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“Fear and electability in Miami.”

Tensions with Iran grow as the President threatens obliteration, the U.S. government is holding young children in inhumane detention facilities, and Trump is accused of rape. Then Change Research co-founder Pat Reilly and Jon, Jon, and Tommy break down the results of the very first poll in the Crooked Media/Change Research PollerCoaster 2020 series.

Show Notes

Iran

  • NYT: Trump Imposes New Economic Sanctions on Iran
  • Vox: The weekend in the risky US-Iran standoff, explained
  • WaPo: Trump imposes new sanctions on Iran, warns U.S. ‘restraint’ is limited
  • The Hill: EXCLUSIVE: Trump: I do not need congressional approval to strike Iran
  • NYT: Urged to Launch an Attack, Trump Listened to the Skeptics Who Said It Would Be a Costly Mistake. June 22
  • NYT: Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Pulled Back (From Thursday night)
  • NYT: Bolton Warns Iran Not to ‘Mistake U.S. Prudence and Discretion for Weakness’
  • New Yorker: What Will Follow Trump’s Cancelled Strike on Iran?
  • WaPo: Mike Pence just revealed something important about Trump’s Iran decisions 
  • The Atlantic: The Question the Iran Hawks Haven’t Answered
  • AP: Pompeo in Mideast talks on building a coalition against Iran
  • WaPo: Pompeo seeks support from allies to monitor Persian Gulf region amid tensions with Iran
  • New Yorker: The Threat of War Brings New Fears to an American Hostage in Iran
  • WaPo: Trump’s erratic policy moves put national security at risk, experts warn
  • Bloomberg: Trump Warns of More Iran Sanctions, But Not Much Is Left for U.S. to Target
  • NPR: What Are Iran’s Options In The Standoff With The U.S.?
  • The Atlantic: Trump Goes After Iran’s Supreme Leader
  • NYT: White House Is Pressing for Additional Options, Including Cyberattacks, to Deter Iran
  • WaPo: What’s the best way to deal with Iran? The nuclear agreement Trump ditched.
  • HuffPo: Susan Rice: Trump Should Try Talking With Iran, Not Bombing It
  • NYT: Susan Rice: How Did We Get 10 Minutes From War With Iran?
  • Jason Rezaian: Iran is outmatched in its latest game of rhetorical chicken. But it might be too late.
  • Politico: Trump says Iran and North Korea both have a ‘phenomenal future’.  
  • Politico: John Bolton: ‘Iran can never have nuclear weapons’
  • WaPo: Monkey Cage Blog – Why weak leadership at the Defense Department could lead us to war in Iran.
  • The Atlantic: Democrats’ Grand Plan to Contain Iran? Just Beat Trump
  • ABC News: Democratic presidential candidates weigh in on tensions with Iran
  • Jerusalem Post: DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BASH TRUMP FOLLOWING IRAN STRIKE REPORT
  • Roll Call: Chuck Schumer wants Senate to vote on Iran, after the Democratic debates
  • Politico Magazine: Trump Has a Point on Iran. So Do the Democrats.
  • CNN: How politics explains Trump’s U-turns on Iran and immigration
  • CNN: Trump escapes to Camp David after bucking aides on Iran, immigration
  • Axios: U.S.–Iran standoff perpetuates flaws of decades-old policies

Immigration

  • AP: Government moves migrant kids after poor conditions exposed
  • NBC News: Almost 300 migrant children removed from Texas facility described as ‘appalling’
  • NYT: Hundreds of Migrant Children Are Moved Out of an Overcrowded Border Station
  • CBS News: 4 bodies, including 2 infants, found near Texas-Mexico border
  • CBS: Here’s why the Trump administration says it’s not required to give migrant children soap
  • Axios: Migrant children moved from border facility after reports of unsafe conditions
  • AP: Attorneys: Texas border facility is neglecting migrant kids
  • NYT: ‘There Is a Stench’: No Soap and Overcrowding in Detention Centers for Migrant Children
  • New Yorker: Inside a Texas Building Where the Government Is Holding Immigrant Children
  • NY Mag: Everything We Know About the Inhumane Conditions at Migrant Detention Camps
  • The Atlantic: Why a Government Lawyer Argued Against Giving Immigrant Kids Toothbrushes
  • Slate: What You Need to Know About the Crisis at the Border
  • The Atlantic: How Family Separation Traumatized Children
  • Texas Tribune: People want to donate diapers and toys to children at Border Patrol facilities in Texas. They’re being turned away.
  • NYT: Ocasio-Cortez Calls Migrant Detention Centers ‘Concentration Camps,’ Eliciting Backlash
  • The Intercept: OCASIO-CORTEZ NOT APOLOGIZING TO KEVIN MCCARTHY: “HE SHOULD APOLOGIZE TO THE CHILDREN THAT HAVE BEEN SEPARATED FROM THEIR PARENTS”
  • New Yorker: The Unimaginable Reality of American Concentration Camps
  • Vox: I’m a Jewish historian. Yes, we should call border detention centers “concentration camps.”
  • Politico: Alex Azar both defends and pans conditions for migrant children at detention centers
  • Crooked: BREAKING CONCENTRATION 
  • NYT: Emergency Aid for Migrants Badly Divides Democrats
  • Texas Tribune: Here’s a list of organizations that are mobilizing to help the influx of immigrants crossing the Texas-Mexico border
  • LA Times: Democratic candidates vow to ban private prisons and detention centers
  • Vox: As immigrant children go without soap and toothbrushes, Trump and Pence say Congress is to blame
  • NYT: Trump Says He’ll Delay Deportation Operation Aimed at Undocumented Families
  • WaPo: Trump’s acting DHS secretary appears wary of the president’s ICE raids. That says a lot.
  • Daily Beast: Trump Suspends ICE Raids, Demands Swift Legislative Action
  • CNN: Trump delays ICE raids two weeks to see if Congress can ‘work out a solution’ 
  • Think Progress: GOP congressman worried that if ICE arrests non-criminals, the ‘left-wing’ press will cover it
  • NYT: Mexico’s Crackdown at Its Southern Border, Prompted by Trump, Scares Migrants From Crossing
  • WaPo: Democrats are developing their own answers to Trump’s border cruelties
  • Center for American Progress: Getting Migration in the Americas Right
  • Politico: Pelosi: Trump’s delayed ICE raids run counter to ‘civilized human behavior’
  • Texas Tribune: How Texans in Congress feel about Trump’s delay of family deportations depends on their party affiliation
  • WaPo: Biden accuses Trump of ‘racist invective’ on immigration, says he has undercut progress made under Obama
  • Miami Herald: Biden: Our Latin America policies are morally bankrupt. Mine reflect American values
  • ABC: ‘Dreamers’ should immediately be made citizens in immigration plan: Biden
  • Vox: Congress has been fighting over aid to the border for weeks. Trump just got in the middle of it.

