Dems Win Big: A Midterm Preview? | Crooked Media
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November 04, 2025
What A Day
Dems Win Big: A Midterm Preview?

In This Episode

Tuesday was Election Day and Democrats won big! Voters in New York City elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next mayor. In Georgia, Democrats won their first statewide elections in 20 years, flipping two seats on the board that controls electricity costs in the state – a direct response to rising power prices. And in New Jersey, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill won a tough race to keep the state’s governor’s mansion blue. While in Virginia, former Democratic House Representative Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race, flipping the state’s governor’s seat back to the Democrats. For more on the Democrats’ big night, we spoke with Pod Save America co-host Jon Favreau.
Show Notes:

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TRANSCRIPT

 

Jane Coaston: It’s Wednesday, November 5th, I’m Jane Coaston, and this is What a Day, the show that is libbing out! [music break] On today’s show, massive victories for Democrats. And seriously, from New York to Georgia to Virginia, Democrats won critical races, sending a major signal both to the White House and to Americans who are tired of all of this. In Georgia, Democrats won their first statewide elections in 20 years, flipping two seats on the board that controls electricity costs in the state, a direct response to rising power prices. And Virginia Democrats will keep control of both chambers of the state’s legislature after flipping at least seven seats in the House of Delegates, meaning that their redistricting effort can continue. And speaking of redistricting, California passed Proposition 50, which would give the Democratic-controlled legislature the ability to draw new maps ahead of next year’s midterms. But let’s start with New York City. 

 

[clip of NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani] My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty! [sound of crowd cheering] I wish Andrew Cuomo only the best in private life! [sound of crowd cheering] But let tonight be the final time I utter his name! [crowd roaring] As we turn the page on a politics that abandons the many and answers only to the few. 

 

Jane Coaston: Here, bars. Voters in New York City elected democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next mayor. Disgraced former governor Andrew Cuomo was Mamdani’s stiffest competition, but his independent bid was unable to succeed on Islamophobia and racist AI-generated attack ads alone. Weird. Here’s more from Mamdani’s victory speech on Tuesday night. 

 

[clip of NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani] We believe in standing up for those we love. Whether you are an immigrant, a member of the trans community, one of the many Black women that Donald Trump has fired from a federal job, a single mom still waiting for the cost of groceries to go down, or anyone else with their back against the wall, your struggle is ours too. And we will build a city hall that stands steadfast alongside Jewish New Yorkers and does not waver in the fight against the scourge of antisemitism. Where the more than one million Muslims know that they belong! 

 

Jane Coaston: Mamdani mobilized a coalition that included young people and South Asian voters excited by his vision for a more affordable city. More than two million New Yorkers cast their ballots in the highly publicized race. That’s the highest turnout in a New York City mayoral election since 1969. Possibly the final nails in Cuomo’s coffin, last-minute endorsements from President Trump and Elon Musk. To which Mamdani had this to say. 

 

[clip of NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani] So hear me, President Trump, when I say this. To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us. [crowd cheering]

 

Jane Coaston: Now that Mamdani has officially ousted Cuomo, all the billionaires and millionaires threatening to flee the city can make good on those offers. I’m sure beautiful Destin, Florida will welcome you with open arms. In New Jersey, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill won a tough race to keep the state’s governor’s mansion blue. Sherrill’s Republican opponent, former state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli, was backed by President Trump despite calling Trump a, quote, “charlatan” in 2015. His campaign seemed to lean very heavily on ending a plastic bag ban. Representative Sherrill is a moderate Democrat who served for nearly ten years in the Navy. 

 

[clip of Mikie Sherrill] We here in New Jersey are bound to fight for a different future for our children. We see how clearly important liberty is. We know that no one in our great state is safe when our neighbors are targeted, ignoring the law and the Constitution. 

 

Jane Coaston: Democrats have been concerned about the shifting political leanings of New Jersey voters after Donald Trump won a larger share of votes but ultimately lost the state to Kamala Harris by just about six points in 2024. This was Ciattarelli’s third failed run for governor, but hey, there’s always 2029. And in Virginia, former Democratic House Representative Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race, flipping the state’s governor seat back to the Democrats. Spanberger defeated Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. The center-left-leaning Spanberger will be Virginia’s first female governor. 

