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Jane Coaston: It’s Friday, May 8th, I’m Jane Coaston, and this is What a Day, the show wondering if the Atlantic’s reporting about FBI Director Kash Patel’s alleged drinking was so incorrect that the FBI director filed a lawsuit against the outlet, then why is the FBI reportedly going after leakers and demanding Patel’s security detail take polygraphs? So weird. [music break] On today’s show, Russia preps for its annual Victory Day Parade, and President Donald Trump tries to square up with a child in the Oval Office. Huge turn here, but let’s start with the midterms and redistricting. Tennessee Republicans approved a new map on Thursday, splitting the majority-Black voting district that encompasses the city of Memphis, and possibly eliminating the state’s only blue congressional seat. They did so despite massive protests from Democrats and the people of Memphis, who gathered outside the State Capitol building in Nashville on Thursday. 

[clip of protestors in Memphis] Hand off Memphis! Hands off Memphis! Hands off Memphis! 

Jane Coaston: One Tennessee Republican state representative, Todd Warner, was photographed using a Trump flag as a cape as he went to vote for the plan. In case you needed the subtext to be made, you know, text. Because this is all about giving Republicans and Donald Trump more power in Congress after last week’s Supreme Court decision weakening Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. And speaking of Trump’s power, the President got to flex his muscles this week in Indiana’s Republican primary. Candidates with his support beat at least five Republican incumbents who had voted against his redistricting plans in the state. So what does all of this mean for the midterms? To find out, I talked to Jon Favreau. He’s a co-host of Pod Save America. Jon, welcome back to What a Day. 

Jon Favreau: Good to be here. 

Jane Coaston: On Tuesday, Indiana Republicans sided with Trump and voted out a handful of state senators who didn’t support the president’s redistricting push. Were you surprised at all? 

Jon Favreau: No. I mean Donald Trump’s approval rating in Indiana is above water. 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

Jon Favreau: Um. One of the few states where that’s true. Not as popular as he is in like Wyoming, but he’s more popular than like Ohio. And some of these people, some of the candidates won with like 7,000 votes. 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

Jon Favreau: 8,000 total. 

Jane Coaston: Because it’s a primary, like it feels like this is going to be like the most MAGA of the most MAGA voting anyway. 

Jon Favreau: It’s not surprising that like a low turnout primary on the Republican side would feature a lot of Trump supporters, especially if he made it a big deal, which he did. 

Jane Coaston: What do you think that means for Republican candidates as we approach the elections? Because on the one hand, Trump’s popularity with everybody besides Republicans is plummeting with independents, with even right-leaning independent voters. On the other hand, Trump’s popularity with Republicans is still comparatively strong. So what do you think that means where you have Republican candidates who want to get closer to Trump, but getting closer to Trump might make them more vulnerable? 

Jon Favreau: Well primary season is coming to an end. 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

Jon Favreau: It has ended with in many states and then Republicans in all these seats that are competitive to the extent that they’re where wherever there are competitive seats or competitive states now they don’t have a the threat of a primary challenge is no more. The threat of losing to a democrat uh is in front of them and so I would imagine you’ll suddenly see some republicans um just finding some courage in those final months before the election and perhaps breaking with Trump. But even, I mean, even in Indiana, where they had primaries on the Republican and Democratic side and the Republican side was obviously a much bigger focus, like, there was a bigger turnout, at least in Marion County, where Indianapolis is, like a higher turnout among Democrats versus the last midterm election than there was, and the Republican turnout went down. So even in the state where we’re talking about these candidates that Trump backed won, you were still seeing Democratic turnout outpace Republican turnout in comparison with the last Midterm. 

Jane Coaston: This election cycle has been particularly crazy because of Texas and California announcing plans to redistrict in the middle of the decade, which obviously typically does not happen. 

Jon Favreau: Right. 

Jane Coaston: Thanks, Donald Trump. Now, all of these other states have followed suit, and it’s basically the Wild West of redistricting, a word I cannot say. 

Jon Favreau: It’s a hard one. I just say redrawing the maps. 

Jane Coaston: Thank you. See, that’s so much better. We’re just gonna redraw the maps. See that’s, those are words I can say. 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

Jane Coaston: What impact is all of this redrawing of the maps having on the integrity of our elections going into the midterms? 

