Tensions with Iran grow as the President threatens obliteration, the U.S. government is holding young children in inhumane detention facilities, and Trump is accused of rape. Then Change Research co-founder Pat Reilly and Jon, Jon, and Tommy break down the results of the very first poll in the Crooked Media/Change Research PollerCoaster 2020 series.

Show Notes

Iran

• NYT: Trump Imposes New Economic Sanctions on Iran
• Vox: The weekend in the risky US-Iran standoff, explained
• WaPo: Trump imposes new sanctions on Iran, warns U.S. ‘restraint’ is limited
• The Hill: EXCLUSIVE: Trump: I do not need congressional approval to strike Iran
• NYT: Urged to Launch an Attack, Trump Listened to the Skeptics Who Said It Would Be a Costly Mistake. June 22
• NYT: Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Pulled Back (From Thursday night)
• NYT: Bolton Warns Iran Not to ‘Mistake U.S. Prudence and Discretion for Weakness’
• New Yorker: What Will Follow Trump’s Cancelled Strike on Iran?
• WaPo: Mike Pence just revealed something important about Trump’s Iran decisions 
• The Atlantic: The Question the Iran Hawks Haven’t Answered
• AP: Pompeo in Mideast talks on building a coalition against Iran
• WaPo: Pompeo seeks support from allies to monitor Persian Gulf region amid tensions with Iran
• New Yorker: The Threat of War Brings New Fears to an American Hostage in Iran
• WaPo: Trump’s erratic policy moves put national security at risk, experts warn
• Bloomberg: Trump Warns of More Iran Sanctions, But Not Much Is Left for U.S. to Target
• NPR: What Are Iran’s Options In The Standoff With The U.S.?
• The Atlantic: Trump Goes After Iran’s Supreme Leader
• NYT: White House Is Pressing for Additional Options, Including Cyberattacks, to Deter Iran
• WaPo: What’s the best way to deal with Iran? The nuclear agreement Trump ditched.
• HuffPo: Susan Rice: Trump Should Try Talking With Iran, Not Bombing It
• NYT: Susan Rice: How Did We Get 10 Minutes From War With Iran?
• Jason Rezaian: Iran is outmatched in its latest game of rhetorical chicken. But it might be too late.
• Politico: Trump says Iran and North Korea both have a ‘phenomenal future’.  
• Politico: John Bolton: ‘Iran can never have nuclear weapons’
• WaPo: Monkey Cage Blog – Why weak leadership at the Defense Department could lead us to war in Iran.
• The Atlantic: Democrats’ Grand Plan to Contain Iran? Just Beat Trump
• ABC News: Democratic presidential candidates weigh in on tensions with Iran
• Jerusalem Post: DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BASH TRUMP FOLLOWING IRAN STRIKE REPORT
• Roll Call: Chuck Schumer wants Senate to vote on Iran, after the Democratic debates
• Politico Magazine: Trump Has a Point on Iran. So Do the Democrats.
• CNN: How politics explains Trump’s U-turns on Iran and immigration
• CNN: Trump escapes to Camp David after bucking aides on Iran, immigration
• Axios: U.S.–Iran standoff perpetuates flaws of decades-old policies

Immigration

• AP: Government moves migrant kids after poor conditions exposed
• NBC News: Almost 300 migrant children removed from Texas facility described as ‘appalling’
• NYT: Hundreds of Migrant Children Are Moved Out of an Overcrowded Border Station
• CBS News: 4 bodies, including 2 infants, found near Texas-Mexico border
• CBS: Here’s why the Trump administration says it’s not required to give migrant children soap
• Axios: Migrant children moved from border facility after reports of unsafe conditions
• AP: Attorneys: Texas border facility is neglecting migrant kids
• NYT: ‘There Is a Stench’: No Soap and Overcrowding in Detention Centers for Migrant Children
• New Yorker: Inside a Texas Building Where the Government Is Holding Immigrant Children
• NY Mag: Everything We Know About the Inhumane Conditions at Migrant Detention Camps
• The Atlantic: Why a Government Lawyer Argued Against Giving Immigrant Kids Toothbrushes
• Slate: What You Need to Know About the Crisis at the Border
• The Atlantic: How Family Separation Traumatized Children
• Texas Tribune: People want to donate diapers and toys to children at Border Patrol facilities in Texas. They’re being turned away.
• NYT: Ocasio-Cortez Calls Migrant Detention Centers ‘Concentration Camps,’ Eliciting Backlash
• The Intercept: OCASIO-CORTEZ NOT APOLOGIZING TO KEVIN MCCARTHY: “HE SHOULD APOLOGIZE TO THE CHILDREN THAT HAVE BEEN SEPARATED FROM THEIR PARENTS”
• New Yorker: The Unimaginable Reality of American Concentration Camps
• Vox: I’m a Jewish historian. Yes, we should call border detention centers “concentration camps.”
• Politico: Alex Azar both defends and pans conditions for migrant children at detention centers
• Crooked: BREAKING CONCENTRATION 
• NYT: Emergency Aid for Migrants Badly Divides Democrats
• Texas Tribune: Here’s a list of organizations that are mobilizing to help the influx of immigrants crossing the Texas-Mexico border
• LA Times: Democratic candidates vow to ban private prisons and detention centers
• Vox: As immigrant children go without soap and toothbrushes, Trump and Pence say Congress is to blame
• NYT: Trump Says He’ll Delay Deportation Operation Aimed at Undocumented Families
• WaPo: Trump’s acting DHS secretary appears wary of the president’s ICE raids. That says a lot.
• Daily Beast: Trump Suspends ICE Raids, Demands Swift Legislative Action
• CNN: Trump delays ICE raids two weeks to see if Congress can ‘work out a solution’ 
• Think Progress: GOP congressman worried that if ICE arrests non-criminals, the ‘left-wing’ press will cover it
• NYT: Mexico’s Crackdown at Its Southern Border, Prompted by Trump, Scares Migrants From Crossing
• WaPo: Democrats are developing their own answers to Trump’s border cruelties
• Center for American Progress: Getting Migration in the Americas Right
• Politico: Pelosi: Trump’s delayed ICE raids run counter to ‘civilized human behavior’
• Texas Tribune: How Texans in Congress feel about Trump’s delay of family deportations depends on their party affiliation
• WaPo: Biden accuses Trump of ‘racist invective’ on immigration, says he has undercut progress made under Obama
• Miami Herald: Biden: Our Latin America policies are morally bankrupt. Mine reflect American values
• ABC: ‘Dreamers’ should immediately be made citizens in immigration plan: Biden
• Vox: Congress has been fighting over aid to the border for weeks. Trump just got in the middle of it.