E. Jean Carroll Allegations

  • The Cut: Hideous Men – Donald Trump assaulted me in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room 23 years ago. But he’s not alone on the list of awful men in my life.
  • NY Mag: E. Jean Carroll: “Trump attacked me in the dressing room of Bergdorf Goodman.”
  • Vox: E. Jean Carroll joins at least 21 other women in publicly accusing Trump of sexual assault or misconduct
  • The Hill: EXCLUSIVE: Trump vehemently denies E. Jean Carroll allegation, says ‘she’s not my type’
  • Media Matters: Major newspapers largely leave new report of sexual assault by Trump off their front pages
  • Columbia Journalism Review: E. Jean Carroll’s Trump rape claim did not get enough coverage
  • GQ:  The U.S. President Was Credibly Accused of Rape—But It Didn’t Make Front-Page News
  • HuffPo: Sunday Morning Talk Shows Largely Ignore Trump Rape Allegation
  • Bloomberg: Is the Media Ignoring What E. Jean Carroll Says About Trump?
  • NY Mag: How Readers, Pundits, and President Trump Are Responding to E. Jean Carroll’s Allegations
  • WaPo: Trump accuser E. Jean Carroll voices frustration about lack of consequences for repeated allegations of sexual misconduct
  • Mother Jones: Kellyanne Conway’s Husband Says Rape Allegations Against Donald Trump Need to Be Treated Seriously
  • The Atlantic: The Cruel Paradox at the Heart of E. Jean Carroll’s Allegation Against Trump
  • WaPo: Have we become numb to Trump’s loathsomeness?
  • NYT: ‘I Was Banged Up Against the Wall,’ E. Jean Carroll, Trump Accuser, Tells CNN
  • Vox: E. Jean Carroll isn’t alone. That matters.
  • WaPo: Trump accuser E. Jean Carroll voices frustration about lack of consequences for repeated allegations of sexual misconduct
  • WaPo: Trump compares himself to Kavanaugh in latest sexual assault allegation
  • Vox: E. Jean Carroll joins at least 21 other women in publicly accusing Trump of sexual assault or misconduct

2020

  • NBC News: ‘Electability’ is the most important, least understood word in the 2020 race
  • FiveThirtyEight: What We Know About The Impact Of Primary Debates
  • CNN: Populist policy plans are catapulting Elizabeth Warren with white collar workers
  • CNN: Joe Biden’s challenge: Sustaining support from black voters 
  • FiveThirtyEight: Bulletpoint: Only Two Meaningful Shifts Have Happened In The Democratic Primary So Far 
  • The Atlantic: The Biggest Obstacle to Trump’s Victory in 2020 
  • NYT: ‘Medicare for All’ vs. ‘Public Option’: The 2020 Field Is Split, Our Survey Shows
  • Politico: Democratic group’s poll shows Trump vulnerable with his base on health care
  • WaPo: Bernie Sanders faces a new kind of threat in Elizabeth Warren
  • South Bend Tribune: Prosecutor Ken Cotter asks for independent investigation of South Bend police shooting
  • Daily Beast: Pete Has a Black Problem’: Top Black Leaders Say Buttigieg Is ‘Naive’ on Race
  • NYT: A New Test for Pete Buttigieg: Does He Feel Their Pain?
  • The Atlantic: Pete Buttigieg’s Crash Course in Crisis
  • WaPo: The Trailer: What we learned in South Carolina this weekend 
  • The Atlantic: What Sets Bernie Sanders’ Student-Debt Plan Apart
  • NYT: Joe Sestak, Ex-Pennsylvania Congressman, Becomes 24th Democratic Candidate for 2020

Pat Reilly

  • FiveThirtyEight (April 2019) – How The Giant Democratic Primary Field Messes With Polls Roll Call 
  • Campaigns and Elections (December 2017) – OVERCOMING THE HURDLES FACING A SILICON VALLEY POLLING STARTUP
  • WaPo (October 2018) – ‘Staying on the sidelines is no longer an option’: How Silicon Valley is trying to help Democrats capture Congress in 2018 
  • Medium (December 2018) – Change Research – A Retrospective on the 2018 General Election 

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