STATE OF PLAY

Donald Trump seems serious about punishing Canada if the country recognizes Palestine — even if it hurts the U.S. economy.

• Just when you thought President Donald Trump’s global trade war couldn’t get wackier, he kicks it up another notch. This time, he’s threatening to thwack Canada with hefty tariffs if it dares to take an independent stand on Israel’s war in Gaza. This new standoff is ramping up hours before Trump’s self-imposed Aug. 1 deadline for countries to make trade deals with the U.S., or else face levies on their exports — and Trump is threatening to make American consumers collateral damage. Here’s how it all shakes down.
• Last night, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would recognize Palestine as a country if Israel doesn’t end its war in the Gaza Strip. “That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!” Trump mused on Truth Social just after midnight.
• Canada is just one of many countries raising diplomatic pressure on Israel to curtail its deadly war in Gaza. More than 60,000 Palestinians — including some 18,500 children — have been killed in the conflict, which experts increasingly describe as a genocide. Over a dozen countries that long supported Israel are now threatening to recognize Palestine at the United Nations. That would underscore Israel’s deepening isolation and give the Palestinian cause a long-sought diplomatic victory.
• But Trump is now attempting to use tariffs to bend foreign countries to his will. Carney would be “rewarding Hamas if he recognizes a Palestinian state, and [Trump] doesn’t think they should be rewarded,” a White House official told What A Day. “So he is not going to do that. President Trump’s focus is on getting people fed.”
• Fact check: Canada will only recognize Palestine if the Palestinian Authority — which currently exercises limited authority in the West Bank — holds elections next year and bars Hamas from taking part, Carney said.

If Trump follows through, he’d deal a blow to American consumers, just as the economic strains of his policies are growing.

• Trump’s trade war is already boosting prices at home. Dawn dish soap, Charmin toilet paper, Crest toothpaste and Tide detergent are about to become more expensive, thanks to these bewildering tariffs.
• Six in 10 Americans blame the president for driving up their cost of living, according to a new survey. Even the arch-conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board threw cold water on news that the U.S. economy grew 3 percent last quarter, pointing out that the topline figure increased largely because imports collapsed (and imports are subtracted from the total Gross Domestic Product figure by definition, because they aren’t domestic).
• Trump’s position doesn’t seem popular. A majority of Americans now disapprove of Israel’s operations in Gaza. Last night, a record number of Democratic senators voted on a largely symbolic resolution to stop selling weapons to Israel. (Here’s a list of the Democratic senators who didn’t back cutting off weapons to Israel — all of whom have accepted money from pro-Israeli groups, according to public records.)
• Trump’s stance isn’t even coherent: He told the U.K. last week to go ahead and do exactly what he’s now threatening Canada for even thinking about. “It’s another example of sclerotic, chaotic, and frankly un-strategic policy after Trump seemed to give the U.K. a green light to recognize the state of Palestine if they wanted to,” a former Biden administration official who worked on foreign policy told What A Day.

If you’re interested in what’s happening in Gaza, check out this engaging debate between Zeteo’s Mehdi Hasan and J Street’s Jeremy Ben-Ami on Pod Save America, hosted by Crooked’s Tommy Vietor.

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