In This Episode
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TRANSCRIPT
Jane Coaston: It’s Tuesday, April 7th, I’m Jane Coaston, and this is What a Day, the show learning that President Donald Trump does not know what a secret is, despite the efforts of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
[clip of President Donald Trump] How many men did you send altogether, approximately?
[clip of unnamed Chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff] Uh.
[clip of President Donald Trump] To the operation.
[clip of unnamed Chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff] I’d love to keep that a secret. Just for [?]– [laughter]
[clip of President Donald Trump] Okay, well we are. [laughter] But I will tell you, the number, I’ll keep it a secret, but it was hundreds.
Jane Coaston: Add secret to the list of words Trump seems unsure of, alongside groceries and affordability. [music break] On today’s show, President Trump subjects a bunch of toddlers to his boasts about the war in Iran during the White House Easter egg roll, and the Artemis II astronauts boldly travel farther than any humans have traveled before. In my opinion, it’s time for them to come home now. Space is scary. But let’s start with the Iran War, specifically what’s happening in Lebanon. The war has taken up the vast majority of our focus over the last month or so, and for good reason. But unlike the great city of Las Vegas, what started in Iran was never going to stay in Iran. The wars engulfed the entire region, including southern Lebanon. Here’s CNN’s chief international security correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, reporting there in late March.
[clip of Nick Paton Walsh] Something familiarly awful is happening here. Israel said leave to the town of Nabatea two weeks ago, now life is ground out of its streets. It’s extraordinary devastation. Just helps explain how the South is being emptied, ultimately a strategic part of the Israeli campaign here.
Jane Coaston: Here’s what happened. On March 2nd, a few days after Israel and the United States began striking targets in Iran, members of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah launched missiles into Northern Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Israel ordered civilians in southern Lebanon to evacuate the region before launching a ground invasion. But why would a Lebanese militia attack Israel in response to bombings in Iran? Well, Hezbollah is widely recognized as an Iranian proxy. But in Lebanon, Hezbollah has also operated as both a political party and as a de facto government in the parts of the country it controls, namely the south. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah go back decades, but the militia was weakened in 2024 when Israel killed many of its leaders. And recently, the Lebanese government symbolically banned Hezbollah’s military activities. But Israel believes the group still threatens its security and is willing to strike targets across Lebanon to stop it. For more on what could happen next, I spoke to Tarek Abou Jaoude. He’s a research fellow specializing in Lebanese politics at Queen’s University, Belfast. Tarek, welcome to What a Day.
Tarek Abou Jaoude: Hello, thank you for having me.
Jane Coaston: This is a big question, but I’m curious what you think. What is Israel’s goal in Southern Lebanon?
Tarek Abou Jaoude: It’s hard to tell. So militarily, what has been the goal, clearly for the last few years, has been the disarmament of Hezbollah, right? They see them as a terrorist organization that’s constantly threatening um not just northern Israel, but the entirety of Israel. Um. And whenever this conflict has basically kind of piped up since the 2000s onwards, since the Israeli withdrawal in the south,uh that has always been the stated goal. That goal always kind of tends to change. Even now, most recently, a couple of days ago, I saw Israeli reports quoting military sources saying that maybe that goal was a bit ambitious and um maybe we’re not going to be able to disarm Hezbollah completely. Now, just as importantly, in my opinion, is to listen to those kind of loud extreme voices in the Israeli government, the likes of Ben-Gvir, the likes of Smotrich, that openly talk about occupation, long-term occupation, annexation, settlement, those kind of fringe ideas, they’re not just there, they’re the loudest in the Israeli government, right? Um.
Jane Coaston: Right.
Tarek Abou Jaoude: What ends up being practical on the ground is obviously a different question.
Jane Coaston: Yeah, Ben-Gvir is one to make the quiet part extremely, extremely loud.
Tarek Abou Jaoude: Exactly.
Jane Coaston: So, one of the many things that’s complicated about Hezbollah is that it has been designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the U.S. But they also have had representation in the Lebanese government. Can you explain the political situation in Lebanon and how that contributes to the relationship between Israel and Hezbollah? Because I know the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have a weird relationship there, too.
