Israel, Hezbollah Conflict Risks Bigger Regional War | Crooked Media
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September 24, 2024
What A Day
Israel, Hezbollah Conflict Risks Bigger Regional War

In This Episode

  • In his final address to the U.N. General Assembly Tuesday, President Joe Biden reflected on his foreign policy legacy and called on world leaders to “end this war” in Gaza. But privately, senior administration officials have reportedly acknowledged that Biden’s time is running out to reach a deal for a ceasefire and the return of the remaining hostages to Israel before he leaves office. The prospect of a deal looks more distant than ever right now because of the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Nahal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent for Politico, talks about the situation in Lebanon and the risks of the conflict becoming a wider regional war.
  • And in headlines: Former President Donald Trump promised women will “no longer be thinking about abortion” if he’s elected in November, the U.S. promised to send another $357 million in military aid to Ukraine, and the Justice Department sued Visa for monopolizing the debit card market.
Show Notes:

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TRANSCRIPT

 

Jane Coaston: It’s Wednesday, September 25th. I’m Jane Coaston and this is What a Day. The show where we would also love a giant statue of Johnny Cash in our office. Like the one recently installed at the U.S. Capitol. Finally, something me and Arkansas governor, Sarah Huckabee Sanders can agree on. [music break] On today’s show, Donald Trump talks about abortion and it’s incredibly creepy. Plus, the Department of Justice sues Visa. But first, President Joe Biden addressed the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday. He gave a farewell address to world leaders and reiterated his support for a cease fire deal in Gaza. 

 

[clip of President Joe Biden] Now is the time for the parties to finalize these terms. Bring the hostages home and secure security for Israel and Gaza free of Hamas grip. Ease the suffering in Gaza and end this war. 

 

Jane Coaston: But the prospect of a cease fire looks more distant than ever right now. Fighting in the region is spreading along Israel’s northern border. Israel’s military says it has struck over a thousand targeted sites linked to the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon over the last few days. Thousands of people have fled their homes and the Lebanese health ministry says nearly 600 people have died since Monday, including dozens of children. Hezbollah has returned fire into Israel. In response, the Pentagon’s press secretary said earlier this week the U.S. will be sending a, quote, “small number of additional U.S. military personnel to the Middle East.” To better understand just what’s happening between Israel and Lebanon and the risk of a larger regional war I spoke with Nahal Toosi. She’s a senior foreign affairs correspondent for Politico. Nahal, welcome to What a Day. 

 

Nahal Toosi: Hey, thanks for having me. 

 

Jane Coaston: So both Israel and Hezbollah have been trading rocket fire regularly since October, but things have escalated significantly in the last week. Why and where do things stand right now? 

 

Nahal Toosi: Well, I think that there’s a sense among the Israelis that they have tried a lot to get Hezbollah to back off through its rocket fire, especially in the north of Israel. And they’re kind of just done with diplomacy in a way. And they want to get Israelis who had to evacuate the north of Israel back home because they feel like if that doesn’t happen, it’s like Israel has kind of ceded a portion of its territory to Hezbollah. 

 

Jane Coaston: So this is a domestic issue as well, like– 

 

Nahal Toosi: Oh. Absolutely. 

 

Jane Coaston: This is attempting to get Israelis back on side who have had to evacuate the north of Israel. 

 

Nahal Toosi: Right. Right. And regain your sovereignty over a certain stretch of territory, degrade an enemy that is very, very strong, stronger than Hamas. And also fire a shot at Iran, Hezbollah’s main backer, and say, look, we’re strong as Israelis and you’re not going to be able to scare us. This is the tactic that people, it’s called it’s called, this is a well-known tactic, that’s called escalate to de-escalate, kind of like show this force in the hopes that Hezbollah will back down. 

 

Jane Coaston: The president of Israel said last week it escalated its conflict with Hezbollah because it had evidence the group was planning an attack similar to Hamas’s attack on October 7th. But he didn’t offer any evidence. What do we know about those claims at this point? 

