• Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day.
• Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted’ movement,’ talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.

• Learn more about The Uncommitted Movement – https://shorturl.at/Qe3UX
• Check out Nate Silver’s polling – https://www.natesilver.net/
• Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8
• What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast

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TRANSCRIPT

Jane Coaston: It’s Monday, November 4th. I’m Jane Coaston and this is What a Day, the show that is celebrating my dad’s 70th birthday. I know, there’s a lot going on in the world, but my dad is the coolest guy I know with a record collection that fills entire closets and more World War two knowledge than anyone probably needs and hundreds of Formula One races on VHS. Yes. Still VHS. So happy birthday to Byron Coaston. I for one, am very proud to be his kid. [music break] On today’s show, we talk about the latest polling with Nate Silver, plus what the uncommitted movement is telling its supporters days before the election. Let’s get into it. Election day is tomorrow tomorrow. More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend showed some good news for Vice President Kamala Harris this campaign. The big one was in Iowa. A poll from the Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Selzer showed Harris up three points over former President Donald Trump. It’s definitely an outlier. Most predict Trump will handily win the state for the third straight election cycle. But Selzer has some serious polling street cred. And yes, that’s a thing. For one, she was one of the few pollsters who showed a much narrower victory for Joe Biden in 2020 when most polls showed him winning comfortably. The New York Times and Sienna College also released their final round of state polling showing Harris ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin and tied with Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump lead in Arizona. Polls are not predictions. Either candidate could win. This race is mind bendingly close. But you know who should listen to that advice? Donald Trump. Because at a rally in Pennsylvania on Sunday, he went on an extended rant about the Seltzer poll, the media and how it’s all proof to him that the election will be rigged against him. 

[clip of Donald Trump] The polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers back there. They can make those polls sing they can make them sing. They brag about it. I’ve got a poll, I’m ten points up in Iowa. One of my enemies just puts out a poll, I’m three down. Joni Ernst called me. Everyone’s called me. They said you’re killing in Iowa. The farmers love me and I love them. But they came up. [cheers] They just announced a fake poll. Hey, think of it right before the election that I’m three points down. I’m not down in Iowa. 

Jane Coaston: He also continued to insist that he won the 2020 election. No surprise there. But he took it a step further on Sunday and said he should have just stayed in the White House. 

[clip of Donald Trump] We had the safest border in the history of our country the day that I left. I shouldn’t have left. I mean, honestly. 

Jane Coaston: Yeah. I’m glad he left. For more on the state of the race and what the polls are and aren’t saying, I called up the polling guy, Nate Silver. He writes the Substack newsletter, Silver Bulletin. Now, he’s been a big voice in the world of political polling for more than a decade now. He stopped by to talk about what he’s seeing in the numbers. Nate Silver, welcome to What a Day. 

Nate Silver: Thank you, Jane. Happy to be on. 

Jane Coaston: So let’s start with the Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Selzer showing Harris leading Trump by three points in the state. Why do you think the Selzer Poll is worth paying attention to? 

Nate Silver: So she is literally the highest rated pollster in our database of like 400 pollsters. And the reason why is that you get a lot of credit in her ratings if you get a race right that everybody else gets wrong. And she’s gotten some right. I remember I was at some party, some like warehouse party back when I was more fun in Chicago in 2008 when the Seltzer poll came out on the eve of the Iowa caucus and had Barack Obama winning the Iowa caucus instead of John Edwards or Hillary Clinton. And she was the first one to show that. And she was right. Obama won by a pretty big margin. In 2014, I think it was she showed Joni Ernst, the Republican senate candidate, in a landslide win when everyone else had it close. And she was right about that. So the woman has a track record and a lot of guts to publish this poll that, you know, will probably be wrong in the sense that, like, I think it informs that Iowa is going to be closer than people would have expected a week ago. I think uh in our model, Trump is still the favorite. But when she does a poll, it’s time to listen. She’s one of the few independent minded pollsters. A lot of people do what I call herding, meaning they just march with the crowd, right? They just look at what the Silver Bulletin average says or what Clear Politics or FiveThirtyEight and then deviate by one or two numbers from that. And that’s all you get from them really. 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, a lot of 47, 48, 47, 48 for the rest of our lives. Conversely, there’s been a lot of partisan polling seemingly from Republican affiliated groups showing Trump winning by a landslide. Democrats have been complaining about them skewing the averages. Is that something you see a lot of pro-Trump polls that are just coming out there to make the averages weird? 