 

[clip of Abigail Spanberger] We sent a message to every corner of the Commonwealth – a message to our neighbors and our fellow Americans across the country. We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship. We chose our Commonwealth over chaos. [crowd cheering]

 

Jane Coaston: Donald Trump held back from fully endorsing Earle-Sears, possibly because she initially said she wouldn’t support Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign. But Earle-Sears has praised the president’s second term policies and took a page out of his playbook by fixating on trans rights and culture war issues in her campaign. And when I say fixated, I mean that the GOP spent millions of dollars on ads targeting Spanberger for supporting trans equality. Hopefully her defeat is a sign that voters won’t be buying what the GOP is selling heading into next year’s midterms. So for more on a big night for Democrats, liberals, progressives, and people who don’t like Stephen Miller, I spoke to Pod Save America co-host Jon Favreau. Jon, welcome back to What a Day. 

 

Jon Favreau: It’s good to be here, especially tonight. 

 

Jane Coaston: Woo. 

 

Jon Favreau: Wow. 

 

Jane Coaston: We’re living out, we are living out. 

 

Jon Favreau: This feels better. 

 

Jane Coaston: I, I’m really enjoying myself. Unlike the last time we did this. 

 

Jon Favreau: I forgot what an enjoyable election night felt like. 

 

Jane Coaston: An enjoyable election night that’s like kind of over at 8:10 p.m. Pacific? 

 

Jon Favreau: Even better! 

 

Jane Coaston: Oh my gosh. So in potentially the highest profile race of the night, voters in New York City elected democratic socialist, Zohran Mamdani as their next mayor, despite all–

 

Jon Favreau: They sure did. 

 

Jane Coaston: — of Bill Ackman’s tweets. 

 

Jon Favreau: And you know, I thought more words would get it done, but not the case. 

 

Jane Coaston: There was just one more tweet. Mamdani will be the first Muslim and person of South Asian descent to hold the position. He’s also the youngest mayor of New York in over a century. I think the last time it was like Tammany Hall era. 

 

Jon Favreau: Okay. 

 

Jane Coaston: What do you think Mamdani’s victory means for Democrats nationwide? Because I think that on the one hand, there’s gonna be people who are like, take this lesson nationwide, we can do this anywhere. And there are gonna be a lot of Democrats who are, like, hang on a second. Like, this is New York. New York is a very specific place. Where are you at? 

 

Jon Favreau: So I think that New York is a very specific place. I do not think that Mamdani could like win if you threw him anywhere in the country. But I do think that there are two very important lessons the Democrats can take from Mamdani. And one is just his laser-like focus on affordability. I think that part of the message was just, it was huge. And um I think affordability was a big issue. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: In all of these races. But–

 

Jane Coaston: I think that’s kind of the umbrella that all Democrats should be operating under is not just like anti-Trump, but pro-affordability. 

 

Jon Favreau: For sure. And I think he, especially of all the candidates, um really honed in on that message and hammered it pretty hard. But I also think the way he campaigned, like watching some of the videos that his team put out, even these last couple days, it’s like, whatever you think of Mamdani, whatever you think about his policies, like, you can at least look at these videos and think to yourself, this is how campaigning should happen. Meeting people everywhere, talking to people everywhere. He has joy um when he’s campaigning. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, I saw a video on Instagram of his, of him going out and talking to cab drivers in the cab line at night. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yup. 

 

Jane Coaston: And they’re all just like, thank you so much for being here. And it, I know it sounds weird to say this, but in contrast to what I saw out of former New York governor, Andrew Cuomo, it seems like Mamdani actually wanted to be mayor. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yes. 

 

Jane Coaston: And– 

 

Jon Favreau: And that he likes people. 

 

Jane Coaston: He likes people and is– 

 

Jon Favreau: I think that’s a lesson for all politicians. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, it seems like if you want to do this job and you like people, maybe people will be able to tell. 

 

Jon Favreau: Also, remember how he started his campaign. He went to these neighborhoods in the Bronx where um there was a swing towards Trump in a big way. And he talked to all these Trump voters, these people who maybe hadn’t voted for Trump before and they voted for him in 2024. And he asked them, like, why did you do it? Why did you vote for him? He didn’t scold them, he didn’t yell at them. He just like wanted to have these conversations. And that extended to all the different people he met through all the five boroughs of New York, through like–

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: –the whole city. And it’s just like, this is what campaigning should be. You go out there, you meet people, you talk to them, you try to persuade them, and you do it with um joy in your heart and excitement about what the job can be. 