Tarek Abou Jaoude: I mean, Lebanon in general has a bit of a weird thing, right? It’s obviously, I’m Lebanese, so I’m going to say this, but it’s equally kind of the most harmonious, tolerant structure for a modern state. Um. And also at the same time, the most frustrating, the most corruptible, I guess you can say, the most gridlocked, the slowest. And that’s because to kind of put it in as simple terms as possible, the Lebanese state is built to function by having all its major confessional groups represented. Right? And Hezbollah is obviously a primarily Shia Muslim group whose main support base is um Shia Muslims in the south and the Bekaa and throughout the country in general. And they have an alliance with the second major Shia Muslim group which is [?]. Together they are able to obviously negotiate um having representation for Shia Muslims in the government via their own party. This puts the Lebanese state in a very awkward position, because from a political standpoint, and from just, like I said, the makeup of the state itself, it essentially cannot exist without proper Shia Muslim representation, just like it cannot exist without Sunni Muslim representation without Christian representation, without Jewish representation, et cetera. That’s kind of the relationship where there is an accommodation from the state towards what is legitimately a representative of the Shia, Muslim community. And obviously from another side, they also are a paramilitary group, an organization that as of today is now officially banned in terms of its military operations.
Jane Coaston: Yeah, to that point, as the Iran war began, Israel and Hezbollah had been in a ceasefire for more than a year. But according to Al Jazeera, many people in Southern Lebanon still had not returned to their homes even during that ceasefire. So how much of a real ceasefire was it?
Tarek Abou Jaoude: Not at all, basically. One thing to be certain about is that the bombings have continued, the targeting of specific figures has continued. Um. Israel has not even withdrawn from the entirety of the area that it occupied in the 2024 conflict. It’s claimed to kind of retain these five five strategic points is what they’ve been defined as. So for many people in the South and in the seven suburbs of Beirut. Or throughout um, it’s, it hasn’t stopped at all. In fact, in in response to those accusations from anti-Hezbollah groups to Hezbollah saying, why have you dragged us into this war, you know et cetera, et cetera, um, the response has been, well, actually the war has never stopped for us, for our community, for those in the South, for our support base, for our organization, the war has never stopped. The ceasefire has not been respected at all by the Israeli government. And obviously the finger is also pointed to those Western sponsors, i.e. the U S and France, mainly. As the kind of you know safeguarders of that ceasefire, that they’ve been kind of watching these the you know this lack of um uh respect, I guess, for the agreement and not done anything about it.
Jane Coaston: I’m curious what the conflict is like in Lebanon right now after the ceasefire that wasn’t officially ended. Um. Because you have southern Lebanon, an ongoing invasion by Israel. You also have Israel hitting targets in Beirut. And so I’d be curious what you’re hearing from family, your friends, because there are I would guess that there are people in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon who are like, hang on, this doesn’t have anything to do with me at all!
Tarek Abou Jaoude: I mean, I was there at the end of February, in the beginning of March, um when this latest, like I said, episode, right, to not call it different conflict sparked up. The feeling at first was very much that, I would say, amongst other communities in my assessment of things. Obviously, if it hasn’t been made clear, or if you don’t know about Lebanon, this kind of harmonious relationship that I was talking about is never really harmonious. There’s loads of sectary tension always brewing. And these other communities. Many of whom have now become very steadfastly anti-Hezbollah um have you know started off with that very strong feeling. I will add some nuance to say that I also think for many, even anti-Hezbollah people from different communities, et cetera, when we, I’ll include myself in this, when we see the Israeli advances, when we see the statements of the Israeli government, when and we see how ruthless and and and um ambitious these military operations are, I think there’s immediately there’s a gray area there because whatever someone might think about Hezbollah, they still are seen as a Lebanese partner in this state, right, whereas an Israeli invasion, potential occupation, the knowledge and the history that once the Israelis come, they almost kind of never fully leave, that I think produces a lot of fear in a lot people and does provide some kind of a very, again, slim sense of unity. There’s that nuance there. [?]
Jane Coaston: Yeah, I can imagine that, especially with some of the messaging you’re hearing from the Israeli government, what they’re saying to people in southern Lebanon with, you know, talking about like, don’t hide people who might be related to Hezbollah.
Tarek Abou Jaoude: Right.
Jane Coaston: Or who might be Shia. But, okay, so we know Hezbollah is fighting. What is the Lebanese government doing to protect the civilians in Lebanon?