Nate Silver: I don’t know if they’re concerned about the averages, but I think they are trying to create a narrative. In fact, Rasmussen Reports, which is one of the firms that has always had a strong GOP bias you could call it at this point, was discovered in leaked documents to be corresponding with the Trump campaign about the timing of poll releases and the messaging trying to scrap around and see, hey, do you know anyone who would pay for another poll and that kind of thing. Um. That’s explicit coordination and that’s really bad. With that said, our model and the other models have a lot of defense mechanisms against this. We actually don’t take all these polls. The bar is low deliberately. We want to have an inclusive philosophy. But if you don’t meet [?] professional standards, right, meaning that you have your amateurs using like a cheap survey platform where you conduct a poll for 500 bucks and The New York Times is spending God knows on its polls, those polls just don’t make it into our average at all. So when we actually did an experiment and like lop off all pollsters with a mediocre rating or worse, it didn’t actually matter. In fact, it actually helped Trump by like a point or two. That might not be the same if you run the numbers now with Seltzer, and New York Times, Siena, which had pretty good numbers for Harris. 

Jane Coaston: So you wrote a New York Times op ed earlier this month saying that your gut tells you Trump is going to win. A lot has happened in the past couple of weeks. Does your gut still feel the same? 

Nate Silver: Well, the point of the article, Jane, was uh don’t trust my gut because I think a gut–

Jane Coaston: Yes. 

Nate Silver: –is like an emotional reaction. I mean, what happens is that the conventional wisdom, the vibes tend to overstate small swings in the polling. In our forecast, it’s gone back and forth between basically 55, 45. Harris and 55-45. Trump. And until the last few days, the movement had been toward Trump, but still within a small range, right? It’s like a football team scores a field goal to go up 14, 13 instead of 13, 10 in the first quarter. So I think people got carried away with the oh Trump is running away with this and I’m kind of reacting to that. With that said, look, certainly there are some indications. I mean, Harris has bounced back in our forecast a little bit. Her internal polling apparently says the same thing. And maybe more importantly, late deciders. This isn’t just polling noise, right? In the New York Times polls, people who have decided in the past week go for eight points by Harris, and there aren’t very many of them. But if you get that extra half point or a point, this could be correlated, by the way, with the Madison Square Garden rally, which I live right across the street from. Certainly if I were a Democrat, I would go into the night saying we have a 50/50 shot. If you want to tell yourself a story a little better than 50/50, I mean, I don’t really think there’s a basis for that. But we’re going into the last week where if any candidate has the momentum, it’s Harris and not Trump. 

Jane Coaston: So something that has been interesting is that 2016 scrambled everyone’s brains in a lot of different directions. And one of those things is that if you see a poll that has basically a 50/50 tie, Trump supporters will say, well, he’s always under polled. You know, back in 2016, there was the so-called shy Trump voters, the people who won’t publicly admit they plan to vote for him. But he’s been the face of the Republican Party for about a decade. I feel like when I meet Trump supporters, I am well aware that they are Trump supporters. 

Nate Silver: Yeah. 

Jane Coaston: To what extent do you think he’s still under polled? 

Nate Silver: So I don’t think the shy Trump voter thing was ever a thing. Trump voters, like you said, Jane, are perfectly happy to indicate who they’re supporting. The issue is more that they don’t trust polls, especially that come from media companies. So they’re not getting on the phone in the first place. And that Trump is now winning more marginal voters than Democrats, meaning people that might not vote, but if they vote, will vote Republican for Trump. Maybe not vote in Senate races. Definitely not voting in special elections and things like that. But those people are are hard to reach. And if you do manage to get through to them, then they might just not take the survey. Now pollsters are applying all sorts of different fancy weighting and data massaging techniques to correct for this. Look, if you had pollsters applying the same techniques they applied in 2016, then we’d probably be seeing a big Harris lead in the polls. But they’re not. They’re aware of the criticism they I think deservedly took. And so we’re seeing different methodologies. And it’s I you know, look, I’m worried about the polls. I think there are some things that are confusing and confounding. 

Jane Coaston: Can you tell me more a little bit about that? Like what is confusing and confounding right now? Is it Harris’s numbers with older women or what’s confusing right now? 