 

Jane Coaston: And not creepy AI videos posted on the internet that make everyone uncomfortable or with just outright Islamophobia. 

 

Jon Favreau: Also a good lesson to take away–

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah it’s a–

 

–from this campaign, yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: It’s funny how that might not work. Um. Speaking of some of the other big races of the night, we got the results in Virginia’s governor’s race first. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won decisively. I think that there was like that weird moment where for about two weeks we all had to pretend like we were super anxious about that. And then some of us became super anxious about that because that’s how we are. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah, right. 

 

Jane Coaston: She beat the state’s Republican Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, flipping the state blue after four years of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, vest enthusiast. She is Virginia’s first female governor. I was struck by how it wasn’t just her. It was a basically a win top to bottom across Virginia for Democrats. What do you think Democrats can take away from that win? And how to respond to two issues I think that proved to be really big in Virginia. DOGE and the shutdown. 

 

Jon Favreau: So I was not surprised that she won. The margin is crazy. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: Like this is the biggest democratic victory in Virginia that we have seen in our lifetimes. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: And um Democrats will, I think they’re gonna have 64 seats. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: In the assembly. And if you look just at the way Spanberger won too, um she not only improved on Harris’s margin from 2024, and McAuliffe obviously lost in 2021, but like even in in in the 2017 win, right? Like, there’s these counties that basically like Glenn Youngkin won by a couple points that have swung back like double digits towards Spanberger. I think that uh one lesson from this is Democrats should not cave on the shutdown. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: Because obviously, like you said, like Virginia’s ground zero for this. This is where most of the federal workers are. And um I think that we’re seeing from the turnout and from the margins that people are pretty pissed and they’re definitely blaming Donald Trump and Republicans for it. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, I also think that an important lesson, which, I mean, granted, this goes for politics in general, don’t try to run the last election because you saw from Winsome Earle-Sears who basically was like, I’m going to run most anti-trans campaign you have ever heard of. She put millions of dollars into attack ads against Spanberger for, you know, supporting trans rights and supporting the rights of trans youth to compete in sports. And, uh, it turns out that maybe in the midst of an economic crisis and a shutdown and DOGE, that was not like top of mind for most people. It’s funny how that works. 

 

Jon Favreau: You know, the polling has shown over the last couple of months that the people who voted for Trump, they’re starting to swing against some of these losing our um younger people, Latinos, Black voters, to the extent that there were some that voted for Trump in all those groups, they have swung back hard tonight. And so I do think that there was a bunch of people in Virginia and New Jersey and elsewhere who gave Trump a chance or voted for him in 2024 because they thought everything was too expensive and they thought he would manage the economy and he has not just uh, failed to bring costs down. He has made costs higher and also in Virginia. Um. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: Put a bunch of people out of work. So–

 

Jane Coaston: And did so, like, excitedly?

 

Jon Favreau: Excitedly. So like, I don’t know that you need more of an explanation than that. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. It–

 

Jon Favreau: The like the whole thing he got elected for from people who aren’t part of his base he didn’t deliver on. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. And I think that again, there was this whole vibe that you got that Trump and his base basically decided like, this was a forever election. We won, we will never be challenged again, a 1.5% win nationally basically means everyone loves us. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: And actually what you said you wanted was a new ballroom and maybe going to war with Venezuela and like you have a lot of voters in Virginia being like, I don’t remember that part of any of this. 

 

Jon Favreau: And $40 billion for Argentina. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, yeah, to be at CPAC at Mar-a-Lago! 

 

Jon Favreau: Right, and we did rename the Gulf. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: And the Department of Defense. 

 

Jane Coaston: You know. 

 

Jon Favreau: There are wins if you look. 

 

Jane Coaston: It’s true. There’s so many victories for those with eyes to see. Let’s take a break. When we come back, we’re going to talk more about the Democratic Party’s big wins. If you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five star review on Apple podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. [music break]

 

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Jane Coaston: New Jersey Congresswoman, Mikie Sherrill, won a close governor’s race against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who was a plastic bag enthusiast, and a former state lawmaker who was backed by Trump despite calling him a charlatan back in 2015. Democrats have been kind of worried about New Jersey because Trump won a larger share of the vote last year, even though Kamala Harris did win but by about six points, which in New Jersey, that’s not good. What do you think that that tells us about the state’s politics one year into the Trump presidency. 