Tarek Abou Jaoude: Uh. In the South, from what I see, from what I know, from what I read, pretty much nothing at all. And the, in the kind of Shia communities where there is Hezbollah protection and um influence, the Lebanese army was almost kind of never there anyway. In these other areas where, as you said, the Israelis will send messages, whether by telephone, at one point they dropped leaflets over Beirut, very much trying to take advantage of this sectarian divide in Lebanon by saying, you know, you’re not a part of this or don’t host any Shia Muslims, like you said, um or anything like that. Uh. The Lebanese army has also kind of withdrawn when it has effectively um been asked to by by the Israeli authorities and the Israeli military. So there were many reports of these Christian villages in the south, you know, border villages. Um. Effectively kind of almost begging the Lebanese government not to completely abandon them, to keep some kind of armed presence there. Yes, we’re safe, but we’re also behind enemy lines at this point. And we don’t see the state present here at all. That’s another part of that nuance that I was talking about. A lot of people do want to see the Lebanese army provide some kind of support and ultimately resistance to what is, at the end of the day, an invasion of Lebanese sovereignty, invasion of Lebanese territories. And ironically, on the long term, this is what has always been the case in the South and you then find yourself not being able to fault people when they say, well, you know, you haven’t been here to resist, you haven’t been here to protect and this other group is here. Whether I agree with them ideologically, whether I’m even Shia Muslim, because not all their supporters are Shia muslim. Um. They have provided legitimate resistance. And that’s ultimately the ideological divide from, you know, an American or Israeli point of view, labeling Hezbollah a terrorist. For people on the ground, things are never that black and white. And you could be anti-Hezbollah, but then recognize, okay, well, no one else is protecting these people. Right?
Jane Coaston: It sounds to me like this invasion and the lack of action from the Lebanese government might push more people towards Hezbollah, despite the fact that the invasion is allegedly, reportedly from the IDF to destroy Hezbollah. So where do all of the players, the Lebanase people, the Lebanese government, Israel, Hezbollah, where do they go from here if that’s kind of the state of play right now?
Tarek Abou Jaoude: As you said, the IDF kind of very much went in full guns blazing, politically, I mean, obviously also militarily, talking about the final disarmament of Hezbollah, this is it, this is the last operation. And we might still get there, but it’s still at the moment. It’s not looking like that’s the case. It’s looking like a repetition of what we’ve seen before. And like that is kind of the worst case scenario for everyone involved because it will mean continued Israeli encroachment of Lebanese land because they will have taken a few more of those border villages. It will mean Hezbollah remaining in that kind of status that it’s a stasis rather I should say that it has been in for the last couple of years as very much still present and very much still providing that resistance to Israeli forces. And yet um certainly not being able to declare kind of any kind of political victory or, you know, increasing its political legitimacy. And then in the case of the Lebanese government, you ask kind of what do they do? What are they doing? The only thing that they can do, the only thing they’ve been able to do is try and work on the diplomatic side of things. Right, so taking those symbolic gestures, decisions, actions that that basically get them the kind of nod from mainly the US, but also kind of Western States in general. It’s for that reason that there hasn’t been a major fuel shortage in Lebanon like there’s been before. There hasn’t been a food shortage. State infrastructure has not been bombed. The Lebanese only main international airport is still somehow working. I mean, I flew out of there mid-conflict and flights are still ongoing. Presumably that’s all the result of this kind of strong diplomatic effort that you know one has to give to the Lebanese government. Once it’s all over, I mean so much of it will depend about the reality on the ground. But it is looking, I would say, at the moment like it’s actually just going to be a lot more of the same for the time being as things stand.
Jane Coaston: Tarek thank you so much for joining me.
Tarek Abou Jaoude: Thank you, thank you for having me.
Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Tarek Abou Jaoude, research fellow specializing in Lebanese politics at Queen’s University, Belfast. Do you hear that? That’s the sound of more news on the way. But first, if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five-star review on Spotify and Apple podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. [music break]
[AD BREAK]
Jane Coaston: Here’s what else we’re following today.
[sung] Headlines.
Jane Coaston: Joining me is Crooked’s Washington correspondent, Matt Berg, to talk about the big stories. Hey Matt.
Matt Berg: Hey Jane.
Jane Coaston: Ahead of the White House Easter egg roll on Monday, which is an event full of toddlers, Trump gave an update about the crew member rescued over the weekend in Iran. Trump was flanked by first lady Melania Trump and in a special treat for those of you watching online, the Easter Bunny. Take a listen and remember, most of the people at this event are toddlers.
[clip of President Donald Trump] When a thing like that happens where a pilot’s shot down, in most instances, you’re really not able to go in, because you’ll go in with 200 people and lots of jet fighters and helicopters, and you really don’t have a chance that you get shot down. You lose 200 in order to pick up one. It’s a horrible thing.
Jane Coaston: How confusing must all of that have been for the toddlers and small children who are at the Easter egg roll? Also, I want to know who’s inside the bunny costume. I’m guessing it’s Stephen Miller, but it could be Marco Rubio because, you know, when a job needs to be done, Marco Rubio will do it. But that’s not even the wildest thing Trump has been up to. He’s also been making increasingly violent threats towards Iran ahead of tonight’s deadline to make a ceasefire deal.