Nate Silver: If you look at the crosstabs for polls, which is dangerous to do, but like, you know, there’s a guy named Adam Carlson who maintains a spreadsheet of every poll with crosstabs, right? They show Harris losing Black voters by a net of about 18 points, 15 points relative to Biden, of course, in 2020. And by the way, she’s also losing some ground among Hispanics, but gaining ground among white voters. If that were true, you’d expect to see a more scrambled map. I mean, Georgia has far more Black voters than Wisconsin. So you might see Georgia plus four Trump, Wisconsin plus three Harris. Last time they were both plus one Biden. And you don’t see that really. Instead, you kind of see the ties plus one minus one in every state. And so maybe it’s a sign that pollsters are, again, hurting, I call it, or putting a thumb on the scale to try to kind of keep things in the safe range where they won’t get criticized. So I’d say the the number of pollsters with guts [laugh] has declined. And and it’s just so safe to just make an assumption, let’s say a poll comes out, Harris plus four. Right. So safe. Say oh we looked at our turnout model and there’s too many people in the Milwaukee area and blah, blah, blah. Right. And too many whatever. And now it’s Harris plus one and we’re safe. There’s pretty clear evidence a lot of pollsters are doing that. 

Jane Coaston: Nate, thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate it. 

Nate Silver: Of course. Thank you, Jane. 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Nate Silver, author of the Substack newsletter Silver Bulletin. We’ll get to our interview with the co-founder of the uncommitted Movement after some ads. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come. [music break]

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Jane Coaston: Welcome back. On Sunday, Vice President Harris was in Michigan, where polls show Trump has gained ground on Harris since last month. She started her day at a church in Detroit. Speaking to reporters after the service, Harris encouraged people not to fall for Trump’s disinformation about voting. 

[clip of Vice President Kamala Harris] I would ask in particular, people who have not yet voted to not fall for his tactic, which I think includes um suggesting to people that if they vote, their vote won’t matter. Suggesting to people that somehow the integrity of our voting system is not intact so that they don’t vote. 

Jane Coaston: Trump was also in Michigan on Friday, where he attempted to court Arab-American voters who are angry at the Biden administration over Israel’s war in Gaza. 

[clip of Donald Trump] [banter] We’re going to bring peace, you’re going to have peace in the Middle East. [banter] not with the clowns that you have running the U.S. right now. [banter] You’re going to have peace. You’re going to have peace in the Middle East. 

Jane Coaston: If you couldn’t quite catch that, Trump said, quote, “You’re going to have peace in the Middle East, not with the clowns that you have running the U.S. right now. You’re going to have peace.” Sure. Instead, we would have different clowns. Abbas Alawieh is a Michigan resident and a co-founder of the Uncommitted movement. They urged voters to choose uncommitted or no preference in select primaries rather than vote for President Biden in support of Palestinians and a protest against the war in Gaza. He was hopeful that with Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee, there might be some shift in U.S. policy towards Gaza. There wasn’t. And conditions have declined precipitously. And Israel has expanded its war to southern Lebanon, where Abbas has several family members who were forced to flee their homes. But while the Biden-Harris administration has continued to support Israel with both funds and arms, Donald Trump has bragged about his continued conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies at the Heritage Foundation have launched Project Esther, an effort to drive pro-Palestinian organizations and sentiment out of the public square entirely, arguing that supporters of Palestinian rights, quote, “must be made to feel extreme discomfort.” That’s a lot to consider. So Abbas joined us to talk about where things stand now that it’s time to go to the ballot box. Abbas, thanks for coming back to What a Day. 

Abbas Alawieh: Thanks so much, Jane. Glad to be on with you. 

Jane Coaston: So you were on the show back in July when Vice President Kamala Harris had just become the Democratic presidential nominee. During that conversation, you sounded pretty optimistic and you said that it was, quote, “potentially extremely helpful moment for turning a new page to a new policy towards Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims and Gaza policy and in turn, a chance to win your vote.” But months later, in September, the uncommitted movement ultimately declined to endorse Harris. What led to that decision? 

Abbas Alawieh: I remember when Vice President Harris became the nominee, it was a moment of great optimism, and we made a very public offer to Vice President Harris that if she meaningfully turns a new page on Gaza policy, that the uncommitted movement wanted to endorse her. That endorsement is a very specific thing. I mean, like personally, I’m voting for Vice President Harris but for the uncommitted movement to endorse. What that meant was that we would run the kind of voter program that we ran in February that engaged voters for whom Gaza is a top policy issue. We did 1.5 million voter contacts. We mobilized 101,000 voters, Democratic voters, in a Democratic presidential primary. That’s the kind of mobilization we want to do. If she like supports a policy of a stop to sending the weapons that are harming and killing civilians, that would earn an automatic endorsement. But I was really shocked, honestly, that the Harris campaign’s response to us ultimately was, we don’t want your endorsement. We can do this without you. I hope they’re not wrong. I’m feeling hopeful that she’ll win Michigan and we’re doing everything that we can to block Trump regardless. 