 

Nahal Toosi: I don’t think that the Israelis are going to necessarily offer a lot of evidence about these kinds of claims. They often make these kinds of accusations, but they don’t necessarily lay out what they know. And part of that, you know, could be because honestly, they could be hyping it. But also they might not want to reveal their sources and methods for intelligence. I think even if that wasn’t the case, the fact that Hezbollah has been acting out against Israel since October 8th, eventually this was kind of bound to happen. There were Israeli leaders on October 8th saying we should go ahead and strike Hezbollah now. And this was almost a year ago, right, as they were also going after Hamas. So this was, in a way, inevitable. And the question now is what happens next? 

 

Jane Coaston: So let’s back up for a second. Who is Hezbollah? 

 

Nahal Toosi: Who is Hezbollah? Who? It’s almost like metaphysical or something. [laughter] I don’t know. Um. Hezbollah is a Lebanese based Shia militant organization that’s about 40 years old, I believe. Uh. It’s Iranian backed. It’s anti-Israel. And it has thousands of missiles and projectiles that it points at Israel and occasionally gets into skirmishes with. It effectively is kind of a state within a state in Lebanon. And um it’s probably Iran’s most powerful militia proxy and one of the best armed militias in the world. It’s listed as a terrorist organization by the United States. And it’s also a political force in Lebanon in the sense that it actually has influence in the government. So it’s very strong. Uh. And yet, I think the Israelis have shown recently that they can outmaneuver and outwit Hezbollah quite a bit. 

 

Jane Coaston: You used the phrase a state within a state just now. So can you tell me a little bit more about that and what a Hezbollah war with Israel would mean for Lebanon more broadly? 

 

Nahal Toosi: Lebanon is arguably a failing state. It has had everything from severe financial mismanagement and corruption to just a very weak military force. Do you remember a few years back there was that massive port explosion. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Nahal Toosi: That killed like hundreds. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Nahal Toosi: And it was basically because of poor working of the Lebanese government. And the people of Lebanon are really frustrated with their own government. And Hezbollah is, you know, arguably, first of all, it’s armed, it has weapons. And it arguably is kind of the strongest political force in the country. But it’s not like the Lebanese people are necessarily thrilled you know to have this particular group be the strongest force in their country. So if there is this war, at the end of the day, it’s not like the missiles that hit a civilian are going to be like, oh but this person was a Lebanese civilian who liked the Lebanese government versus one who supported Hezbollah. I mean, civilians are already dying in this conflict or war or whatever you want to call it. And it’s probably just going to get worse. [laugh]

 

Jane Coaston: And what would that mean for Israel? Because as you mentioned, Hezbollah is backed by Iran and it has much more advanced weapons and capacity than Hamas and Gaza. 

 

Nahal Toosi: You know, in a way, it depends on what Iran wants it to mean for Iran. I mean, we have seen instances in which the Israeli allegedly a lot of this stuff is allegedly. Right. Because Israel doesn’t always take responsibility, but, you know, have taken out a Hamas militant leader in Tehran. And yet the Iranians haven’t necessarily responded in a way that they could have. But we’ve also seen the Iranians in the past for another attack, send hundreds of missiles at Israel. I can tell you that there’s diplomats from the United States and all over the world working fiercely to try to prevent this fighting between Israel and Hezbollah from dragging in Iran in a serious way further. But Iran has a choice. It can choose not to act or it can choose to act in a very minimal way. And it can also think to itself, look, maybe we let Hezbollah take this black eye for now, But we even ask Hezbollah, don’t react too much because we don’t want you to use up all your rockets and missiles right now. It’s also worth remembering, Iran is under heavy U.S. sanctions. It’s financially struggling. It’s not an easy time for it to carry out a war. But worse can often be carried out on the cheap. 