Matt Berg: Yeah, Iran has until 8 p.m. Eastern, exactly, Trump said. And at the same Easter egg roll, he again threatened to take out the country’s power plants and bridges, and it did not stop there for Trump’s threats on Monday. In a press briefing later on Monday, Trump says, quote,”the entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.”
Jane Coaston: Great, gonna take out a country of 90 million people. Uh. I think it’s safe to say the prospects for peace aren’t looking good. Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal on Monday with the country’s leadership reiterating many of its long standing conditions for peace, including a permanent end to conflicts in the region and sanctions relief. Also like Matt, the thing with Trump is not just that he wants to do war crimes, it’s that he keeps promising to do war crimes and then randomly deciding he doesn’t want to do war crimes anymore.
Matt Berg: Yeah, there are varying counts out there about, um you know, how many times Trump has made threats against Iran and pulled back. I think it’s just safe to say that he has made a lot of threats against Iran on various things, specifically power plants, and he has not followed through on a lot of them, but the threats on Monday seemed a bit more severe than normal.
Jane Coaston: Yeah, I think he’s just trying to get attention, which is, you know, deranged because this is about war. But that would also explain another strange decision he made on Monday. Trump endorsed Republican candidate Steve Hilton in the California governor’s race. Of course, this guy is a former Fox News host and Trump loves Fox News, so it makes total sense.
Matt Berg: Yeah. So it’s all very natural in Trump world. The thing that makes this decision so strange, though, is that Republicans reportedly didn’t even want Trump to weigh in. A lot of times, Trump’s endorsement is coveted, but it seems in this race, it wasn’t as much. And um that’s because California has a jungle primary, which means that the top two candidates with the most votes advance to the general. And there are so many Democrats in the race right now that there’s concern on the left that that could split the vote.
Jane Coaston: Yeah, and if the vote splits too much, the two Republicans could be the only ones on the ballot, meaning Californians wouldn’t even have the option to elect a Democrat. It’s unlikely, but terrifyingly possible, and something Republicans have been talking about very excitedly. But for some reason, Trump decided to shoot his own party in the foot and pick one candidate over the other. This is also coming as the GOP anxiously awaits Trump’s endorsement in the Texas Senate primary. Where Attorney General Ken Paxton is in a runoff against Senator John Cornyn for the Republican ticket.
Matt Berg: Yeah, Trump’s endorsement in this race is actually incredibly valuable. There’s been a huge debate, lots of speculation about what he’s going to do. Republican voters are split over Paxton and Cornyn, which is bad for the party because it gives voters less time to coalesce around one candidate. And um Democrats have already coalesced around James Talarico, the Senate candidate there. In California, on the other hand, having Republican voters split was actually a good thing for the GOP in a strange twist, considering just how um odd the jungle primary is. But let’s take a break from Earthly politics for once. The crew aboard the Artemis 2 mission to the moon made history on Monday, traveling the farthest from Earth that any human ever has before. That’s more than 250,000 miles away.
Jane Coaston: We also heard a lot from the astronauts on Monday as they phoned into NASA during the lunar flyby. Here’s astronaut Jeremy Hansen speaking from the spacecraft right after they broke the record.
[clip of Jeremy Hansen] We will continue our journey even further into space before Mother Earth succeeds in pulling us back to everything that we hold dear. But we most importantly choose this moment to challenge this generation and the next to make sure this record is not long lived.
Jane Coaston: Now, I will say, this is very cool, great accomplishment, congratulations, but as a noted non-space person, I also say, everybody just come on home, hang out in the coolest place on the universe, the ground, on Earth, where good things happen.
Matt Berg: My prediction is that Katy Perry will try to break the record one day, because, you know, she’s technically an astronaut in a way.
Jane Coaston: No. She’s very busy, but I’m always over the moon when I get to hang out with you. Thank you, Matt.
Matt Berg: Thanks for having me.
Jane Coaston: And that’s the news. [music break]
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Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review. Await Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick going before Congress next month to talk about Jeffrey Epstein again and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading, and not just about how Lutnick will appear before the House Oversight Committee to explain his apparent friendship with a convicted sex offender again, like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston. And I can’t wait to hear an entirely new explanation for why he visited the island of a convicted sex offender with his children and nannies. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Emily Fohr. Our producer is Caitlin Plummer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Alle, and Ethan Oberman. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adriene Hill. Our theme music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had help today form the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.
