A MARKED MANOSPHERE

The Harris and Trump campaigns are scrambling to get disengaged voters to the polls on election day, and trying out novel ways to reach them. Yes, even the internet’s newest celebrity, “Hawk Tuah” girl, is getting dragged into this campaign.

• Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remain stunningly, bafflingly, frustratingly, mind-numbingly, tied in the battleground states, according to a new poll released today. One of the most eventful political years of anyone’s lifetime has somehow failed to change many voters’ minds — despite a string of mind-boggling reversals, criminal drama, a candidate change, environmental disasters, foreign wars and assassination attempts. Just consider the latest hot take from supposed polling guru Nate Silver, who, today, gave us this incomprehensible chestnut about recent micro-fluctuations in the data: “The race is on the verge of becoming truly 50/50 rather than virtually 50/50. But this is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise.” Cool! Thanks, Nate! Helpful. So now we’re pondering the difference between “truly 50/50” and “virtually 50/50.” This is gonna be a long October.

• The upshot is that both campaigns are now seeking ways to break the logjam by reaching folks who still aren’t sure who to vote for… because they normally don’t vote. These are the least-interested voters — who could make all the difference. “In key battlegrounds, Trump’s best bet remains high turnout of less engaged voters,” Dave Wasserman, an editor at Cook Political Report, tweeted after releasing the organization’s final swing state poll before the election.

• That’s where your bros and estranged uncles come into play. In recent weeks, Trump’s campaign has been increasingly focusing on reaching out to low-propensity voters, otherwise known as people who typically just don’t give a shit. The Nelk Boys, right-wing “pranksters” with millions of YouTube and podcast viewers, are creating a multi-million dollar get-out-the-vote campaign targeting young men. Ads may run on sports gambling sites, and another is expected to be on the popular podcast run by Haliey Welch, aka “Hawk Tuah” girl, according to Politico. It’s also worth noting that Trump’s main spokesperson is a former UFC staffer known for ridiculing Democrats with questionable language.

• Harris seems to be largely ceding the younger bro vote, where Trump has an advantage and where, we should note, many influencers have ties to white nationalism and incel culture. But she’s making her own unorthodox media forays. Earlier this week, the veep sat down with Alex Cooper’s incredibly popular “Call Her Daddy” podcast to talk about women’s reproductive rights, domestic violence, and other . She then appeared on Howard Stern’s radio show, (which has an audience that’s 73 percent male and 85 percent white), and The View (the most-watched network television show with a massive female audience).

If you want to make a difference in the November election, the best way seems to be giving your politically ambivalent, libertarian-curious Uncle Leroy a call. Or your best bro.

MILTON, MILTOFF

Hurricane Milton left an estimated 3.2 million people without power and killed at least 11. But as the storm exited the eastern side of the Florida peninsula this morning, where it’s expected to dissipate over the Atlantic, early assessments indicated that the storm didn’t hit Florida as hard as many had feared.

Much of the damage across the Sunshine State was caused by 38 tornadoes that sprang up ahead of the hurricane, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell told MSNBC today. Sarasota appeared to see the heaviest damage, while Tampa avoided a direct hit. Still, some areas on the coast saw storm surges up to 10 feet deep. “The evacuation orders saved lives,” Criswell said. More than 5.5 million people were told to leave their homes. Milton weakened to a Category 1 hurricane today after briefly reaching Category 5 while brewing in the Gulf of Mexico.

Again: There’s a big climate change lesson here. FEMA is now struggling under the strain of repeated natural disasters. The agency has spent almost half of its entire budget already — just eight days into the fiscal year. Congress will likely have to approve more funding soon, otherwise FEMA will have to restrict its spending as disaster relief efforts ramp up in the coming days. Warmer ocean waters make hurricanes more intense, and researchers found that high sea temperatures — which fueled both Hurricane Helene and Milton — were 200 to 500 times more likely because of climate change.

NEWS NEWS NEWS

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 22 people in Beirut today, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. In Gaza, an Israeli strike on a school-turned-shelter killed 27 people, according to Palestinian medical officials. Israel claimed it attacked militants, but people sheltering in the building said that it struck a meeting of aid workers, the Associated Press reports.

Harris has raised a record $1 billion since her campaign launched less than 80 days ago. But the funds won’t entirely cover costly strategies in swing states. “We are in the margin of error. This will come down to grinding it out,” a campaign insider told the Washington Post.

Meanwhile, Trump isn’t exactly making it rain (…dollars; never mind the burgeoning right-wing conspiracy theory that politicians control the weather). Fewer than a third of donations to his campaign have come from small-dollar donors, or those who give less than $200. In 2020, nearly half of all his donations came from that group. You’re telling me he has to rely on the mega-wealthy to have a chance?

Kamala Harris agreed to take part in a CNN town hall on October 23. The outlet also offered Donald Trump his own town hall, after he declined to a second debate against the veep. His campaign hasn’t responded to the offer yet.

The inflation rate fell to 2.4 percent, the lowest it’s been in three years, but higher than analysts expected. Also, filings for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest they’ve been in a year — believed to be caused by Hurricane Helene and the Boeing strike.

Republicans have a good shot at taking control of the Senate in November, according to a New York Times / Siena College poll released today. That’s because Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is well behind his racist opponent, and Republicans will almost certainly pick up a seat after Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) retires this year. So it looks like ol’ West Virginia Joe might be leaving us all a little lump of coal in our stockings this year.

Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) spoke with our friends at Hysteria about her historic term representing the Golden State and her friendship with VP Harris. She’s not seeking re-election, but “I never say never … to doing it again.”

Ethel Kennedy, the social activist and wife of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, died today at 96 years old. She leaves behind nine children, 34 grandchildren and 24 great-great grandchildren.