 

Jane Coaston: I figure that that in a way leads me to my next question, which is that President Biden has boasted about the fact that however messy, however difficult he was able to get U.S. troops out of Afghanistan and end U.S. involvement in what he called the forever wars in the Middle East. To what extent is that at risk now? How real is the threat of the U.S. getting dragged into a bigger war in the region? 

 

Nahal Toosi: So, look, the U.S. is already in this war, if you want to call it a war, because the U.S. has already sent more military resources to the region, ships, uh we’ve helped Israel fend off the hundreds of missiles that Iran sent toward it a few months ago. If things get worse, I don’t think the United States is going to abandon Israel. I think there’s a very strong possibility that we could get involved in more kinetic action going forward. But a lot is simply going to depend on where this conflict goes next and how big it gets. 

 

Jane Coaston: Nahal, thank you so much for talking to me. I really appreciate it. 

 

Nahal Toosi: Thank you for having me. It’s complicated stuff. 

 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Nahal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent for Politico. We’ll get to the news in a moment. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Watch it on YouTube and share with your friends. We’ll be back after some ads. [music break]

 

[AD BREAK]

 

Jane Coaston: And now the news. 

 

[sung] Headlines. 

 

[clip of Donald Trump] Because I am your protector. I want to be your protector as president. I have to be your protector. 

 

Jane Coaston: That was former President Donald Trump creeping me out, telling women that he will protect us at a Pennsylvania rally on Monday. Except he won’t. He is the reason Roe versus Wade was overturned and women in many states no longer have access to reproductive health care. Also, let’s not forget that Trump was found liable for sexually assaulting author E. Jean Carroll, told Access Hollywood he could grab women by their genitals because he was a celebrity, and seems unable to stop making sexist attacks against Vice President Kamala Harris because, of course, he can’t. 

 

[clip of Donald Trump] Women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. 

 

Jane Coaston: You know, when I was a little kid, I believed that Star Wars was like a documentary. And that may be all of the events of the Empire Strikes Back actually happened somewhere. That is more believable than anything Trump just said. And if you thought those comments weren’t insane enough. 

 

[clip of Donald Trump] You will no longer be thinking about abortion. 

 

Jane Coaston: What is this like hypnosis? I’m pretty sure that women will be thinking about reproductive rights even more if Trump makes it back into the Oval Office, especially since he endorses candidates like Bernie Moreno, who is running for the Senate in Ohio. 

 

[clip of Bernie Moreno] You know, the left is a lot of single issue voters. And sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women. A lot of surburban women that are like listen, abortions in. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else. Okay. It’s a little crazy, by the way. But especially for women that are like past 50 [?]. 

 

Jane Coaston: That was Moreno during a town hall last week saying it is, quote, “crazy for women to vote solely based on the right to control what happens to their bodies.” Ladies, be crazy for the Republican Party. Police in Tempe, Arizona, are investigating what they say looks like gunfire damage at an office for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. No one was injured. A Democratic Party spokesman says the damage appears to have happened overnight when no one was at the office, which is also used by the Arizona Democratic Party and various congressional campaigns. The incident is being investigated as a property crime. But with two recent assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump and the election approaching very soon, I personally do not feel great about everything going on right now. Harris is scheduled to speak in Arizona on Friday, where she hopes to drum up support in a state that Joe Biden won by only around 10,000 votes in 2020. 

 

[clip of Volodymyr Zelenskyy] I’m so sorry. I know that you have your your challenges and it’s sad, but but I have to to to underline it and to repeat, we can’t now be weak. We can’t relax because we didn’t stop Putin. Didn’t stop him and his crazy ideas. 