Jon Favreau: The integrity in the most technical legal sense is still there, but um it’s a race to the bottom uh because we have already seen a bunch of blue states redraw their maps in response to the red states reddrawing their maps, um which started because Donald Trump like demanded more seats in Congress. And you know, it is not out of the question, but by the time you get to 2028 or 2030, you look at a map and states where there is a Democratic majority in the state legislature, they are all blue and don’t have a single Republican member of Congress, and red states where there’s a Republican majority in the legislature, they are entirely red and don’t have a single Democratic congressperson in Congress. And that is a very polarized country, an even more polarized country than we are today. That also means that you don’t have moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats as much, especially in the house, because um you don’t have like a Republican sitting in a blue state like New York or a Democrat sitting in a red state like, you know, Tennessee, and that’s probably bad for democracy. 

Jane Coaston: Speaking of Tennessee, uh Tennessee has already approved a new map that gets rid of the state’s only blue seat. All of this as a result of last week’s Supreme Court decision that more or less gutted Section Two of the Voting Rights Act and cleared the way for states to redraw even more districts without considering minority voters, because apparently you can do partisan redraws, but you can’t do racial redraws. It just so happens that the partisan redraws are racial redraws. 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

Jane Coaston: The midterms are not that far away. How likely is it that the new maps will go into effect by then? 

Jon Favreau: Well, so in Tennessee, they had to pass the new maps, but they also had to pass a law changing the filing deadline for candidates to jump into the race because it had already passed in March. 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

Jon Favreau: So they changed it to May 15th. So now there’s like another week for suddenly candidates to jump in the race. The challenge they will face is there was a Supreme Court decision in ’22, in April of ’22 saying that changing filing deadlines in April of of 2022 was too close to the election then for that to work and so obviously May is even closer to the election so I do think there will be a legal challenge for this but who knows um and then we’ll get uh I think South Carolina is trying to go and I think Alabama is trying go um to redraw their maps. I think those are slightly less likely than Tennessee to work and I then I think Louisiana will redraw because the supreme court decision was about Louisiana that will probably be the most likely to to take effect. And then I bet DeSantis’s four seats that he gerrymandered with his new maps will probably go into effect because the Florida Supreme Court is very right-wing and probably does not care what the Constitution actually says. And then we’re all just going to be holding our breath to see what the Virginia State Supreme Court does, um whether they uphold the results of the referendum in that state to redraw those maps so Democrats could pick up four seats. 

Jane Coaston: In the middle of all of this, Democrats are continuing to overperform in special elections across the country. 

Jon Favreau: Big time. 

Jane Coaston: Looking at what we’ve seen in these races so far, what should Democrats take from these wins as they head into the general election. 

Jon Favreau: I think, you know, it should give Democrats optimism. It shouldn’t make us um too comfortable. 

Jane Coaston: When have Democrats ever been too comfortable? 

Jon Favreau: Never. Never. So that’s a good that’s a good sign. Uh. Just, you know, some folks that hang out online might be might be too optimistic. But um no, I think it’s, look, you can compare to previous elections, previous midterms, compare to the Republicans versus, like, no matter what comparisons, what stats you use, Democrats are much more enthusiastic. They are more likely to show up in these midterms, and Republicans are less likely to show up in these midterms. And the special election results also are outpacing what the polling is showing. The generic ballot in the polling is closer than most of the special election results have been, so I think that’s a very good sign. Obviously the midterm electorate is probably slightly friendlier to Republicans than a special election electorate, but certainly not as friendly to Republicans as a presidential electorate is. And if it’s not as friendly, plus we’re already seeing results that outpace previous years in some of these specials and off years, then I think Democrats should feel pretty good. 

Jane Coaston: I think something I’ve been thinking about is, is the environment for these midterms friendly enough to get some Democrats who I think Republicans would typically think there’s no way they’d win? You know, your Graham Platners who they’re already talking about like, oh, we’re so excited to go against him. Are we in kind of a like Tea Party-esque for Democrats environment in which you could see Democrats who, if we would have tried this 10 years ago, they wouldn’t have gotten into office, but people are mad enough? People are mad at mainstream Democrats enough and people are mad at Republicans enough to get those people into office. 

Jon Favreau: I think it really depends. I think what we’re talking about here is, does the environment end up being bluer than 2018? And I think right now, if you believe the polls, then it’s like getting close to 2018, but not quite there yet. If you look at the special election results, the off-year election results that looks like a bluer environment than 2018, I think you’re not gonna get quite tea party in 2010 only because that was less about the environment, more about the maps being different that we just talked about. 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

Jon Favreau: So there was just a lot more Republicans sitting in districts that were unfavorable to them. We’re talking about like, you know, Democrats, I think, are odds on favorites to take the House. But in the Senate, you’re talking about if Democrats win, they have to win states where Trump won by eight, nine, ten points, double digits, probably. And that’s a taller order. Um, but as we are seeing, not impossible. Like I actually think Platner is not even the, um, the least likely by any means, just because of the partisan makeup of Maine, I think you’re going to get down to Can Sherrod Brown pull it out in Ohio? Whether it’s Josh Turek or Zach Wahls in Iowa, do they pull it out? Does Mary Peltola pull it out in Alaska? Does James Talarico pull it out in Texas? Like those are the four states, I think, that if we need two out of the four of those states, that means that those Democratic candidate will have won by, probably outpaced Trump by like you know ten points. 

