Musical artist Beyonce, right, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, left, embrace on stage during a campaign rally Friday, Oct. 25, 2024, in Houston. (AP Photo/Annie Mulligan)
WHAT A POLLERCOASTER!
Is the race for president really as close as it seems? It damn sure is, according to Kamala Harris’s own longtime pollster. What’s more, he cautions: Don’t be fooled into believing Donald Trump is gaining steam.
- Anyone dialed into a group chat with anxious Democrats right now could be forgiven for thinking that former President Donald Trump has somehow broken the logjam of this campaign, and is now Godzilla-stomping his way through the swing states to another presidential term. The race for president, in fact, remains a toss-up, according to a guy with access to better private polling than the rest of us normies have ever seen. That would be Vice President Kamala Harris’ own pollster, David Binder, speaking in a rare, exclusive interview for a special episode of Pod Save America that will air this Sunday.
- “We do not see momentum for Mr. Trump,” Binder told Crooked’s polling guru Dan Pfeiffer, who also hosts the Pollercoaster podcast. “Not totally sure where the momentum stories are coming from … when you look at the Electoral College, the seven states that are in play, the battleground states, all of them are still within the margin of error. And you might see a point moving toward Trump in some states, and a point moving toward Harris in some states — I don’t see any sign of a late break at this point.”
- Who are the truly undecided voters left in this incredibly tight, coin-toss election? They’re people torn between rose-tinted memories of the Trump-era economy, and concerns about his extraordinary character flaws, according to Binder. “They’re telling us that they’re conflicted,” Binder says, between their hopes for an economic boost, and their fears about Trump’s angry, divisive, hateful, mad king routine.
Should Harris emphasize her own plans for the future, or the perils of a second Trump term? The answer is both, according to Binder. Trump’s own former aides are some of the best surrogates for the latter message.
- People who actually worked under Trump are increasingly coming out of the woodwork to warn about his authoritarian instincts as the election draws near. More than a dozen former top aides signed a letter released today in support of former Chief of Staff John Kelly, who warned earlier this week that Trump meets the definition of a fascist and will try to govern like a dictator. “There are moments in history where it becomes necessary to put country over party. This is one of those moments,” they wrote. Former Republican Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are effective GOP messengers, Binder said. Those who have deserted Trump’s camp may help sway undecided voters in the final days.
- “On the stump, the former Trump staff that have now come out for her” are vitally important messengers, Binder said. They are “people that were within the White House administration that were working for Trump, wanted his administration to succeed.”
- MAGAworld has a long-standing tendency to generate defectors who come to realize that their leader is cuckoo bananas, and dangerous too. However, the past week has signaled a new era in American politics, in which former high-ranking officials are using the word “fascist” about their old boss.
The question now becomes, with less than two weeks to go before Election Day, whether that message, or anything else, can break the deadlock in this race.
A GAME OF CAT AND MUSK
Billionaire conspiracy theorist Elon Musk has a message for the Justice Department: Catch me if you can!
Musk has emerged as Donald Trump’s hype man from hell over the past few months, recently launching a $1 million daily sweepstakes for any registered voter from a swing state who signs a petition tied to his pro-Trump super PAC. This week, the Department of Justice warned Musk that the giveaway might violate federal law. After that, Musk skipped a beat, and didn’t give out a big fat check on Wednesday. There was a glimmer of hope that he would sit down and shut up.
So much for that. Musk awarded two $1 million prizes late on Thursday, effectively telling the DOJ to go kick rocks.
Musk’s refusal to back down sets up a game of chicken between the world’s richest man and American federal law enforcement. It’s unclear what what the DOJ might do next about Musk’s unorthodox political spending spree, with the election less than two weeks away. Plenty of campaign law experts and Democrats have declared themselves aghast at the multi-million dollar giveaway direct to voters.
“Can you imagine how the MAGA right would respond if George Soros said he was going to give a million dollars away to everybody who’s registered to vote by the end of this week?” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), the top Democrat on the House Oversight committee, told What A Day earlier this week. “It’s clearly creating a financial inducement to registration from a particular partisan or ideological perspective.”
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"We're like a garbage can for the world.”
— Donald Trump comparing immigrants to trash.
NEWS NEWS NEWS
A conservative U.S. appeals court sided ruled against a Mississippi law that allows mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day, siding with Republicans. The ruling from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, which is composed of Trump-appointed judges, is likely to be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he supports Israel’s military offensive efforts against Hamas and Iran, according to the Washington Post. Big surprise there!
Elon Musk has had several conversations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin since late 2022 — including one in which Putin reportedly asked the tech bro to not activate his Starlink internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, according to the Wall Street Journal. NASA chief Bill Nelson, who works with Musk’s SpaceX company often, said that the ties should be investigated.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is trying to sway voters by appealing to a “very shallow, very weak version of masculinity,” Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), his opponent, told Pod Save America today. How anyone could look at… Ted Cruz as a paragon of masculinity is something we’re still trying to figure out.
The Washington Post’s editorial board won’t endorse a U.S. presidential candidate for the first time since the 1980s, even though the paper has repeatedly called Trump unfit to serve as president. WaPo owner Jeff Bezos reportedly ordered the board to withhold its endorsement (of Kamala Harris), according to NPR. An editor-at-large resigned because of the move, Semafor reports.
Three people have resigned from the Los Angeles Times’s editorial board in the past week after its owner, too, blocked the paper from endorsing a candidate for president. Starting to think that maybe billionaires aren’t so good after all?
Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), who leads the MAGA-stuffed House Freedom Caucus, suggested that North Carolina lawmakers should consider allowing electors to cast their votes for Trump before votes are even counted, trying to rationalize this obviously undemocratic move by using the damage from Hurricane Helene. You’re not even from North Carolina, Andy!!!
CFR Spotlights Foreign Policy in the U.S. Presidential Election
In the run-up to the November presidential election, the Council on Foreign Relations has launched Election 2024, an initiative that offers a wide range of resources–including a content hub, candidate tracker, podcasts, videos, and more–to help voters better understand the critical international issues at stake.
Elections matter. Leaders matter. The world matters.