 

Jane Coaston: That was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s message to the American people after thanking them for their support in an interview with ABC News that aired Tuesday morning. Officials told reporters later that same day that the United States will send a roughly $375 million military aid package to Ukraine. The package will include cluster bombs, rockets, artillery, and armored vehicles. An official announcement is expected to happen when world leaders meet at the United Nations General Assembly today. This will be one of the largest weapons packages recently approved and is desperately needed as Ukraine continues to be outmanned and overpowered by Russian forces. And finally, have you ever had to pay an annoying fee just to run your debit card? Say at like a small business or a bodega? The Department of Justice is trying to change that by taking on what it claims is another monopoly, Visa debit cards. On Tuesday, the DOJ filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Visa, claiming that the credit card company is monopolizing debit card networks by, quote, “using its dominance to thwart the growth of its existing competitors and to squeeze out any new options that may hit the market.” The complaint also alleges that Visa makes more than 60% of debit transactions in the United States, and the company charges over $7 billion in processing fees per year. And that’s the news. A thing I have been cursed by is an ability to remember things, not useful things like what day is it or what is my address? But things like random Trump staffers. So if you don’t know the name John McEntee, don’t feel bad. He was a former UConn quarterback, not a very good one. Then he became Trump’s body man. Then he got fired by then White House Chief of Staff John Kelly for failing a security background check. And then he was later appointed senior adviser after Trump canned Kelly. You may also know him from his incredibly charming Tiktoks like this one he made for his right wing dating app, The Right Stuff. 

 

[clip of John McEntee] I always keep this fake Hollywood money in my car. So when a homeless person asks for money, then I give them like a fake $5 bill. So I feel good about myself. They feel good. And then when they go to use it, they get arrested. So I’m actually like helping clean up the community, you know, getting them off the street. 

 

Jane Coaston: And of course, he’s heavily involved in Project 2025. 

 

[clip of John McEntee] I work for the Heritage Foundation on their project 2025, which is in charge of staffing the next administration should Trump win. 

 

Jane Coaston: Well, now Wired is reporting that he is stunningly a total creep who uses his dating app to prey on 18 year olds. Two women spoke with the outlet about their experience with McEntee, who allegedly uses The Right Stuff social media to try and lure women into visiting him in person. One conversation reportedly began about a merch bundle, while the other transitioned from the dating app to texting and quickly turned sexual. Neither woman went to visit McEntee because, eew. See, I don’t know if you know this, but a thing about Trumpworld is that it seems to attract the worst possible people. Like Mark Robinson, people you would not let stay at your house. People to whom you would not loan your car. Like when Vice President Kamala Harris mentioned women who were, quote, “bleeding out in parking lots” as a result of abortion bans at the debate, McEntee posted this video to the Right Stuff’s Tiktok. 

 

[clip of John McEntee] Can someone track down the women Kamala Harris says are bleeding out in parking lots because Roe v Wade was overturned? Don’t hold your breath. 

 

Jane Coaston: My good friend and journalist at The Atlantic, Adam Serwer, coined the phrase, the cruelty is the point. Talking about how Trump and some of his supporters revel in the suffering of other people. But I’d add to it. The shittiness is the goal. Of course, John McEntee, who helped make January 6th happen and would likely be a top ally in a Trump White House the second time around, spends his time posting Tiktoks about how women suffering because of abortion bans are big liars and how much fun it is to trick homeless people while trying to pick up college freshmen. That’s Trump world. The shittiness is the goal. McEntee is not fighting for the working man or the silent majority. He is a shitty person trying to benefit himself and himself only. Sounds extremely familiar. 

 

[AD BREAK]

 

Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you liked the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a review. Say hello to the Johnny Cash statue and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading and not just the DOJ’s antitrust hitlist like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston. And Visa, please stop charging transaction fees to nice small businesses. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded by Jerik Centeno and mixed by Bill Lancz. Our associate producer is Raven Yamamoto. Our producer is Michell Eloy. We had production help today from Ethan Oberman, Tyler Hill, JoHanna Case, Joseph Dutra, Greg Walters and Julia Claire. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our executive producer is Adriene Hill. Our theme music is by Collin Gilliard and Kashaka. 

 

[AD BREAK]