Jane Coaston: As you’ve mentioned, the movement’s non endorsement also urged voters to vote against Trump. Trump has said he will end the conflict in Gaza, but I think by that he means I will let Benjamin Netanyahu basically do whatever he wants in Gaza. So that’s my perspective. What do you think Trump’s policy on Gaza would look like if he’s elected for a second term in the White House? 

Abbas Alawieh: I would just add it to your characterization of what uncommitted says. We also explicitly do not recommend a vote for third parties because a vote for a third party in a place like Michigan ends up helping Donald Trump, unfortunately. I understand very deeply that the policy of harming and killing civilians in the Middle East is not just Republican policy. It’s been longstanding U.S. policy, Democratic president and Republican president alike. As I see it, I think Donald Trump is being clear. Not only does he intend to make things worse there, he’s very much finish the job, get this over with quickly, kill a whole bunch of more people, quickly accelerate the genocide. But he also has very specific plans for how to stop and block and criminalize the antiwar movement here in this country. 

Jane Coaston: Right. 

Abbas Alawieh: Essentially trying to create a carve out in our free speech rights against pro-Palestinian advocacy. And I’m very concerned about that. But I’m also clear eyed that Vice President Harris does not intend to stop sending the weapons that are being used illegally to harm and kill civilians. My frustration, to be honest with you, Jane, is ever since the mass killing campaign, Netanyahu’s mass killing campaign started last October and we started raising concerns, the response at every single point from my fellow Democrats has been, okay, but can this wait until after the election? And like my hope is that we’re on the precipice of beating Trump. And I can’t wait to see every single one of those people who told us to shut up about wanting to save our family’s lives this entire time. I can’t wait to be out there in the streets with them, on the phones with them, in front of the White House with them demanding that a stop to the weapons happens. And my hope is that once Vice President Harris is elected and hopefully she does beat Donald Trump, that all those people who told us that they were just waiting until after she got in office don’t suddenly disappear and start apologizing for a policy that supports an illegal occupation and genocide. 

Jane Coaston: What’s the guidance you’re giving now to people who want to support Palestinians in the movement, both up until the election? And there will be a time when the election is over. 

Abbas Alawieh: Here in Michigan, the Republican misinformation campaign is strong, actually just got flooded with messages from friends and loved ones who got text messages with my face and the face of other Arab-American community members saying these people endorse genocide because they’ve said they’re supporting Harris. That is–

Jane Coaston: That’s the most cynical shit I’ve ever heard in my life. 

Abbas Alawieh: Oh yeah. And Elon Musk’s super PAC right now is continuing to send mailers to Arab and Muslim households cynically promoting anti-Semitic ideas about Vice President Harris’s Jewish husband, promises to stand with Israel. And she’s always going to stand with Israel. But in the midst of all of this, the uncommitted movement is providing very clear guidance, A, on what Donald Trump has planned, B, on what a third party vote means. And in this moment, with heightened tensions and I have a lot of friends and family members who are voting third party because their moral conscience will not allow for them to vote for Harris as she belongs to the administration that is helping commit the genocide. I sympathize with that. And also I have cousins who are voting for Trump. I’m really urging folks to extend some level of grace to someone who, if a Palestinian-American or a Lebanese-American just can’t get themselves to vote for the person who belongs to the administration that has killed several family members of theirs, call a few more of your relatives who weren’t planning on voting and make sure that they get out to vote in the way that you want. We need to hold each other through this moment beyond November 5th. 

Jane Coaston: Abbas, thank you so much for joining us again. 

Abbas Alawieh: Thank you so much, Jane. 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Abbas Alawieh, co-founder of the Uncommitted Movement. [music break] One more thing. Republicans in Georgia all have the same goal. Flip the state red for Donald Trump. Some, like the governor, Brian Kemp and other officials, are trying to keep things above board and run a fair election. But a lot of other Republicans want to suppress the vote in the final countdown to Election Day. A Georgia judge blocked a lawsuit that sought to ban Fulton County from accepting absentee ballots over the weekend. You will not be surprised to find out that Fulton County is Georgia’s biggest county, home to 11% of the state’s voters. For more on the lawsuit and what’s happening on the ground in these final hours before the election, I called up Crooked correspondent Josie Duffy Rice. Hey, Josie. 

Josie Duffy Rice: Hi. 

Jane Coaston: So tell us about the lawsuit brought by Georgia Republicans that just got blocked. What was the argument Republicans were even making in this case? 

Josie Duffy Rice: Yeah. So this was a last ditch lawsuit brought by Republicans that the intent was to make it so people could not drop off absentee ballots Saturday and Sunday. They said it was because early voting ended on Friday here in Georgia, which is true, but absentee ballots are different than early voting. And for years, counties have been willing to accept absentee ballots the weekend before the election. It’s really just a sign of Republicans kind of desperation to stop more people from voting right here in Georgia, because the more people that vote here in Georgia, the more likely it is that the state goes blue. 