 

Jon Favreau: Turned out to not be close. The polling was uh probably more off on this one than any other. I mean, I think it’s 13 points right now, um which is a huge margin. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: And so once again, I think it’s a combination. Some of the people who came out and voted for Trump in ’24 stayed home. But then in some of these counties with a lot of college educated voters, high income voters who they were getting bluer and then they sort of swung towards Trump, they swung back hard to Mikie Sherrill. And, like, Jack Ciattarelli. He was not um Winsome Sears, right? He was a better candidate. And so you can’t just blame the candidate quality. He’s run twice. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: Everyone knows him, and he came kind of close last time he was on the ballot. And so I do think this is more about Trump and Mikie Sherrill, who was a good candidate and ran like a really strong race. And again, very focused on affordability like Mamdani, like Spanberger. Um. But I do this was a referendum on Trump. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. And I think that, uh, I was seeing a pollster friend of mine talking about how like the idea of this race being close relies on the idea that for some reason people in New Jersey like Trump more than anyone else in the country, which he was like, I just don’t buy that. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: Um, Democrat Phil Murphy has served as New Jersey’s governor for two terms and historically it’s been hard for the same party to hold onto power for three consecutive terms in the state. If we lived in a non-Trump world. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: I think things would be very different. But–

 

Jon Favreau: They sure would. 

 

Jane Coaston: –you would see, if there was an unpopular Republican president, you would be seeing ads from Republicans being like, I’m my own man, I do my own thing. You know, I am standing up for the voters of New Jersey, like, whatever the president wants to do, that’s okay. They’d be, you know, advertising themselves as standing up to the president on issues that matter to the good people of New Jersey. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: You will never see that from Republicans right now. Like. Every Republican either is terrified of Trump or wants to like hug him and pat his head. What–

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah the best that–

 

Jane Coaston: What is going on there? 

 

Jon Favreau: The best that Ciattarelli could do was, in the primary he hugged Trump, and in the general, he just like pretended that Trump didn’t really exist. Like if he went on– 

 

Jane Coaston: I do that all the time. 

 

Jon Favreau: If you yeah right. If only. Uh. If you went on his website, and he has like a list of endorsements, it’s like at the bottom of the list. There’s like a small it’s like, President Donald Trump. [laughing] Like that’s about all–

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: –he all he could do. But it is interesting, like you said, that you know there was the thought that Phil Murphy’s approval rating, that Phil Murphy just being an incumbent, might drag down Sherrill. But, Donald Trump who is not running the state. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: He dragged down Ciattarelli way more, which is not what people expected. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right, so we talked about this a little bit earlier, but I wanna go back to it, which is that you have Zohran Mamdani winning big on democratic socialist policies, which it’s been interesting trying to see the right try to argue that he’s simultaneously going to do three 9/11s, but also he’s going to make everyone a Marxist and also transgender, which I’m like, I I gotta say. 

 

Jon Favreau: Pretty busy. 

 

Jane Coaston: That would be–

 

Jon Favreau: He’s gonna be pretty busy. 

 

Jane Coaston: That that sounds really hard, but like, so much of his efforts were focused on affordability. You also heard a lot about affordability from Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, who you know, Spanburger served in the CIA, Sherrill served in the Navy, you know they just won big gubernatorial elections. They are definitely more moderate and advertise themselves as being more moderate. So looking at all of that, is it just, it’s affordability, stupid? Like is that the message that Democrats should be running under whether you’re doing so further left, whether you are doing so towards the middle. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yes. 

 

Jane Coaston: Whether you’re running in Nebraska or Michigan or Mississippi. Affordability, is that it? 