E. Jean Carroll Allegations

• The Cut: Hideous Men – Donald Trump assaulted me in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room 23 years ago. But he’s not alone on the list of awful men in my life.
• NY Mag: E. Jean Carroll: “Trump attacked me in the dressing room of Bergdorf Goodman.”
• Vox: E. Jean Carroll joins at least 21 other women in publicly accusing Trump of sexual assault or misconduct
• The Hill: EXCLUSIVE: Trump vehemently denies E. Jean Carroll allegation, says ‘she’s not my type’
• Media Matters: Major newspapers largely leave new report of sexual assault by Trump off their front pages
• Columbia Journalism Review: E. Jean Carroll’s Trump rape claim did not get enough coverage
• GQ:  The U.S. President Was Credibly Accused of Rape—But It Didn’t Make Front-Page News
• HuffPo: Sunday Morning Talk Shows Largely Ignore Trump Rape Allegation
• Bloomberg: Is the Media Ignoring What E. Jean Carroll Says About Trump?
• NY Mag: How Readers, Pundits, and President Trump Are Responding to E. Jean Carroll’s Allegations
• WaPo: Trump accuser E. Jean Carroll voices frustration about lack of consequences for repeated allegations of sexual misconduct
• Mother Jones: Kellyanne Conway’s Husband Says Rape Allegations Against Donald Trump Need to Be Treated Seriously
• The Atlantic: The Cruel Paradox at the Heart of E. Jean Carroll’s Allegation Against Trump
• WaPo: Have we become numb to Trump’s loathsomeness?
• NYT: ‘I Was Banged Up Against the Wall,’ E. Jean Carroll, Trump Accuser, Tells CNN
• Vox: E. Jean Carroll isn’t alone. That matters.
• WaPo: Trump accuser E. Jean Carroll voices frustration about lack of consequences for repeated allegations of sexual misconduct
• WaPo: Trump compares himself to Kavanaugh in latest sexual assault allegation
• Vox: E. Jean Carroll joins at least 21 other women in publicly accusing Trump of sexual assault or misconduct

2020

• NBC News: ‘Electability’ is the most important, least understood word in the 2020 race
• FiveThirtyEight: What We Know About The Impact Of Primary Debates
• CNN: Populist policy plans are catapulting Elizabeth Warren with white collar workers
• CNN: Joe Biden’s challenge: Sustaining support from black voters 
• FiveThirtyEight: Bulletpoint: Only Two Meaningful Shifts Have Happened In The Democratic Primary So Far 
• The Atlantic: The Biggest Obstacle to Trump’s Victory in 2020 
• NYT: ‘Medicare for All’ vs. ‘Public Option’: The 2020 Field Is Split, Our Survey Shows
• Politico: Democratic group’s poll shows Trump vulnerable with his base on health care
• WaPo: Bernie Sanders faces a new kind of threat in Elizabeth Warren
• South Bend Tribune: Prosecutor Ken Cotter asks for independent investigation of South Bend police shooting
• Daily Beast: Pete Has a Black Problem’: Top Black Leaders Say Buttigieg Is ‘Naive’ on Race
• NYT: A New Test for Pete Buttigieg: Does He Feel Their Pain?
• The Atlantic: Pete Buttigieg’s Crash Course in Crisis
• WaPo: The Trailer: What we learned in South Carolina this weekend 
• The Atlantic: What Sets Bernie Sanders’ Student-Debt Plan Apart
• NYT: Joe Sestak, Ex-Pennsylvania Congressman, Becomes 24th Democratic Candidate for 2020

Pat Reilly

• FiveThirtyEight (April 2019) – How The Giant Democratic Primary Field Messes With Polls Roll Call 
• Campaigns and Elections (December 2017) – OVERCOMING THE HURDLES FACING A SILICON VALLEY POLLING STARTUP
• WaPo (October 2018) – ‘Staying on the sidelines is no longer an option’: How Silicon Valley is trying to help Democrats capture Congress in 2018 
• Medium (December 2018) – Change Research – A Retrospective on the 2018 General Election