Jane Coaston: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has said that the state is a huge target for election disinformation. And I think we saw that online. There is a video making its way around Twitter alleging that Haitians were illegally voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia. Because when you need a scapegoat, you can always rely on Black immigrants. What other threats to voting access are underway in Georgia beyond this lawsuit and beyond all this crazy stuff we’re seeing online? 

Josie Duffy Rice: Well, like you said, there are these videos going around that are pretty clearly doctored, clearly misinformation. The secretary of state has said that those can be traced back to Russia and to kind of international attempts to create mayhem in the days before the election. But in general, I think what we see in Georgia is what we see in a lot of other states, maybe kind of turbocharged, which is Republicans trying hard to make it more difficult to vote, trying to motivate people to actually get to the polls and to try to navigate kind of the labyrinth of voting regulations and rules and dates and um processes that make it less attractive for people to actually show up to the polls. 

Jane Coaston: What’s it looking like on the ground from your vantage point? What do lines and polling places look like? What are you hearing from canvassers and other folks talking to you? 

Josie Duffy Rice: For a few weeks, it sort of looked like the Democratic Party had kind of given up on Georgia. Right. Even I’m told maybe a week and a half ago, I was like, we don’t stand a chance. I don’t know what’s going to happen on Tuesday. None of us know what’s going to happen on Tuesday. But certainly things look more positive here. There are people out in the streets left and right. One of my friends was training a new canvasser just yesterday who said that they got involved in canvasing because they listened to What a Day. That’s very exciting for everybody over here. And in general, we’re seeing kind of more people interested in this election. Look. Georgia can be a blue state consistently. It has the demographics. It has the rising population. It has the kind of the urban dynamics that make it a very possible blue state. The question is, do people turn out? 

Jane Coaston: Can you tell me a little bit about what local organizers and officials are doing to combat threats to polling places, election workers, that kind of thing? 

Josie Duffy Rice: You know, the past few years in Georgia, we’ve seen a major organizing effort and a lot more coalition building on the ground than we had four years ago and four years before that. And a lot of those people are putting their efforts right now into getting people to the polls. We’ve talked about how difficult Georgia can make it for voters where the state election board has become very politicized and has gotten much more conservative and is making it harder to validate votes and to verify election results. And so as the state and certain people in the state try to make it more difficult for people to turn out, we’re seeing that effort combated and I think exceeded by organizers on the ground. So I’m really excited to see what happens on Tuesday. I wouldn’t bet the House on it, but I definitely think there’s a chance that Georgia makes a repeat performance like they did in 2020. 

Jane Coaston: Josie, thank you so much. I really appreciate you. 

Josie Duffy Rice: Thank you. 

Jane Coaston: Watching Republicans try to block voters in so many states across the country can feel disempowering. But honestly, it just really pisses me off because millions of people are going to vote anyway. Despite the long lines, the limited polling places and areas that what do you know? Just happen to be heavily Democratic. The labyrinthine rules that make voting seem way harder than it actually is. And funnily enough, voting is the best way to fight back. That’s why Republicans are doing all of this in the first place. So if you haven’t voted yet, go. Make sure your ballot is counted and your voice is heard. You’ve still got time. [music break] Before we go. You did it. You talked to every undecided voter who would listen. You organized. You volunteered. You learned the names of so many counties. Now it’s time to treat yourself by mainlining some election content. When the polls close, your friends at Crooked Media will have you covered with content for days or weeks until the results are called. Here’s what you can expect. What a Day will be fresh in your feeds every morning with me easing you into the biggest stories and making sense of what you need to know in just 20 minutes. Pod Save America will have a new episode daily until the election is called, diving deep into the results and where we go from here. And if the Trump campaign decides to go the legal route, the Strict Scrutiny hosts will be on call to break down what it all means on their show and across the Crooked universe. And because no one should have to be alone with their thoughts during election week, check out Hysteria, Lovett or leave it, Assembly Required with Stacey Abrams and more on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. [music break] That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a review. Take a break from reading the polls and maybe watch Paddington two again and tell your friends still listen. And if you’re into reading and not just about how the youth are saying chat in conversation, like that’s enough for today chat and I am increasingly the oldest person to ever live, like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston and get your ballots in. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Raven Yamamoto. Our producer is Michell Eloy. We had production upstairs from Tyler Hill, Johanna Case, Joseph Dutra, Greg Walters and Julia Claire. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our executive producer is Adriene Hill. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. 

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