
BIRTHDAY BASHED
- President Donald Trump’s highly hyped military parade this weekend was hardly a birthday party fit for a king: Noticeably sparse stands, a squeaky tank rolling down Constitution Avenue, Russians trolling Trump on social media for throwing a lackluster celebration of the Army. Even Trump was seemingly bored to death, sneaking in a quick snooze. Who can blame him!
- Sure, the birthday party may have been a dud. But tanks rolling through the streets of the nation’s capital provided a bleak backdrop to the dire political situation the country is facing: Authorities arrested Vance Boelter, 57, who allegedly murdered a Democratic state lawmaker and her husband at their home in Minnesota this weekend. He also allegedly attempted to kill another lawmaker and his wife, both of whom survived, and had a notebook that listed 45 state and federal officials. The killings appear to be “politically motivated,” Gov. Tim Walz said. Boelter voted for Donald Trump last year and staunchly opposes abortion, according to his friend.
- Adding to the bleak atmosphere, ICE agents have arrested more than 100,000 people since Trump took office — few of whom have serious criminal convictions. Innocent people, including sick children, have been deported. The Trump administration is ignoring court orders and threatening its perceived enemies.
- Is American democracy in trouble? “I think we are in an acute backsliding episode,” Erica Chenoweth, a Harvard Kennedy School professor who studies political violence, told Crooked’s Jon Favreau. “There’s not usually a bright line that you cross. It’s more that a lot of things go on at the same time. There’s sort of an unraveling — we’re in the unraveling.”
- Trump’s team claimed that 250,000 people turned out for his parade, a number that (shockingly) was much more generous than other estimates. On the same day, around 5 million people took part in more than 2,000 “No Kings” protests against Trump’s authoritarian moves, organizers said. It may have been the largest single day of demonstrations in American history, according to a prominent data scientist.
- It’s encouraging to look at this turnout in the context of the 3.5 percent rule. Research shows that nonviolent protests that engage at least 3.5 percent of the country’s population have never failed to bring change — and they’re twice as likely to succeed than armed conflict. (Twelve million is roughly that percentage of the U.S. population. Organizers brought out 5 million people in one day.)
- “It’s not exactly a magic number,” said Chenoweth, who conducted the 3.5 percent rule research, on the podcast. But it’s helpful with understanding how the rule works: When enough people are actively engaged in civil disobedience, it creates economic and cultural influence that causes people from the opponent’s camp to defect. Protests could become so large that Trump supporters begin to question their support for him.
- Anti-Trump protestors are off to a very strong start. There have been three times as many people taking part in protests during the first four months of Trump’s term, compared to the same period in 2017, according to Harvard’s Crowd Counting Consortium. Turns out the resistance ain’t dead!
“We are in historical levels of mobilization,” Chenoweth said, “even if the muzzle velocity of the news coming out of Washington obscures the fact.”
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