 

Jon Favreau: Yes, yes it is. And look, I think there’s going to be, Donald Trump gives us um plenty of issues to talk about. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: And plenty of things that we that we should be talking about, and I think candidates will do that. But I think at the core here, again, Donald Trump won in 2024 because people were pissed that Joe Biden did not manage the economy well and that he let inflation get out of control and that he told everyone that everything was great when the economy was not. Um. Obviously, a lot of focus on his age, rightly so, but I do think that inflation has always been a very politically sensitive issue for voters in any country. And so the fact that, again, Donald Trump came into office, and I think people would be more willing to give him time if he didn’t immediately start making it worse. Like he didn’t come in and be like, okay, give me a year and I’ll bring prices down. He was like, I’m going to impose–

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: –a bunch of tariffs. And so I’m going to basically slap a sales tax on almost everything you buy. And then I’m gonna try to cut healthcare. And then I’m also going to try to fire a bunch of federal workers. And also then here’s my ballroom. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: And my Qatari jet. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: Like, what are you doing, man? 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, it’s, um, you know, it’s a different thing for him. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: But I, there were a ton of other races that happened. You had, uh, my hometown of Cincinnati, reelected, the Democratic–

 

Jon Favreau: Half tab! 

 

Jane Coaston: I know! 

 

Jon Favreau: My buddy. 

 

Jane Coaston: Uh beat, uh J.D. Vance’s half brother who notably did not try. Like, let’s be clear here. He did not campaign and did not try. 

 

Jon Favreau: It was like a 50-point win or something? 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, it was a–

 

Jon Favreau: I think it was like the wasn’t it the first time a Republican was on the ballot for mayor in Cincinnati in a long time? 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, it Southern Ohio, it’s a different place. But like, going to that affordability message, I was struck by the fact, and weirdly enough, Steve Bannon pointed this one out, that uh two Democrats flipped seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, which helps determine the cost of power in Georgia. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yeah. 

 

Jane Coaston: Georgia power bills have increased six times since 2023. And that was like, that was a win where people needed to explain what they did, and they still got that win, and they won big by like 20 points. 

 

Jon Favreau: I just want to say that those Georgia races were probably like electorally, maybe the most impressive wins of the night. 

 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

 

Jon Favreau: Because it was, they were statewide races in Georgia. They knocked off two Republican commissioners and by like double digits. That is huge. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: And also in Pennsylvania, I believe uh we kept the Supreme Court 5-2. 

 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. 

 

Jon Favreau: There were three races there that the liberal candidates won. And Prop 50, as soon as the polls closed here in California. They called prop 50, so we will redraw the maps here to neutralize at least um the gerrymandering that Texas has done. 

 

Jane Coaston: Are you seeing any potential bellweathers that we can look to for the midterms? I mean, 2026 is simultaneously tomorrow, but also a long way away. And there’s a lot that could happen in between then and now. But–

 

Jon Favreau: A lot that could happen. 

 

Jane Coaston: It seems to me, looking at this right now, people are not exactly pleased with the direction of the country. And that seems not ideal if I were an incumbent. 

 

Jon Favreau: Yes, I think that is correct. Um. It’s a good question. Like I think the turnout for an off-year election is usually a little less than in a midterm election, right? Um. Although we have to see what the final turnout numbers are, because I think they broke a lot of records tonight. So if you get close to a mid-term electorate, you’re feeling good if you’re Jon Ossoff trying to defend your Senate seat in Georgia, after seeing what happened with the public service commissioners, um and I think a lot of the house seat that are frontline seats, you’re gonna be feeling pretty good right now. And then I think the question is, you know in order for Democrats to take back the Senate, you don’t just have to win North Carolina and Maine and also hold seats in Georgia and Michigan. Can we pick off Iowa? Can we pick off Alaska? Can we pick off Ohio? One of those. 

 

Jane Coaston: I–

 

Jon Favreau: I don’t know. 

 

Jane Coaston: I don’t know, but– 

 

Jon Favreau: But you know what, a result like tonight inches you a little closer in that direction. 

 

Jane Coaston: As always, Jon Favreau, thank you for joining me. 

 

Jon Favreau: Thanks for having me. 

 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Jon Favreau, co-host of Pod Save America. 

 

[music break]

 

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Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, celebrate even more democratic victories like Colorado voting to raise income taxes on higher-income households to fund free meals for all public school students, and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading, and not just about how in Maine voters approved a red-flag gun law and rejected a voter ID bill, like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston, and good things! Good things happened! [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Fohr and Chris Allport. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Caitlin Plummer, and Ethan Oberman. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adriene Hill. We had help today form the Associated Press. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. [music break] 

 

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