Jane Coaston: Jon, as always, thank you so much for joining me. 

Jon Favreau: Thanks for having me. Fun to nerd out. 

Jane Coaston: Everytime. That was my conversation with Jon Favreau, co-host of Pod Save America. Your vote counts here, so use it by commenting and leaving a review on our show on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Please make sure to subscribe, watch us on YouTube, and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. [music break]

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Jane Coaston: Here’s what else we’re following today. 

[sung] Headlines.

Jane Coaston: We know it’s hard to keep up with every update on the Iran war. From the ceasefire to the rising gas prices, there’s a lot going on. But two new reports came out this week, one from the Washington Post and one from ABC News, with some interesting information. According to people that spoke with the Post, a confidential CIA analysis found that Iran can survive the U.S. Naval blockade for at least three months before facing quote, “more severe economic hardship.” Maybe Iran can survive another three months, but I’m not sure the American people are going to be into a, quote, “four to five week war that lasts into August.” And would it be a war without a little corruption? Here’s Good Morning America describing an ABC News report. 

[clip of unnamed Good Morning America host] We have learned that the Justice Department is investigating a series of suspiciously timed trades just ahead of major announcements about the war by President Trump. Sources tell ABC News that the DOJ, along with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are probing at least four trades in the oil market, where traders made a total of more than $2.6 billion, betting that oil prices would drop right before they actually did. 

Jane Coaston: Wall Street traders attempting to make money off the war, what are the chances? Saturday marks Russia’s annual Victory Day Parade in Moscow, a celebration honoring the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in the Second World War, a victory that cost the USSR roughly 24 million lives. It’s typically a massive display of military might and power, but this year things are going to look a little different. For one thing, the parade will not feature any military equipment for the first time since 2008. No tanks, no missiles. Airports in Moscow were shut down on Tuesday, and the government cut off mobile internet access for many in the city. Why? Here’s Sky News on Thursday. 

[clip of unnamed Sky News reporter] There’s been an increase in Ukrainian drone attacks across Russia recently, lots of energy infrastructure has been hit and even a Moscow high-rise was struck just a few miles from the Kremlin at the start of this week. And that’s got the authorities here rattled. They are worried their big day could be disrupted. 

Jane Coaston: See, remember Russia’s war on Ukraine, the war pro-Russia pundits said would last for just a few days? The conflict has now lasted for more than four years, longer than the Soviet Union’s battle against Nazi Germany. And Ukraine’s ability to produce and launch long-range drones that can strike at the very heart of Russian territory has made everyone super anxious. So now, Russia’s big victory parade is going to be less big. Sad. Speaking of storied conflicts with lasting legacies, America is now debating a question we’ve all wondered about, could Donald Trump win a fistfight with a child? No, I am not kidding. It all started on Tuesday, when Trump asked a child a very normal question in the Oval Office during an event celebrating the return of the presidential fitness test. 

[clip of President Donald Trump] Are you a strong person? 

[clip of unnamed young person] Yes, sir. 

[clip of President Donald Trump] Good. You think you can take me in a fight? [laughter] I think you could. I think you could. Hey, that would be embarrassing, wouldn’t it?

Jane Coaston: It would be. So the good people at YouGov decided to poll more than 2,000 Americans and ask whether they thought an 8-year-old boy, an average American, or they themselves could beat Donald Trump in a physical altercation. 66% of Americans said that an average American could beat Trump. Democrats were, as you guess, more likely to say that they could beat Trump. Republicans who were polled said that Trump would probably beat them. I need to be very clear about this. Donald Trump will turn 80 next month and appears to consume mostly fast food and diet coke, and a majority of Republicans pulled by YouGov think he would best them in a physical altercation. Sometimes I really worry about people. And that’s the news. [music break]

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Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, celebrate because Trump’s tariffs lost in court again, and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading, and not just about how the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled on Thursday that the Trump administration cannot impose 10% global tariffs, like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston, and somehow I don’t think this is going to stop Trump from trying to impose global tariffs at all. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Fohr, Erica Morrison, and Adriene Hill. Our team includes Hayley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdock and Jordan Cantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. [music break]

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