buttigieg Gain 
  • Axios: Iowa Democratic caucus poll: Biden just ahead as top presidential pick
  • Vox: Why Joe Biden is holding on to such a strong lead in the 2020 primary polls
  • Yahoo News: Beto O’Rourke says he’s unfazed by sinking poll numbers in Iowa
  • Talking Points Memo (May 20) – Poll: Biden, Sanders Tied In Iowa
  • WaPo: The Trailer: Why polls haven’t scared off 2020 Democratic hopefuls – By David Weigel
  • FiveThirtyEight: The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary – We’re tracking polls and endorsements, with more to come.

Is Iowa just as important this year as it has been in the past? Can you skip Iowa? How many tickets are there out of Iowa?

  • NYT: Iowa’s Likely Outcome for 2020 Contenders: A Field of Broken Dreams
  • The Atlantic: The Early States’ Stranglehold on the Presidential Primary – By Ron Brownstein
  • NYT: California Is Now an ‘Early Primary State.’ Democrats Are Grappling With How to Compete.
  • NYT: ‘You Don’t Have to Be in Des Moines.’ Democrats Expand Primary Map, Spurred by Social Media.
  • USA Today: Why 2020 candidates are looking beyond the early states and making a broader push to court voters

Who’s running impressive campaigns here so far? Who’s got their work cut out for them?

  • ABC: 2020 candidates double down on Iowa, increase staffing in Hawkeye State
  • Wall Street Journal: Joe Biden Hopes His Third Campaign in Iowa Is the Charm
  • Iowa Starting Line: HOW THE CANDIDATES CELEBRATED PRIDE IN DES MOINES
  • NY Mag: Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren Are Making Massive Bets on Iowa
  • NY Times: Elizabeth Warren’s Campaign, ‘Based on Ideas,’ Bets on Iowa
  • FiveThirtyEight: The Candidates Who Are Going All In On Iowa Or New Hampshire
  • FiveThirtyEight: Some Of Today’s Candidates (Probably) Won’t Make It To Iowa
  • AP: Iowa Democrats warn that Kamala Harris’ ‘star is fading’
  • Des Moines Register: Des Moines caucusgoers have a new neighbor: 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson

Other things to check out…

  • Creators Syndicate: Vetting Democrats Is Not ‘Eating Our Own’ – By Connie Shultz
  • The Cut: Breaking: Nobody Knows What’s Going to Happen in 2020
  • NYT: 3 New Policies From the 2020 Democrats: Policing, L.G.B.T. Rights and Voting Rights

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